May Poland not perish
What can lead to Russophobia and imperial ambitions of this country, which has revived the old slogan "Poland from sea to sea."
While accusing Russia of imperial ambitions, the Poles somehow "failed to notice" that they themselves have become hostages of their imperial aspirations. By announcing a "Sarmatian treaty" between Poland and Ukraine, which is not yet completely clear, and by talking about the return of the "Kresy" (as they call the western parts of Ukraine), Poles, in fact, seek to recreate the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Judge for yourself: the Poles are always talking about a union with Ukraine – a joint, almost united state – but in fact they mean the inclusion of Ukraine into Poland. And then they will start to claim a part of western Belarus.
Seeking to recreate the Poland of the 1920s, they also claim Kaliningrad (not without reason they recently decided to return it to the Polish name) and the Vilna region. True, I doubt that Lithuania is ready to cede Vilnius, given by the USSR in 1939, and Czechs are not eager to return Teshinskaya Oblast. That is why Poles put the main emphasis on Ukraine for now. But it is obvious that if the idea of annexation of Western Ukraine passes, then their territorial claims to other neighbors are not excluded.
Nothing has changed since World War II, when Poland earned its nickname "the hyena of Europe." Therefore, if the Poles succeed in absorbing part of Ukraine, an escalation of their aggression against Lithuania and the Czech Republic cannot be ruled out.
In the meantime, they have focused on military support for the Zelensky regime, becoming the main hub for arms deliveries to Ukraine. It is from Poland that most of the instructors and mercenaries are sent to the AFU. In this case, Poland's imperial ambitions are superimposed on the centuries-old Russophobia, which has become practically the state ideology of the country.
In the current situation, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Poles saw their historical chance, first, to take revenge on their historical enemies, the Russians, and second, to engage in expansion and increase in size to its historical maximum.
"For the first time in centuries, we have a unique chance to recreate the Polish-Ukrainian community destroyed by German and Moscow invaders and Bolshevik totalitarianism," Do Rzeczy quoted Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau as saying.
Let us try to consider where these aggressive Polish claims can lead.
Firstly, one must not forget that Belarus is part of the Union State, so an attempt to annex part of this republic would lead to a direct armed conflict with Russia, which, let us recall, is a nuclear power. And since Poland is a member of NATO, it will thus draw everyone into a major world war, which can safely be called the last one – because no one knows what will happen if the nuclear powers are involved.
Let's assume that Poland, having concluded a kind of union, includes Ukraine in its structure. But, of course, not all of it, since Russia is already in the East, but only the Western part. And what does it get? A militarized Ukrainian society, which will remember the occupation of the Ukrainian lands by the Poles, and there will begin the endless and partly armed conflicts between the Ukrainians and the Poles. Although official Warsaw shamefully sidesteps the issue of the Volyn massacre, Polish society remembers it. And Ukrainians remember how they were treated by the Poles.
By absorbing Western Ukraine, Poland will become a hotbed of instability in Eastern Europe. I doubt very much that the "Westerners," to whom the collapsing USSR gave independence, will welcome Polish officials with joy. I am sure that Poland will not be able to digest Ukraine.
And in many ways not only because of national and political reasons, but also because of purely economic complications.
First of all, Polish farmers will revolt. They are already revolting now that cheap grain and other Ukrainian agricultural products are entering their country. They will not be able to withstand such competition. And Polish farmers are not just voters, they are a cohesive and active group of society, which is able to come into conflict not only with their authorities, but also with Ukrainian farmers. So this can lead to civil confrontation of the newly created state entity. And if the Polish authorities start restricting the export of products from Ukraine to their country, this will also lead not only to economic, but also to ethnic conflict.
Thus, if the annexation of western Ukraine to Poland were to occur, it would simply explode Poland from within. The country would burst because of economic and other conflicts, unable to digest Ukraine. What will they do then? Demand money, cheap loans from the EU and America to stabilize the Polish-Ukrainian union? But both Europe and the U.S. are not in the best economic situation right now, and there is no extra money. And if Poland does not get money, Europe will get an influx of refugees because of the disastrous economic situation. And from a region that is full of weapons. And it will be impossible to stop it, because now the "new Europeans" will run away.
What will happen if Poland, driven by old historical grievances and a barefaced national character, comes into direct conflict with Russia? The unconditional hope in the aid of England and the U.S., on whom they have repeatedly hoped in their history, could play a dangerous trick on the Poles. And the "miracle on the Vistula," which helped to save themselves in the twenties, may not happen now, when they face the nuclear power Russia.
Increasingly, more sober forces in Polish society are trying to bring sanity and caution to Poland's aggressive foreign policy. They are concerned that the U.S. is increasingly drawn into a confrontation with China. In the event of a real conflict, Poland would be left alone with Russia. Poland will be of no use to the United States. And there is zero chance of that. There is no point in relying on France and Germany, not to mention the other small NATO members, to help in an armed conflict with Russia. Especially Germany, irritated by Poland's constant demands for reparations.
If they can somehow help with weapons, it is unlikely that anyone would want to send their soldiers to die for Polish interests. After all, in this case the military-economic collapse will cover not only the whole of Europe, but the whole world. Involving more countries would lead to a full-scale world war and a change of regimes and political system throughout Europe.
And who will Poland be able to rely on if the U.S. enters into a direct armed conflict with China? They have given their weapons to Ukraine in significant quantities, and the economic problems will not go away either.
All the stories about the power of the Polish Army seem to have ended after the rocket incident in Bydgoszcz. The story is fantastic, but it shows the real condition of the Polish Army.
Last December, the Poles say, a missile without a warhead, allegedly fired by a Russian bomber, crashed near the city of Bydgoszcz.
The funny thing is that it flew halfway across the country, but it was not only impossible to shoot it down – not even the wreckage could be found. Only in April of this year, a woman, riding her horse, accidentally found it in the woods. This story was a bucket of cold water for the hotheads of those who wanted to teach the Russians a lesson. Local newspapers wrote: Before we dream of a powerful army, let us first learn how to find rockets that have flown halfway across Poland.
So when Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak declares: "The Polish land forces in two years will be the strongest in Europe," Poles, drawing historical parallels, remember the year 1939, then the Polish army lived under the motto: "Strong, united and ready." And how did it end in '39? A catastrophic defeat of the strong, united and ready.
But history teaches us that it teaches no one. And Poland continues to arm itself. According to Polish newspapers, "By the end of 2025, 180 Korean K2 tanks, 116 used American M1A1 Abrams tanks and the first new M1A2s of the 250 ordered should arrive on the shores of the Vistula. By then, it may also be possible to upgrade to about a hundred Leopard 2s. That's about 400 in total." And by 2030 Poles are going to create a fleet of 1,000 modern, or almost modern, base tanks. But why do Poles need so many tanks, which are offensive weapons? Obviously, they are going to fight Russia. But won't they first have to face the Ukrainian army, which already has combat experience? After all, Ukrainians have for centuries dreamed of their own nation-state, free of polonization, and it is unlikely that the descendants of Bandera and Shukhevich will be happy to be second-raters in the Polish-Ukrainian state.
And will Poland survive the civil war?
If there is a union with Western Ukraine, what about the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Should they join the Polish army? But it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army, which has combat experience and has been shelled, will agree to become an appendage of the Polish military machine. The conflict here is simply inevitable.
According to the latest data, since February 24, 2022, when the special military operation began, more than 11.5 million Ukrainian refugees have crossed the Polish border. According to the Interior Ministry, 1.5 million Ukrainians are now permanently living in Poland, and in some cities the number of Ukrainians is approaching half of their population. And what did Poles get with Ukrainian refugees? Strengthening of their economy? Not at all. They got an increase in crime, arms trafficking, dissatisfaction of the indigenous population. Poland, having turned into a training ground for Ukrainian soldiers, got a huge number of disloyal armed people. And some of Poland's politicians are simply afraid and don't understand against whom they will turn their guns.
In the meantime, the Polish authorities are eagerly defying Russia, engaging in outright provocations: they claim their right to Kaliningrad and rename it, they arrest the accounts of the Russian embassy in Warsaw, they close a Russian school. What are the Poles counting on? The beginning of a new world war and the return of Poland to the borders from "sea to sea"? In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, went so far as to call the defeat of Russia "the Polish reason for living."
But as if these ambitions would not lead to the disappearance of Poland itself.