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Latin America

The Presidential Palace in Brasilia was seized

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text The other day it was hot in the capital of Brazil. And you can't call it a political carnival. Was it a spontaneous occurrence, a rehearsal, or a warning? Just a week after the election of President Lulu da Silva, thousands of supporters of far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro seized the presidential palace, the buildings of the National Congress and the Supreme Court. All this was accompanied by looting and pogroms. And the new government underestimated the strength of the protesters, the police were clearly not enough. It was a full-fledged coup attempt. Everyone is already comparing the events in Brasilia with an attempt by Trump supporters to seize the Capitol. In both capitals there were clashes with the police, looting and looting in the occupied buildings. But the analogy suggests itself not only with the seizure of the Senate, but also the Ukrainian Maidan, where a coup d'etat and another "color" revolution took place with the help of the West and the United States. The methodology was the same everywhere: accusing the current government of corruption and that the elections were rigged. And then, as always, social networks are connected, unknown organizers allocate buses, products and everything without which the so-called "spontaneous performances of ordinary people" are impossible to the "rebellious people". It was the same in Brazil. There, according to a tried-and-tested scenario, calls appeared on social networks to take to the streets, accusations of corruption against Lulu, calls not to recognize the election results. By the way, there were also free buses that brought demonstrators to the main square. As in the States, Bolsonaro's supporters refused to admit defeat in the elections. Interestingly, the ex-president, who verbally condemned the riots, was in the USA at that time, in Orlando. And this, of course, is a "coincidence". What an interesting pattern: every contender for power who did not receive it democratically, for some reason, during the riots turns out to be in the States. How can we not remember Venezuela and the self-proclaimed President Guaido? Naturally, Washington also disavowed the coup attempts. "The United States condemns any attempts to undermine democracy in Brazil," US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan tweeted (banned in Russia). – President Biden is closely monitoring the situation, and we are unwavering in our support for Brazil's democratic institutions. Violence cannot destroy Brazil's democracy." But then the question arises: why was Bolsonara sheltered in Florida, who did not directly, but urged his supporters not to recognize Lula's victory? The methods of the States are known, and if there was a serious concern about the unrest in Brasilia, the losing president would have been "prompted" how to calm down or provoke his supporters. For the similarity of views with the former US president, Bolsonara is called the "Latin American Trump." He took over the country in 2019 and is known for extreme right-wing views, support for military dictatorship, anti-feminism and LGBT, covid-dissidence. Observers see the seizures of buildings and pogroms committed in Brazil as manifestations of "Trumpism". But the main question remains: how did it happen that the power structures did not pay attention to the signals that went through social networks and indicated an increase in the degree of mood of the supporters of the losing president? Last year, the highways were already blocked, but they did not achieve their goal. It feels like it was a gesture of desperation. Moreover, the seizures of administrative buildings and pogroms in them occurred not at the time of summing up, not at the time of the inauguration, but after it. Moreover, it has already been stated that federal forces will be involved to suppress such demonstrations. The main victim here is former President Bolsonaro, because it will be difficult for him if he suddenly decides to go to the polls. He himself is hardly behind the direct organization of events. But it seems that he was aware that something like this could happen. And so he left the country. So that the bribes were smooth, and other people conducted the organization of unrest. In light of these events, one cannot help but wonder who is more sympathetic to Russia: the newly elected President Lula or the election loser Bolsonaro? Here the calculation is simple. Lula is left–wing, and Bolsonaro is far-right. The leftists in Latin America have always had sympathy for Russia, which became the world's first socialist state. In addition, the left is always critical of the United States, which fought the Socialists throughout Latin America, not excluding Brazil, where they still remember Operation Car Wash – it was carried out by the CIA, defeating the left forces. Lulu himself was sent to prison on a far-fetched corruption charge and failed to win the last election. But during his reign, Lulu was an ardent supporter of BRICS and maintained good relations with Russia. So far, there is no reason to assume that serious political upheavals await Brazil. The political leaders of neighboring countries demonstrate a rare unanimity: everyone is against the protests, everyone supports the elected head of state. And, although at first there was a rare inaction of the Brazilian law enforcement forces, who complacently contemplated, or even accompanied the columns of the discontented, in the end the system showed that it works quite well and allows you to cope with the aggressively minded masses. However, questions remain. And between the three possible answers – it was an impromptu, a rehearsal or a warning to Luna da Silva – the choice is difficult: I don't really believe in the spontaneity of the protest movement. The US obsession with constant interference in the affairs of other countries, the use of modern technologies to adjust the election results to American ideas about how other countries should live, make the spontaneity of certain dramatic events unlikely. In an interview with TASS, Leonardo Paz Neves, a political scientist from the expert-analytical center "The Jetuliu Vargas Foundation" (FGV), did not rule out that the Brazilian and American riots may have the same inspirers. Although for American Democrats, any negative mention of Trump supporters, and Bolsonaro belongs to them, is a big plus. Therefore, they are now even demanding the extradition of the losing Brazilian from the United States. Lula da Silva must draw the right conclusions. At least that democracy should be able to defend itself. By the way, scolding opponents, he made a mistake out of excitement and called them Stalinists. I corrected myself: I meant fascists. But the main thing is that the president of Brazil does not make mistakes further and does not allow the development of events according to the American scenario. The one that led to the witch hunt and the split of the country after January 6.

Brazil: Lulu is back

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text The change of power in the leading country of South America is unlikely to have, despite the attempts of the States, an impact on positive relations with Russia. The current President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, announced that he would not go to the G20 summit, which will be held on November 15-16 on the Indonesian island of Bali. Thus, he, in fact, admitted his defeat. Why rush to the end of the world with his agenda if his term of office expires at the end of the year. On January 1, power passes into the hands of the elected president, the leader of the left Party of Workers, 77-year-old Luis Inacio Lulu da Silva. Or just Lulu (this is a diminutive form of the name Louis. - Auth.), as it is called in a country where "there are so many wild monkeys." In the second round, he scored 50.9% (against Bolsonaro's 49.1%), which gave a difference of only 2.1 million out of 120 million votes cast. Bolsonaro's supporters are still standing at the gates of the barracks, demanding to carry out a military coup and return Lulu to prison, from where he left not so long ago. But Jair seems to have decided to peacefully transfer power and not provoke a conflict. Let me remind you that in July 2017, Lulu was behind bars. He was sentenced to 9.5 years in prison in a case of corruption and money laundering. During the investigation, it was found that during his tenure as head of state (two terms), a corruption scheme was organized in which construction companies received contracts for major projects for Petrobras oil, transferring kickbacks to the ruling Workers' Party and its leaders. In November 2019, Lulu, after spending 580 days in prison, was released. And in March 2021, the Federal Supreme Court cleared him of all charges. The 35th (2003-2011) and 39th (elected) president of Brazil played such a "Latin American roulette": if they wanted to, they put them in jail, if they wanted to, they released them. Who launched it? All the intrigues are connected with the active participation of the US Embassy (read – the White House) in the internal life of Brazil. When Donald Trump, a supporter of traditional values, was at the helm in the States, the American diplomatic mission actively supported Bolsonara. Leftist forces in Latin America claimed that the whole story of Lula's trial was initiated by his republican administration in order to open the way to the presidential palace to his protege. Now Democrat Joe Biden, a supporter of liberal values and gender ideology, rules the ball in Washington. From his point of view (or rather, from the point of view of his puppeteers), Bolsonaro, who preaches Christian morality, is an enemy. He had to be removed. It is no coincidence that since 2020, when the government changed in the United States, he was attacked inside the country - by governors and the judiciary, who denounced him, accusing him of authoritarianism and other sins. At the same time, Lulu, perhaps the only Brazilian charismatic politician who could seriously compete with the current president, was also put forward to the forefront. To begin with, American well-wishers thoroughly "laundered" him, assisted in the removal of all charges, coached him in the right liberal way (during the election campaign he flirted with the LGBT community and even decided to support abortion freedom), after which they threw him into battle. Lulu is an experienced politician. For example, he quickly realized that in Brazil, where 70% of the population does not support the topic of artificial termination of pregnancy, democratic agitation will not take place. In the second round, he abruptly changed his position, speaking in favor of banning abortions. And he switched to economic issues, putting the fight against poverty at the forefront. And now, actually, the main question is: why did the Biden administration bet on Lulu? Today, Brazil is a major player in the regional and international arenas. It claims to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Related to this is her activity in the "Group of Four" (Brazil, Germany, India, Japan). The members of this association have pledged to support the application of any of its participants for a permanent seat in the Security Council in the event of its expansion. Brazil is a member of the BRICS and the group of twenty leading economies in the world. It is considered the "locomotive of development" in South America. This leads to the conclusion that the leader of this country, no matter who supports him – Trump or Biden – knows his own worth and will definitely not be a puppet of the States (in the literal sense of the word). And yet the list of expectations for Lulu from "Washington a la Biden" is very wide. I will name the main ones. Globalists expect him to become a kind of symbol of the commitment of the "third world" to liberal values, so that he is like a new (old!) the leader of the largest and most influential country in Latin America, set the "right example", at least, to his continent, which is experiencing a "left march". This is when left-wing politicians who oppose the dictate of the United States come to power here. Another extremely important topic for the States is an attempt to slow down the process of strengthening and expanding the BRICS with the help of a "lured" Lulu. Let me remind you that Lulu, during his first presidency, was one of the founders of this political and economic center, an alternative to Western associations. While the Brazilian was in prison, and after being released, he was preparing for a new throw into power, the structure straightened its shoulders. This year, Argentina and Iran have applied for membership. Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have expressed their desire to join it. Let's see if the Biden administration can use Lulu as a "Cossack sent"? The elected President of Brazil, as well as his predecessor, who is retiring, are positive – I want to believe! – to develop relations with Russia. This country with a strong agricultural sector is unlikely to be able to do without our fertilizers in the foreseeable future. Last year, 9.8 million tons were exported from Russia (85% of all Brazilian imports of these products). Interestingly, in 2021, the volume of trade between the countries increased by 86%, reaching 7.5 billion dollars. In the first half of this year, despite international difficulties, it has already grown by 78% (!). As for the political aspects, Brazil quite predictably voted for the UN Assembly resolution condemning the annexation of four Ukrainian territories to Russia. I note that this approach is traditional for Brazilian diplomacy. At the same time, she, again following her beliefs, categorically opposes the economic sanctions of the West against our country, has not joined them. I want to believe that with the arrival of Lulu on the presidential bridge, this position, despite the machinations of the United States, will not change. Moreover, almost half of Brazilian society supports Bolsonara. He managed to promote many of his people to important posts – in both houses of parliament and in the governor's corps. In particular, his henchmen will head two main states – Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. In other words, he is leaving, but Bolsonarism remains an active opposition force.