Vladimir Trefilov / RIA Novosti
Doctor of Military Sciences, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences gave an interview to GEOFOR.
— Konstantin Valentinovich, our President called the collapse of the USSR the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. 32 years have passed. The events taking place in the post-Soviet space eloquently confirm the words of the Russian leader. Let us talk about the risks and threats that take place along the perimeter of our borders. The West. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have agreed on a February 2025 deadline for withdrawal from the BRELL power ring that connects them to Russia and Belarus. Will this lead to an increased military threat from the Baltic states?
— No. Energy is not linked to specific military threats. Withdrawal from the power ring that was created by the Soviet Union will hit first of all the countries that left it and will force them to find ways (they have probably already found them, since they are leaving) to replace the Russian energy that was in the Soviet ring and that they have been using all this time. Finding other sources of energy is up to them. In terms of security, it will not affect it in any way.
— Does the deployment of military forces by Poland to the borders of Belarus pose a potential threat? After all, there is an assumption that Poland is going to make an attempt to occupy the western lands of Ukraine?
— For the Western world, Ukraine is a proxy force for waging war against Russia, it is anti-Russia. However, Ukraine has exhausted itself. It is clear to everyone that further conflict in Ukraine does not lead to success. It has no potential for offensive actions and generally for waging war, its potential has been exhausted almost completely. Under these conditions, it is necessary to admit defeat, which would be a catastrophe for the West, or to draw new countries into the war. Poland was chosen as such a new country. The Polish leadership, driven by revanchist ideas of building the Great Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which ceased to exist several centuries ago, promotes these desires of the West. And Poland could be drawn into a war with Russia by occupying the western regions of Ukraine. This could lead to the possibility of Polish troops clashing with Ukrainian forces. In this case, Ukraine will start fighting on two fronts: against Poland and against Russia. Under these conditions, it is possible that Ukrainian military forces will stop resisting on the Russian-Ukrainian front, and joint efforts of Russia and Ukraine will fall on Poland, which, in turn, could lead, with a high degree of probability, to a clash between Russia and NATO.
— Moldova is going to withdraw from the agreement on armed forces and border troops concluded in the CIS format and join the EU, despite the lack of control over the territory of unrecognized Transnistria. What is behind this?
— For the West, Moldova is the most important springboard for waging war against Russia. Moldova will be used to make Ukraine-2, i.e. also anti-Russia, in order to successfully throw forces against Russia. Now it becomes clear that they can’t deal with Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to make the very additional state, which, besides Poland, will be ready to fight against Russia, because Romania is behind Moldova. Under these conditions, Transnistria is only a small unrecognized state, so its security plays a secondary role, and Moldova can agree to give up claims to this territory in order to join the EU and then NATO, and thus ensure the deployment of appropriate groups on its territory. And when favorable conditions are created, Moldova, Poland and what remains of Ukraine can start military actions against Russia. This is the West’s plan. How it will be realized is a big question. I am not sure that they will succeed.
— Southern direction. On the one hand, the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia and the NKR is still continuing. There is a Russian base in Gyumri on Armenian territory and Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. On the other hand, Turkey and Azerbaijan are much more interested in opening the Zangezur corridor, which passes through the territory of the Syunik Province of Armenia and which separates Turkey from the Turkic world of Russia and the post-Soviet space. On the third hand, we see Iran’s excitement about what is happening in Transcaucasia. After all, with the opening of the Zangezur corridor and Turkey’s penetration into it, Israel will immediately create a military threat to Iran in this territory.
But there is a fourth aspect. Recently, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Kazakhstan in order to consolidate previous agreements on the development of logistic routes across the Caspian Sea bypassing Russia. It is noteworthy that from the very beginning the visit was influenced by the British side, which is behind the project of «Turkic integration» and is interested in the development of relations between Baku, as a vassal of Turkey, and Astana. And this opens opportunities for Anglo-Saxons to lead to geopolitical turn not only of Kazakhstan, but also of the whole region towards the West. How to untangle this knot?
— The interests of big states have always clashed here — since the 18th and 19th centuries, it has been happening within the framework of the so-called «big game». It is still going on today. Britain, as always, is actively involved in this game, trying to restore the status of a great power, which it is no longer. And that is why it is building all kinds of intrigues. In addition, the U.S. is interested in this, which seeks to create additional areas of threats to Russia in order to achieve the overthrow of the current Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and replace him with its puppet. Therefore, they need to create tension for Russia, and the United States is actively working in this direction.
Turkey is also happily involved in this process, as it continues to implement its «Great Turan» project, which envisages the integration of all Turkic-speaking peoples of the region under Turkish auspices. The complex of these interests is in conflict with the interests of Russia and the objective interests of Armenia and Georgia, whose political elites today do not always respect the interests, first of all, of their own people, being guided more by their personal political preferences. Therefore, the situation in this region is quite complicated for Russia, and it has to maneuver. At present, Russia acts in this direction exclusively by diplomatic and partly economic methods. But given that Armenia is a member of the CSTO and has quite serious forces oriented towards preserving Russian-Armenian relations as the basis of Armenia’s foreign policy, I think that Armenia will be fine. All the problems and contradictions that were formed by the efforts of the current administration of Armenia will be eliminated, and Russian-Armenian relations will remain at the level they were before — Armenia will remain a reliable partner of Russia within the CSTO. As for Turkey, it is largely dependent on Russia in terms of economy and military security, as Russia has sold S-400 systems to Turkey, which are one of the most important components of Turkey’s air defense infrastructure. Under these circumstances, of course, Turkey will seek to act more softly.
Iran is a reliable ally in this area. It will certainly, on its part, assist in stabilizing the situation in this region, and a set of actions, taking into account the above, gives reason to expect that we will be able, with a very serious, subtle diplomatic game, including economic measures, to prevent the plans to create a new point of confrontation between Russia and the West in the southern strategic direction from being implemented. In addition, Russia is working in the Afghan direction. There, our relations with the current Afghan leadership are developing, although the Americans are diligently pushing them to develop the conflict in the direction of the Central Asian former Soviet republics. In general, there is a fierce confrontation in this area — diplomatic, economic, intelligence and special operations forces. But so far the West has had no success in this area.
— The USSR has collapsed. What conclusions should we draw from this to prevent the Russian state from disintegrating again?
— We must understand a simple thing: we must love our own state, not another, not a foreign one. This is the most important thing. Secondly, we must realize that other countries do not need Russian and other indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation. And if we lose our country, all our peoples will be physically destroyed — both those who love foreign countries, foreign culture, and those who fight for their country. Therefore, those who love foreign countries, their culture and spirituality so much, and take an example from them, considering their country weak, should well understand that these very «best» countries will destroy them, as they are destroying Ukrainians now, as they destroyed Indians, Africans and many others before. It should also be understood that without clear politicization, analysis of the political situation, patriotic position the country cannot be saved — it will be torn apart.
The «fifth column» is a very serious force. These are not those who walk around with placards, i.e. the ’white ribbons’. The «fifth column» is those who hold high positions, positions in the entire hierarchy of the management system, especially in business, who are oriented towards the West. And they are ready to sell their country and destroy their compatriots for the sake of their profit, for the sake of their well-being in the West. We should clearly analyze their actions and understand that they are masquerading as patriots, but they are already doing subversive work against Russia. This force cannot be defeated without an active struggle for the country, without not giving in to beautiful baits like foreign clothes and gum, for the sake of which the Soviet Union was sold and huge sacrifices were made.
Now, in the very near future, the «fifth column» will make attempts to overthrow the current president and replace him with a puppet protégé, who will then ruin our country and destroy it piece by piece. Therefore, the only force that will ensure the integrity of the country and prevent foreign intervention is Russia — with all the problems and shortcomings that are certainly existing. So the principle is simple: consolidation around the Russian army, around real patriots of the country. They exist both in the government and among the patriotic opposition. They have long supported the healthy part of the Russian elite. The army must be supported because if there is no army, there will be no nuclear shield, and we will be treated like Yugoslavia.
The West is our fiercest, most terrible enemy. And now it is at the stage of disintegration. This is evident from the situation in the United States and Europe. If we survive a few years, we will witness catastrophic events in Western civilization. And then we will be proud of our country. All Westerners will start rushing to our territory, and they should not be allowed here. They have nothing to do here.