- Vladislav Vladislavovich, please give an assessment of what is happening around Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Why did Iran, which has always stated that it would perceive encroachments on Armenia’s territorial integrity as blows to its sovereignty, nevertheless recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan?
- The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia will develop as follows. NK no longer exists. Armenia first lost it in the war for NK, or rather did not participate in it, and the NK army was defeated. With Russian mediation, agreements were concluded and peacekeepers were introduced to avoid genocide, but in the end Armenia itself has done nothing to somehow defuse the situation over the past two years, to interact with Azerbaijan, and all this has led to the current situation. In the course of the conflict, Karabakh as an autonomy was liquidated, it no longer exists. Only the historical name remains.
Azerbaijan has established full control over all these territories. The rest is Azerbaijani history. I do not think that there will be genocide, because it is extremely disadvantageous for Azerbaijan to present itself as a country that carries out ethnic cleansing. But it is a fact that the exodus of Armenian population will begin, most of the youth will leave, and at best the old people will remain.
The military-police operation against Karabakh is over. Armenia has fully recognized its status as part of Azerbaijan. Now both de facto and de jure Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, so Iran dryly and calmly said that it also recognizes this, although it may not like this situation.
- Serbia’s position is ambiguous: on the one hand we see strong support of the Serbian people for Russia, and on the other hand we see influential globalist forces in Serbia’s leadership that seek to tear it away from Russia. In your opinion, which path will Serbia eventually follow?
- The current Serbia, despite the fact that the population has great sympathy for Russia, will be like an alcoholic pretending not to drink, but slowly drifting towards Europe. The trouble with Serbia is that, for all its sympathy for Russia, it does not have a millimeter of border with at least neutral waters. It is surrounded on all sides by NATO and EU countries. Accordingly, in this case it is impossible to try to maintain some kind of absolute loyalty to Russia.
It is unlikely that Serbia will directly participate in any actions against Russia. But, one way or another, a semi-European government will be established in Serbia sooner or later, and it will turn towards Europe. But there will be no aggressive anti-Russian opposition there.
Counting on some kind of full Serbian support is also foolish. Again these are dramatic consequences of a lost war. Because if you lose a war, they start dictating terms to you and for more than one generation to come. The war was lost in 1999, 24 years have passed, but the pressure and coercion on Serbia continues.
- Analysts predict the collapse of America and the transfer of world hegemony to China. But the dollar remains in first place among the world’s currencies. There are more than 600 US military bases in the world. NATO accepts more and more new states into the alliance; America manages to create controlled chaos in certain regions. Is everything so clear-cut, and which countries do you see as leaders in the next 50 years?
- I don’t see any signs yet that the US is going to disintegrate. The US is experiencing not the first and not the last crisis in its history. The crisis is systemic, very severe. But the US has enough strength and resources to overcome it. Therefore, in 50–70 years at least two countries will remain leaders — the USA and China. Of course, India will develop and become a leader. Someone will emerge from other countries that are now beyond the threshold. It could be Indonesia. There are a lot of countries that are claiming it now.
Russian future depends on how it turns out with the special military operation. If Russia wins this war and is able to maintain itself in its current status as a global, independent power, much less a victorious power, it will be the third or second country in the world.
- How do you think events will unfold on the special military operation fronts in the coming fall and winter? Will the Americans continue to supply Ukraine with arms?
- Undoubtedly, the supply will continue. The Americans have nowhere to retreat. Especially not the Biden administration. On the other hand, the idea of quickly fragmenting Russia has collapsed. And it is quite clear that the summer offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces has failed. This strategy was developed in December-January last year, and now they are moving to the next strategy — a war of attrition. Therefore, Ukraine will continue to be squeezed like a doormat. However, it is only mud that is squeezed out of a doormat, while blood is squeezed out of Ukraine. How long it will be able to pay this war tax depends on how long it will be held ideologically. I think for a long time. They are under the complete mental control of Washington and their Nazi top brass. The war will continue, but I hope that the Ukrainian offensive is now running out of steam, and if Russia shows successes on the front, the situation in Ukraine will start to degenerate quite clearly.
- The U.S. has supplied Kiev with long-range missiles. How serious is this new threat for Russia, its military and civilians?
- Undoubtedly, it is a significant threat. But we assess it appropriately. These missiles are not in themselves some kind of «wunderwaffe». Their parameters are as close as possible to what has already been delivered, to the same Storm Shadow and SCALP. They are things of the same sort, of the same approximate range. But they have greater speed, and most importantly, they are land deployed. If SCALP and Storm Shadow can be launched only from an air carrier, and they have very few of them (5–6 airplanes are about 12 missiles), the same ATACMS can be launched from HIMARS. They are harder to detect, they move much faster, they have more opportunities to get as close to borders as possible. In this case, the density of the raid can be much higher. There will no longer be 10 missiles, but 20. This is a very serious threat that requires to do a lot of work to build up air defense.
- Are the events taking place today in Africa and special military operation in Europe interrelated processes?
- No. They are developing in parallel. The events in Africa follow completely different scenarios, different laws — that is one thing. The war in Ukraine is quite another. Of course, they influence each other. Russia is more immersed in Ukraine right now, and it doesn’t have as much time for Africa as it would like.
- On September 9, NATO’s “North Coast” exercises began, and in 2024, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states will host the alliance’s largest exercises since the Cold War, with more than 41,000 military personnel taking part. At the same time, significant Western forces are already concentrated on the borders of Russia and Belarus. Is this escalation a publicity stunt or is the West really teetering on the brink of war with Russia?
- These are exercises that take place every year, they are not sudden, they are planned. Another thing is that these exercises are given a completely different meaning than they were 10 years ago. Now they are filled with meaning and preparation for the coming conflict, and they will be held in the most rigid scenario, more immersed in the current situation. But there is no need to overestimate them as well, such exercises take place every year.
- What is behind the transfer of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus?
- The transfer of tactical nuclear weapons is strengthening the Belarusian flank (direction) with weapons, which certainly shows what kind of war will be in case of any military conflict with NATO on this territory.
The interview was conducted by Evgeny Davutov.