Karine Gevorgyan, a well-known Russian political scientist and orientalist, discussed with GEOFOR correspondent who is who around Russia: friends, foes, neighbors …
The beginning of this conversation — “here”
- Iran and Iraq have agreed to build the first railroad. The parties claim that this project is, among other things, a religious unifying factor. Is this true, or does the geopolitical background outweigh the religious component?
- I would not separate this. Indeed, people will be able to visit the main Shiite shrine, Kerbela (the mausoleum of the martyr Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad). There is a saying in Persian: «Ham ziyarat ham tejarat» — that is both pilgrimage and trade. But this is in jest, they are people with a great sense of humor and self-irony. If a person is a merchant, he can pray and fulfill an important function for society. One does not exclude the other for ordinary people. But not for the clergyman.
Iran’s access to the Mediterranean will also be secured. It is looking for access to both the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. That is why Armenia and Georgia are so important for Iran. Iran is politically very active in this direction. If earlier Georgia did not want to open the railroad, now Abkhazia is preventing it. The railroad goes through Abkhazia, Georgia and Armenia. They want complete diversification of land routes, because the way from the Olya terminal in the port of Astrakhan to Iran is expensive. The Chinese are investing in Iran’s infrastructure (they promised to invest half a trillion over 20 years). Iran creates this infrastructure, it becomes a transit territory. If you look at the map, Iran has an ideal geostrategic position: it enters the heart of Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Because of this, it has managed to preserve its sovereignty despite sanctions and anti-American rhetoric. This is very telling. It was alone — and it stood firm. That is what it means when you have the will and mobilization.
The country is diverse. Of course, there are ongoing attempts to blow it up from within. In this sense, Iran is very concerned about the pan-Turkist propaganda that is being carried out among the Turkic peoples of the country, so far, en masse, very loyal to the central government and leadership. Their representatives are present in the big leagues: it is the supreme ruler of Iran — Ayatollah Khamenei — an ethnic Azerbaijani. And if Ilham Aliyev said that they will come and liberate the Azerbaijanis of Iran, how he will liberate Ayatollah Khomeini from himself, I do not really understand.
This confrontation is not perceived in Moscow. I was on Artem Sheinin’s program Vremya Pokazhet and there was Andrei Frantsevich Klintsevich, whose military competence I highly appreciate. It turns out that he participated in the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict and creation of communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But he was not aware that there is a fundamental conflict between post-Soviet Azerbaijan and Iran. He did not know that in Azerbaijan itself people who studied in Iranian universities, who are not religious, are repressed and imprisoned. He did not know that during 30 years of Erdogan’s pan-Turkism there has been a rapid Sunitization of post-Soviet Azerbaijan. The Shiites there are like underground, they are imprisoned and constantly under the threat of reprisals.
- There is alarming news from Syria: fighting has intensified in the north of Latakia, the US-led coalition has launched airstrikes in Homs Governorate, the Druze have become worried, and clashes between Arabs and Kurds have begun. Why is it now that the Syrian front has intensified?
- I have the impression, given what is happening in the waters of the Black Sea — the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford off the coast of Antalya, events in Transcaucasia, armored vehicles and manpower near the borders of Armenia — that problems are being created for Russia on the entire perimeter and everywhere the country is present in one way or another. The problem for our adversaries is the need to synchronize these actions. This is difficult, if not impossible, but one should not count on them not succeeding. So there is some unevenness of response on Russian part. I warned that the Syrian leadership is closely monitoring the situation in Transcaucasia. But I have not been able to break through that wall with my forehead. My interlocutors consider all this separately, «where is Transcaucasia and where is Syria, what is the connection?» And I have no energy to explain what connection there is. There are Assyrians and Armenians living in Syria, who enjoy great sympathy of the local population. The thing is that there is a part of Northern Syria, which it retained after France lost its mandate (this was explained to me by Syrians, not Armenians).
Turkey wanted to get this region, but Armenians fought in all international organizations, demanding to leave them in Syria («they genocided us»), so Syria got this region, and it is very important. There are warring units there formed from Christians (Assyrians, Armenians). They are also watching what is happening in Armenia, because some of the families have fled to Armenia. In Iran they are watching it very closely, but here it’s not even about Iranian Armenians, who don’t understand the actions of Nikol Pashinyan. They are already just watching and shrugging their shoulders. But Iran itself is also very concerned about the situation.
This situation in Transcaucasia and in the Black Sea is being watched very closely from New Delhi. It is clear that Narendra Modi and Indian politicians have their own problems and headaches. Nevertheless, everyone is looking out to see how Russia will act, including Riyadh — Saudi Arabia. These capitals are in constant consultation. If we keep strong positions — that’s it, they are with us, and we form a trade zone where there are no toxic elements. After all, Turkey is trying to enter the North-South project, being an element toxic as a NATO member, because it can cut it if anything («you will behave badly»). It can always be an element of blackmail.
In the Arabian Peninsula, in the UAE, there are regular broadcasts about how the Ottoman Empire genocided the Bedouins. They remember Ottoman rule with a shudder. Moreover, Erdogan’s attempts to manifest Turkey and himself as the center of the Islamic world offend them. Islam came out of the Arabian Peninsula, the main shrine is there in Saudi Arabia. They are the custodians of these shrines. They don’t want to hand over that honorable role to Erdogan.
- Iran is becoming an increasingly active player in the region. Iran now wants to place rocket launchers in the Golan Heights that can cover the entire territory of Israel. It is also one of the main obstacles to Turkey’s advancement in the Caucasus. Tehran’s ties with Moscow have noticeably strengthened. To what extent will they develop, and how do you assess the growing interaction between Tehran and Beijing? After joining BRICS, can Iran reconsider at least some of its radical approaches in foreign policy? Who is its primary focus today?
- In 1995, Mr. Safari, Iran’s ambassador to Moscow, a classic diplomat, whispered to me on the sidelines with an incredible feeling: «I’m tired of telling the Russians about their strategic interests». The Iranians have been telling Russia about this for a long time.
Now the rapprochement with Iran is due to the fact that it is more important to Russia than vice versa in the operational environment. Of course, it needs Russia, too. But we are friends with Turkey, we develop trade relations, and we give them money. We create everything there with our own money. And Iran, be kind, pay for everything. We won’t forget about Griboyedov, we won’t mention Karlov. We develop military-technical cooperation with Iran, but otherwise there is little mutual trust.
Iranians do not understand Russia. They believe that part of the Russian managerial elite is corrupt. Considering that during the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, the Americans managed to force their decision, and Russia did not deliver S-300 systems to the Iranians despite its obligations and even payment of the first tranche, they remember this. They have a very long memory in general, including the youth. This is how their mentality is organized. They expect us to do anything. This does not make Russia a reliable partner in their eyes. We convince Iranians that we are standing in the Transcaucasus and no one will squeeze us out, but they look from the outside and see that it can happen at the click of a button, and in this regard they tense up.
Iran does not understand why Turkey is given such bonuses one after another, as if from a cornucopia: after all, they strike wherever they can — they cooperate with Ukraine, they want to take Crimea away from Russia, they want to launch the Turan project.
As for Tehran’s cooperation with Beijing, it is pragmatic on both sides. They are very different civilizations, and I do not see cultural rapprochement, deep inter-civilizational interaction. Plus the phases of Westernization are different. And since the West dominated, certain Western characteristics have somehow naturally ceased to be borrowed, they have been mastered. Maybe they are even universal human traits, just in a Westernized package.
Iranians, contrary to what is said about them, are quite modern people. The Chinese are quite difficult to turn around, but nevertheless, my conversations with Chinese intellectuals suggest that Americanization among the non-poor Chinese class is off the charts. Iranians are more critical of this. There is a considerable Iranian exile in the world, but their property in the country is not confiscated and they are not banned from entering the country. I was struck by how many Iranians from America travel to Iran. Iranians are quite benevolent people, and it is revealed in an unobtrusive way, they are very sensitive. Even their enemies have noted this. And the vendors do not pester the way they do in Egypt or Turkey.
Iran is a rising power. To many people this seemed unrealistic; now it is a fact. Iran is among the ten most technologically advanced countries in the world. This is very important. Nanotechnology and hypersonics — Iran has now begun to proliferate. It is slowly but surely on its way to the big leagues, and I don’t rule out that someday Iran will sit as an equal negotiating partner in the new Security Council of the new UN. Right now it is venturing into Venezuela, Latin America. Iranian warships are reaching it, they passed the Panama Canal, and the Americans did not dare to hit them with missiles, and they took such a beautiful walk, and not once. Iranians are building a subway in Venezuela, in Iran itself the first subway appeared in the late 90s. Iran is a very rapidly developing power, which is lucky not only with its geostrategic position, but also with its specific landscape, making it quite difficult to conquer, and most importantly, with its people. In many ways this country is a harsh one, but this harshness mobilizes it and has created such a character among Iranians.
The deployment of Iranian missiles on the Golan Heights is blackmail, a response to the fact that Azerbaijan has actually hosted an Israeli base in the Zangilan region. It is a hint: get out of Azerbaijan and we will not create a problem for you in this area, although we can. They are all the time patiently trying to explain to their counterparts or adversaries «what will happen if…», so when in Israel they shout «Iran is our enemy», Iranians sigh heavily, because they cannot explain to these naive people that Iran is interested in the existence of the Jewish state.
One of the latest reports: a group of Israeli orthodox wanted to emigrate to Iran, but they were not allowed to. Iranians are very religiously tolerant. There are 50 active synagogues there, medical centers and cheders (schools) are paid for by the Iranian state. The Jewish community supports the state. But this is unknown to people who are far from knowing Iran and only hear what the Americans and Russian media say. There is not and never has been anti-Semitism in Iran. They have no frustrations about Jews being smarter. They have the same sympathy for Jews as for all other peoples. They have no arrogance, and they don’t encounter xenophobic people at home because they are considered unmanly. If you hold yourself with dignity, you respect the dignity of others. Iran also benefits greatly from the existence of a Jewish state in an Arab environment. Therefore, demolishing Israel is not favorable to it. Yes, Iran doesn’t like the name — that’s true. It goes back to theological principles. Iran has always been in favor of Judea, and within the Jewish people, Israel and Judea have fought several times in a terribly tooth-and-nail way. There were two groups there that are irreconcilable: some followers of the prophet Moses, others of Aaron’s brother. Jerusalem cannot be the capital of Israel. It is the capital of Judea, the Iranians say, and no one understands them. Since the Scripture with which we started the conversation, no one reads.
To be continued.