Vladimir Rogov: "For Ukraine, the ceasefire is an opportunity to regroup and beg for more money"


Vladimir Rogov

- Vladimir Valeriyevich, now people are talking about a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine. What is your attitude to this kind of information and do you feel that there is a real possibility of some kind of negotiations on the frontlines of the special military operation?

- We should realize that our enemy goes to negotiations only when he is losing. Tirades about peace are heard from the other side, and this shows one thing — they understand perfectly well that they are cornered, that the situation is bad. To prevent defeat, they start talking about peace, about truce, about compromise, about universal human values, about the price of human life. And this is said by people who have been destroying their fellow citizens for 10 years, and were not concerned about people’s lives, especially about their well-being and preservation of peace. This is pure hypocrisy.

The words about the peace of Zelensky and his entourage indicate that everything is gone, and that everything is worse than we can imagine. It’s not only Zelensky, it happened under Poroshenko as well. It is enough to remember that the first peace was concluded after the Battle of Ilovaisk. The second peace — Minsk-2 — was concluded in February 2015 and was a consequence of the Battle of Debaltsevo and the defeat of the group of UAF fighters in Donbass.

Now we see: a number of circumstances have become extremely negative for the Zelensky regime. This is the failure of the so-called «counter-offensive» and a sharp reduction in aid from the West. Because of the corruption component, Western countries are afraid to pour large sums into Zelensky’s regime, because their elites realize that they will lose the elections. If we look at the general trend of a sort of united West — in fact, it is not united at all — it is clear that the topic of the conflict in the post-Ukrainian space, and especially support for Zelensky’s regime, is very toxic for Western elites for the simple reason that if this issue is heavily promoted, your rating is likely to fall, and fall significantly. Western propagandists realize this, as well, as they removed all blue and yellow flags from their editorials overnight, even though they had been there for a year and a half.

This did not happen by magic, but in accordance with clearly measured steps and decisions. So, if we are talking about peace initiatives or ceasefire, I don’t believe in it, because any ceasefire the enemy will use only for one purpose: to rearm, to negotiate with the West to get support for fighting, as well as budgetary support. Last year, the current regime in Ukraine already depended on Western loans for more than 60 percent of its budget. That is, if a family’s budget consists of 60 percent of bank loans, such a family will not last long, because this vortex pulls them into debt, solid loans and obligations. Zelensky and his gang of Nazis understand this very well, so when something goes wrong, he starts to talk about compromises, about truce through his proxies, to use any way to get support. Zelensky also clearly understands that Minsk-3 and Minsk-4 will not happen. Russia, maybe not as fast as we would like, is now on an upward trend — there is steady economic growth, unlike in Ukraine, where GDP has collapsed.

- The United States Congress has approved a temporary budget that does not include any money for aid to Ukraine. Is this somehow affecting the situation in the special military operation zone?

- Certainly, it is beginning to have an impact. The allocation of money by the United States is a carte blanche to force other Western players to continue the allocation of money to Ukraine. Why is the topic of the ceasefire so relevant for the enemy now? It seems that the U.S. sees and understands perfectly well: the level of support is decreasing day by day. The presidential election is coming up, and Biden will not win this election unless there is some beautiful picture for the overwhelming part of the population that everything is fine. Biden now needs a «successful case» to present to the electorate: here in Ukraine the matter is over, everything is going to a truce, mutual resentments are being put aside, and we are not spending billions of dollars on this anymore.

Talk of a ceasefire is primarily a game of the Democratic Party of the American government. They are intraparty games of the American political environment that translate into foreign policy games of coercion.

- You claim that Avdeevka is turning into a “Meat Grinder” and Zelensky does not want to accept reality. It is clear that Avdeevka will be taken by the Russian army. How will this affect the balance of forces in the special military operation zone?

- The role of Avdeevka is much more important than that of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) because this city has been strategically preparing for defense for 9 years. Colossal funds (many billions of grivnas) were invested in preparation for the defense of Avdeevka. There are fortified areas, underground cities, and many thousands of cubic meters of concrete. These are all reinforced concrete structures created for one purpose — to deter offensive, which sooner or later had to begin. The enemy has been waiting for it since 2014.

Avdeevka is a key point used for shelling Donetsk and Makeyevka — the largest agglomeration not only in the DPR, but in all of Novorossiya. The liberation of Avdeevka opens the way to the northwest and west of this settlement, and can provide us with the expected successes. Why did I say that Zelensky was grinding up UAF fighters there? Because we see how many units have been moved there from other parts of the front, and this tactic continues. We see how many resources and elite UAF fighters are being thrown into Avdeevka now, and we understand the purpose of all this.

Nevertheless, the Zelensky regime has drawn conclusions from the events that led to the loss of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), and it is one of the key transportation hubs at the intersection of several roads at once. Kiev understands perfectly well that Avdeevka will be lost. And given Russia’s successes and their defeats in such a direction as the industrial zone section, this all causes, albeit very restrained, but optimism about the timing of the liberation of this settlement, the grinding up of UAF fighters and the successful advance to new frontiers.

To be continued.