Manaure Quintero / Reuters
The meeting between the two presidents, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and Guyana’s Muhammad Irfaan Ali, was predictable. The demonstration of «strength» on the common border, backed by Guyana’s theatrical air maneuvers and patrolling of the coast by warships of the US Southern Command, the unquestioning statements of both presidents about their readiness to defend «their interests» did not excite the UN, Latin America, or the interested US or China too. One problem is that the world community is either indifferent to the conflict or opposed to Venezuela’s territorial claims.
The 15 members of the UN Security Council, discussing in a «calm manner» the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, advocated respect for international law, including the UN Charter’s requirement for all countries to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any other nation, and to recognize the decisions of the International Court of Justice and its role as arbitrator.
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Chile and Ecuador issued a joint declaration calling for «both sides to negotiate in search of a peaceful solution». The Caribbean Community (CARICOM), despite Venezuelan fuel subsidies, unanimously supported Guyana.
The US, stuck in Ukraine and the Middle East, is now not at all interested in fomenting armed conflict in its «underbelly», especially since the White House is both politically and financially invested in defeating Maduro in the planned 2024 presidential elections.
China has its «peak oil» interests in both Venezuela and Guyana. It supports Guyana because of its large stakes in oil projects and logging in the Essequibo region.
Finally, not the least role in resolving the conflict is played by Cuba, which, according to the Spanish agency EFE, believes that «Caracas should give up its claims». The Cuban government has been in contact with Venezuela and Guyana «for months» over the conflict over Essequibo. Diplomatic sources in Havana assured EFE that the island «led» efforts to organize a meeting between the presidents of the two countries, which finally took place on December 14 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Nicolas Maduro said before the meeting that «we will do everything possible to ensure that our Latin America and the Caribbean remains a zone of peace».
«All of this belongs to Guyana», Irfaan Ali said, showing off a thick leather bracelet on his right wrist with Guyana’s image on it. «Both sides are committed to ensuring that the region remains a zone of peace», he added.
The hours-long meeting between the two leaders took place at the main international airport on the island of St. Vincent in the eastern Caribbean. Representatives from the UN, CARICOM, CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) and Brazil observed the talks. Details of the talks were not disclosed. It is only reported that they were extremely tense. Nicolas Maduro has laid claim to Essequibo territory, while Guyanese leader Irfaan Ali is adamant that there is no scenario in which Caracas’ demands will be met. Basically a stalemate.
According to some reports, Venezuela has been pushing for direct bilateral talks that would finally resolve the issue, while Guyana has been demanding a UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) review of the matter. Experts believe that the ICJ in The Hague will rule in Guyana’s favor next year. In the meantime, it has issued a ruling warning Venezuela against any action aimed at changing the status quo of the situation. Venezuela, for its part, rejects the jurisdiction of the ICJ in this case.
At the end of the talks, Maduro and Ali got off with an 11-point joint statement in which they pledged «not to threaten or use force against each other under any circumstances» and promised to «refrain in word and deed from escalating any conflict or disagreement». Both sides pledged to resolve the dispute «in accordance with international law», but noted that there was disagreement in that Guyana considers the International Court of Justice to be the proper jurisdiction, while Venezuela does not recognize it as such in the matter. As a result, neither Venezuela nor Guyana has been able to agree on the appropriate global jurisdiction to resolve the territorial dispute over Essequibo,
In the event of an armed incident, the observers who sat at the negotiating table in St. Vincent would have to mediate.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali have agreed to meet again in Brazil in three months. During that time, a joint commission led by the foreign ministers of both countries will work on a peaceful solution to the conflict, which has lasted longer than a century.
«It was a fruitful day, in tense moments we were able to speak the truth. It was worth it to defend the truth about Venezuela», Maduro said, thanking Ali for his «frankness and willingness to engage in a substantive dialog».
«Guyana does not seek war, but Guyana reserves the right to work with all our partners to ensure the defense of our country. Guyana has every right […} to facilitate any investment, any partnership […] to grant any license and concessions in our sovereign space», Ali said.
Essequibo, a territory of 160,000 square kilometers, is universally recognized as part of Guyana, and has been claimed by all of Venezuela’s ruling regimes for 200 years. However, it has never gone beyond the usual bickering and appeals to international arbitrators. And the powerful northern neighbor turned a blind eye to this and other border disputes in South America, leaving the conflicting countries to solve these problems on their own.
The Geneva Agreement of 1966 provided for the demarcation of borders through direct negotiations between Venezuela and Guyana. This failed, and in 2018, UN Secretary General António Guterres decided to take the case to the International Court of Justice at Guyana’s request. Maduro is pushing for a return to what was agreed in Geneva to review the legal process from scratch in bilateral talks. Guyana is pushing for UN ICJ arbitration.
In 2015, ExxonMobil, one of the largest oil companies in the world and one of the largest corporations in the world in terms of market capitalization, first discovered large oil deposits off the coast of Essequibo. The consortium began producing black gold in December 2019, turning beggarly Guyana into the world’s fourth-largest offshore oil producer.
Tensions between the neighbors rose sharply after Venezuelans in a referendum in December supported a proposal to declare the Essequibo region a new Venezuelan state, «Guayana-Essequiba», and rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice, which is hearing the border dispute.
Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said he would allow Venezuelan state companies to explore for oil in Essequibo and suggested that foreign companies (China’s CNOOC too?) operating in the area should cease operations within three months.
«We are not going anywhere — our focus remains on efficient and responsible resource development in accordance with our agreement with the Government of Guyana», ExxonMobil said in response.
Virtually all experts and analysts tracking the development of the Venezuela-Guyanese border dispute agree that there will be almost 100 percent no escalation of the armed conflict, nor is it foreseen. According to The Washington Post, the referendum held in Venezuela was Maduro’s attempt to «gauge support for his government ahead of the 2024 presidential election» and not «a prelude to an invasion».
Even if Caracas is tempted by the fact that Guyana has muy poco soldiers and mucho oil, its army, no matter how strong by Latin American standards, cannot wage a victorious war in the impenetrable forests of Essequibo, where there are no roads and no satisfactory logistics are possible. Besides, the Venezuelans would have to face a regular U.S. army.
Venezuela also does not need a war because of the purely socio-economic problems into which the United States has plunged it with its sanctions. Their «cunning» relaxation in response to the Maduro government’s agreement to ensure «free and fair» elections is, of course, free cheese in a mousetrap. But the Venezuelan government is already predicting a 27% increase in its revenues from the state oil company PDVSA next year. It’s clear that an invasion of Essequibo would lead to broader sanctions from the West’s international coalition, which could trigger an economic catastrophe in Venezuela.
Nicolás Maduro has endured too many difficult moments over the past decade, from U.S. attempts to overthrow his government by armed force to the economic strangulation of the entire country. Now he faces the test of the 2024 presidential election, for which the current U.S. State Department has comprehensively prepared itself and prepared the Venezuelan opposition.
«There’s one thing South America does not need right now: trouble», Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said when asked about a possible invasion of the Guyanese territory of Essequibo. «If there’s one thing we need to grow and improve the lives of our people, it’s for us to calm down and work hard to improve the lives of the people, and not think about fighting», he said.
Maduro has no margin for error.