An analysis of the details of Iran’s massive missile strike on military targets in Israel on the night of April 14 allows us to strengthen the opinion that Tehran has done an excellent job in this round of confrontation with an existential adversary
No matter how much some domestic bloggers may have been upset — the attack, they say, «did not meet expectations» — on the military-strategic and propaganda-psychological chessboards of this simultaneous big game, it was Iran that achieved an unambiguous advantage.
This tactical success of Tehran, which is not quite obvious, will backfire and is already reverberating in Washington. Why?
Tehran did not choose diplomatic missions, hospitals or schools, or residential neighborhoods as targets of retaliation. As a consequence, there are no civilian losses.
One key reason is that the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), according to the New York Times, «communicated the attack in advance, publicly and privately». The press even flashed such a detail: allegedly «in advance» means that the signal was sent three days (!) before Iran launched 185 UAVs, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles at targets in Israel.
The drones, according to unconfirmed reports, flew leisurely, like a movie screen in slow motion, as if their flight assignment did not specify that the targets were to be hit. The Israeli military, apparently with good reason, reported that 99% of the flying munitions were shot down (other sources claim 83%), which in any case minimized the damage.
In the absence of the surprise factor, the Iron Dome tactical air defense system proved itself. Allies also made a significant contribution. Jordan struck some of the drones over its territory, citing the right of self-defense. U.S. Air Force fighter jets eliminated 70 drones. Two U.S. Navy warships destroyed four to six ballistic missiles. Another missile was intercepted on approach in Iraqi skies by a U.S. Patriot surface-to-air missile system.
According to Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security, «Tehran’s actions were largely symbolic».
Isn’t that why Tehran was not upset by the modest result of the retaliatory strike? The head of the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff said that the targets of Operation True Promise were the information center that provided information about the meeting of the Iranian military in the consulate in Damascus, as well as the Israeli airbase Nevatim. The Iranian military believes they have completed their mission and therefore should not be expected to continue unless provoked.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian reiterated in equally unequivocal terms that Tehran «does not intend to continue defensive operations, but if necessary, it will not hesitate to defend its legitimate interests against any new aggression».
Given the cheering of street demonstrators in Iranian cities — after the exchanging of blows, on a purely formal basis, the score became equal.
Neither the United States nor its European allies in the NATO bloc are ready for the conflict between Israel and Iran to escalate into a full-scale regional war. As an additional lever of pressure on the cabinet of Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, the White House has mobilized the leaders of the G7. In a joint statement, they expressed fear that there is a threat of «uncontrolled escalation in the region». The G7 believes: «This must be avoided».
A subject of understandable concern for the U.S., Western countries in general, and Japan, which has joined them, has been the demonstrative disobedience of two countries in the region, Qatar and Kuwait. The two wealthy oil and gas-dollar emirates have banned U.S. fighter jets from using air bases on their territories. The Pentagon has stationed its combat aircraft at Ali Al-Salem and Ahmed Al-Jaber air bases in Kuwait, as well as Al-Udeid air base in Qatar.
Both Gulf Coast states border Iran and therefore take a neutral stance so as not to accidentally get involved in a major regional war. It is unlikely that 30 years ago they could have afforded to veto the United States’ use of their territory as airfields and supply bases. The times are not the same anymore, the balance of power has changed, and they prefer to be friends with Iran rather than quarrel with it.
A lot of speculation and conjecture was aroused by an emergency meeting of the Israeli military cabinet on Sunday, April 14. According to insider information, unanimity could not be reached. Defense Chief Benny Gantz believed that Iran should pay, but only «in a way and at a time that suits us». National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, considered an ultra-right-wing politician, demanded tough and immediate action.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, who received a call from President Biden immediately after the air raid, will have the final say. On the one hand, the 81-year-old Democratic nominee for re-election assured the U.S. of its «ironclad commitment» to preserving Israel as it is, but on the other hand, called for «careful and strategic consideration» of the risks of escalation in the confrontation with Iran. Biden made it clear that the U.S. would not send its Marines to help the IDF.
Thus, the overriding motive in strategic planning for a possible second round of conflict with Iran is for the Netanyahu cabinet to synchronize its future actions with… the U.S. election campaign.
The point is that Iran has warned the U.S. of its next response if the one-time exchange of airstrikes is not limited to a single exchange of airstrikes and Israel decides to escalate the conflict. Then the Persians will hit American servicemen stationed in the region.
The last thing Commander-in-Chief Biden, who is seeking re-election in November, needs is news reports about the deaths of American citizens in uniform in overseas lands.
The verbal clashes on the Capitol have escalated between supporters of unconditional U.S. support for Israel, despite the terrible martyrology of the bombing of the Gaza Strip (32,000 Palestinians killed, 13,000 of them children), and those advocating an immediate cease-fire and massive humanitarian aid.
A CBS News/YouGov poll last week found that the percentage of Americans who think Biden should urge Netanyahu to call on Netanyahu to stop military action in the Gaza Strip has risen since February, from 31% to 37%. At the same time (the poll was conducted before Sunday’s Iranian attack), in the event of a Persian attack on Israelis, 74% said the U.S. should support Israel but take no action, i.e., not intervene.
One of the side effects of the electorate’s instinctive rejection of the idea of paying for overseas military adventures that do not yield obvious dividends was the statement of two Republican senators, J.D. Vance of Ohio and Mike Lee of Utah, which almost coincided with the Iranian «response». Both senators are against increasing the annual production of shells for Ukraine to 1.2 million by the end of 2025, as planned by the Pentagon, because the Kiev regime needs at least 4–7 million per year.
This is a waste of money, according to Senators J.D. Vance and Mike Lee, who, according to behind-the-scenes rumors, could get prominent positions in the U.S. administration if Trump wins. Tellingly, they attended the X Spaces forum in February, where Elon Musk, who is increasingly making political statements, said: Russia «no way in hell» can lose the conflict in Ukraine.
The message to this category of spontaneous «isolationists», apparently tired of the fact that the trail of American interference in the affairs of other countries and peoples is not getting any shorter, is simple: you need to clean up your own house. And then the voters, willingly or unwillingly, fall into the net of Trump’s campaign slogan «Make America Great Again».
The next logical step: they can vote for Trump, the favorite in the presidential race, and thus upset Biden.
There is no doubt that the campaign of «Sleepy Joe», who spends four days out of ten on the beach near his home in Delaware to regain his health and mental balance, needs a powerful doping. Such a percussive boost to his image and ratings could be his touted reputation as a peacemaker. We have to agree with a blogger under the nickname «From the Banks of the Hudson»:
«If Biden did force Netanyahu to abstain (or so it will be announced), it will be the strongest move of the president’s campaign so far. Left-wing critics will be shown that Biden is keeping Israel in check, while right-wing critics will be shown that Biden is a friend of Israel, since Bibi himself listens to him».
It will soon become clear to what extent Israel remains a «tail wagging the dog» toward the U.S., and to what extent it is dependent on its primary donor and guardian.