Reuters
The alarming tone of two landmark publications on the changing balance of geopolitical forces in the world, which appeared in April in the American journal Foreign Affairs, published by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and in the analytical section of the Bloomberg newswire, makes us take seriously the possible scenario of the West raising the stakes in the confrontation with Russia. Up to sending a new mercenary army of Poles, Frenchmen and various other Swedes to the Ukrainian theater of operations, as well as strikes with ballistic missiles against Russia’s hinterland.
What exactly is so alarming about the conclusions reached by the super-influential CFR magazine in an April 23 article signed by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine (the magazine, however, has a long tradition of front men to disguise the real authors)?
The first inference is not remarkable for its originality. «The Axis of Upheaval. How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order». Quote:
«’The Axis of Upheaval’ represents a new center of gravity — a group to which other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn….. And driving a wedge between the elements of the axis will not work».
No less banal is the author’s tandem’s assertion that the source of existential angst for the West’s promoted «rules-based international order» (which nationalist elites in metropolises large and small change at will) is Russia, which has inspired and conducted the formation of the «Axis of Upheaval».
Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine’s great disappointment, as their article in Foreign Affairs attests, was the four competitive advantages of countries outside Western control that have realized the commonality of their interests. The list includes: bilateral trade, not in U.S. dollars but in national currencies; common borders and coastal zones, logistical routes that the U.S. cannot block; cooperation within the military-industrial sector; and, finally, «coordination in the political, diplomatic and information spheres to weaken international support for Washington’s positions».
«What is so surprising here?» — asks Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT), and lucidly explains why the U.S.-centric world order is cracking at the seams:
«The rest of the world is fed up with the U.S. dictate. A great many countries sleep and see the West suffering a strategic defeat or at least weakening considerably so that they can developed in their national interests rather than in the interests of Western TNCs».
An important detail: the predecessor of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) was The Inquiry, a research group established by American President Woodrow Wilson in 1917 that was charged with developing the concept of U.S. dominance in the post-World War I world. The research was funded by the Rockefellers, Warburgs, Morgans and a number of other financial and banking oligarchs.
For his part, Niall Ferguson, a British historian, writer and journalist, professor at Harvard University, declares on the Bloomberg news agency website the beginning of «The Second Cold Wars Escalating Faster Than the First» in a detailed analysis with sometimes compelling arguments.
Exactly 15 years ago, in April 2009, the same Niall Ferguson already shared his cassandra prophecy that America should prepare for a full-scale war in many theaters of war. It is to him that the term «Axis of Upheaval” was authored.
«Forget Iran, Iraq and North Korea, which constituted the ‘Axis of Evil’ (during the presidency of) Bush», Ferguson warned. We will have to deal «with a larger and potentially more dangerous axis — the ‘Axis of Upheaval’». This axis, he estimated, had at least nine member states at the time, including China, Russia, Mexico, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Commenting on the Harvard professor’s prediction, Market Watch columnist Paul Farrell referred to the calculations of Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist: the war with the old «Axis of Evil» cost the U.S. $10 trillion. This means that the figures in the price tag for waging war with the «Axis of Upheaval» could be an order of magnitude higher.
However, as soon as the lion’s share of appropriations will settle in the accounts of the U.S. military-industrial concerns, which simply represents the redistribution of national wealth in favor of the arms barons and their servants in cockades, there can be no doubt: the Capitol «servants of the people» will willingly legalize this robbery of taxpayers.
The promotion of military hysteria in the West has reached a qualitatively new level, which is fraught with a direct clash on the battlefield. Alexey Pushkov, chairman of the Federation Council Commission on Information Policy and Media Relations, believes so, and cites nine signs in explanation.
In addition to Emmanuel Macron’s bellicose cry, as if he has already sent his regular military units to the Ukrainian theater of operations, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s threatening promise to put the country’s economy on a war footing, it is worth highlighting the seventh factor cited by Senator Pushkov — the exaltation of Europe’s third-rate politicians:
«The testimony of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who reported that the leaders of Western countries with whom he communicates ‘think in terms of war and are obsessed with war’».
At the same time, the prospect of raising the stakes in NATO’s war against Russia is not so clear-cut. In the Russophobe camp, there is also a wing of moderate hawks who pragmatically assess the danger to America of waging two and a half or even more wars.
On May 1, political columnist Bradley Devlin posted on the American Conservative magazine website his thoughts on what the headline of his article says: «The Biden Admin Is Trying to Guarantee a Forever War in Ukraine». Secret negotiations are underway at Kiev’s initiative for a 10-year bilateral security agreement.
As the leader of the Kiev junta stated, «we are working to fix specific levels of support — for this year and for the next ten years. This includes military, financial and political support, and what concerns joint production of weapons».
Ohio Senator J.D. Vance revealed the Obama-Clinton-Biden administration’s intent: «by extending aid to Ukraine beyond 2024, the hawks are trying to limit Trump’s diplomatic options if he returns to the White House and turn his possible refusal to continue support for Kiev into a pretext for impeachment».
In other words, Bradley Devlin summarizes in the last paragraph, the foreign policy establishment has made up its mind: this is at least another decade. So, is it already possible to talk about another «perpetual war»?
The theme of «eternal» or «continuous» war unexpectedly played in a critical speech on the pages of the online edition of IM-1776 former officer of a unit of special forces fighters — «Navy SEALs» Erik Prince, the creator of Blackwater, one of the two most famous PMCs in the world. While remaining inherently American imperialist, Prince nevertheless comes to very unorthodox conclusions:
«The possibility of positive engagement with Russia after 1991 was rejected by the dominant faction of neoconservatives and their allies in the military-industrial complex in Washington».
And further, «Initially Trotskyist, neoconservatives took root in the corporatist wing of the Republican Party and gradually increased their influence to eventually become dominant in Washington’s foreign policy and a symbol of its continuous war mentality, financed by unlimited money issue».
The behind-the-scenes rumors hint that Erik Prince,
a professional «gentleman of fortune», could, if Trump enters the White House, head … the Pentagon.
Publications by prominent figures in American politics indicate that in the third year of NATO’s war with Russia in the Ukrainian theater, the Anglo-Saxons are seriously worried that they may lose the Second Cold War in its hot phase.
We should not get seduced and bet on a new team coming to the White House in January 2025. Neither Trump nor Prince will ever break up with the mentality of the world gendarme and switch from the party of war to the party of pacifists. But we can count on them to calculate their forces more wisely and focus on domestic affairs, where everything is out of hand, and not to get involved in obviously losing overseas ventures, so as not to fall victim to imperial overstretch.