AFP
“Red lines” in the Ukrainian conflict may turn into a black line for Europe
The Ukrainian conflict is increasingly resembling a poker game with millions of lives at stake. And literally every day these stakes are growing; and it is no exaggeration to say that the fate of mankind depends on which side’s nerves fail.
Let us remember how the spiral of conflict has developed. At first, NATO and the US said there was no talk of supplying Western weapons to Ukraine. «Javelins»? No way! We will never give them to the Ukrainian armed forces. In the end, they did.
German Leopards? No way! As a result, Leopards are involved in combat operations.
Western fighter jets? There is nothing to discuss, of course we will not give them. As a result, they were handed over and Ukrainian military pilots or those who will pretend to be them are being trained.
That is, each time another «red line» was drawn, and each time the Western alliance crossed it.
And now the question of what part of Russia the AFU can hit with American missiles is already being discussed. In order to soften the situation, the rhetoric is used to say that not the whole of Russia, but only «the new part», and only partially, and only by agreement with the United States. But who can be fooled by this? It’s like giving a soldier a machine gun and telling him to shoot only to the right, and not to the left. But everyone realizes that he will shoot at everything that moves: right to left and left to right.
And it is quite obvious that the U.S. and NATO are trying on whether they have come to a dangerous line or whether it is possible to go further — to supply Ukraine with more and more powerful weapons, to send instructors and, in fact, parts of Western armies.
The situation may become so uncontrollable that even the Washington Post is already writing: Ukraine’s use of American weapons to strike Russia will not end the conflict. This is another spiral that raises the risk of war between Moscow and NATO.
But NATO and the US seem to have become hostage to their support for Ukraine. At first they thought that the sanctions imposed would tear up the Russian economy and the supply of modern weapons would stop the Russian army, but since this has not happened, they now have no choice but to increase the supply of the most modern weapons to the AFU. They do not allow the defeat of Ukraine, because their voters will ask: why did we spend so much money, ruined relations with Russia, interrupted economic ties that are beneficial to us?
That is why the Western media are not only seriously predicting war, but are already making plans for military campaigns against Russia, although neither Europeans nor Americans are interested in war with Russia.
For example, the Italian Corriere della Sera recently published an open letter from prominent Italian scholars and intellectuals who call for negotiations on peace in Ukraine to begin as soon as possible, warning of the “unprecedented danger to peace,” the risk of escalation that would lead to a conflict between Russia and European NATO countries. At the same time, they point to the «fact that the continent has nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation, the United States, France and the United Kingdom, which only increases the danger». The scholars emphasize that «the European Union and European governments have so far refused to work towards ending the conflict between Ukraine and Russia through diplomacy».
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said the following in an interview with the Hungarian publication Koshuto: «In my opinion, what is happening today in Brussels and Washington, but more so in Brussels than in Washington, is a kind of psychological preparation for Europe’s entry into war. You can see it in the media and in the statements of politicians».
What can we talk about if Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, said he supports the idea of allowing Kiev to fire American long-range missiles “HIMARS” (up to 300 kilometers) at military and industrial targets in Russia. Although not long ago there were statements that only Crimea and new territories could be the target of American missiles. Meanwhile, Macron declares readiness to send French soldiers to Ukraine, Poland is discussing how to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine from the territory of NATO countries. The Overton’s window is opening more and more, but we hope that entire states and nations will not fall into it. After all, it is obvious that Russia will not watch helplessly as American missiles fly into its cities. And already in May, Russian troops began the first military exercises with tactical nuclear weapons in the history of independent Russia.
It seems that so far this has not cooled down the hotheads either. And now, according to the Telegraph blog platform, NATO is preparing numerous land corridors for the urgent transfer of American troops and armored vehicles to the front line in the event of a major ground war with Russia in Europe…
But it is clear that this does not go unanswered by Russia. Such statements are deliberately provoking Moscow to retaliate in order to say: we didn’t start it first; we were simply preparing to repel Russian aggression by pulling together troops and pumping Ukraine with modern weapons.
The plan, according to the Telegraph, which cites North Atlantic Alliance officials, is as follows: U.S. soldiers will land at one of five ports in Europe and follow pre-prepared routes to repel a possible Moscow offensive. NATO’s top leadership is warning Western countries to prepare for a conflict with Russia that could happen in the next 20 years.
The next 20 years? The feeling is that the U.S. and NATO would like to start a conflict soon, as soon as they feel they are ready. In the meantime, there is a constant testing of Russia’s designated «red lines». Step by step, they are testing how far they can be violated and how far they can go. It is felt that the situation is already becoming more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. In response, Moscow warns Washington that in the event of a strike by U.S. long-range missiles, it will respond with a strike on U.S. military bases, primarily in Europe (this cannot become a pretext for nuclear war, since the bases are not on U.S. territory).
Obviously, even if the Ukrainians strike with longer-range missiles deep into Russian territory, this will not lead to Russian capitulation. On the contrary. The people will rally around Putin, saying: so he was right, it was the West and America that declared war on us.
And what, these strikes will destroy Russia’s armed forces, its decision-making centers? Very doubtful. First of all, Russia has a huge territory, and secondly, it has 6,000 nuclear warheads. It is quite obvious that in case of necessity, if it is considered a threat to the very existence of the state, Russia can use its nuclear potential.
As Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, noted in his May interview, which was received with alarm in the West, in case of further escalation on the part of the West, Russia will have to strike NATO (American) bases in Poland, Germany, or Romania (where the main flow of aid to Ukraine comes from) with conventional weapons, and that Moscow will immediately «back this up with the threat that in case of a retaliatory strike on Russian territory, a limited strike with nuclear weapons on the same bases will follow».
- We are moving toward a world war, and our leadership must make a terrible moral choice, and if we do not make it, we will put ourselves and the rest of the world on the brink of defeat, Karaganov concluded.
It is clear that neither the West nor Russia wants a global nuclear war, everyone realizes that there will be no winners, but an exchange of blows with non-nuclear weapons can take place. And Ukraine is the most interested in this. Realizing that the idea of returning Crimea and Novorossiya is an illusion and that it cannot win on the battlefield, it will provoke Russia in every possible way to make drastic moves so that the US and NATO will directly enter the conflict.
The current situation is very similar to a little boy running up to a passerby in an alley and insulting him, and the latter wants to kick him, and then the adult bullies appear….
Thus, having received even more powerful American and NATO weapons, Ukraine will try to provoke a conflict of such force that Brussels and Washington will be directly involved in it.
But we must take into account the psychology of President Putin. He is a logical man, able to wait and not at all inclined to emotional actions under the influence of the minute. In addition, he stresses in every possible way that he is not at war with America and the West, emphasizing his commitment to international treaties.
His statements in June during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum at a meeting with heads of foreign news agencies are very revealing.
Russia does not threaten anyone, much less other heads of state, Putin said when asked if Moscow had threatened German Chancellor Scholz over his decision on military supplies to Ukraine.
«We are not threatening anyone… This is a mauveton, not a good tone», — at the same time President Putin said that Moscow has the right to supply weapons for attacks on the West to other countries ~ in response to the AFU receiving long-range weapons and hitting Russian territory with them.
«Why don’t we have the right to supply our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where sensitive targets of those countries that are doing this against Russia are being hit?» — the Russian leader rhetorically inquired.
In other words, it was made clear in a completely open text that the United States and the West have many hot spots, and Russia can heat them up even more.
In addition, Vladimir Putin drew attention to the fact that the Ukrainian military cannot independently use Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles. They choose the targets, but they are not the ones who decide whether to strike or not.
«Because a flight task is formed and it is practically entered by those who supply the weapons», Putin explained. In other words, the excuse that we have nothing to do with it will not pass.
Therefore, Putin urged «not to bring» Russia to the use of nuclear weapons, recalling that the power of Russian tactical nuclear weapons is 70–75 kilotons.
«Let’s not bring it not only to the point of use, but even to the threat of use. For some reason, the West believes that Russia will never use it….. You can’t take this lightly, superficially. We must treat it professionally», Putin warned.
A simple conclusion follows from all this: don’t lead us into sin, don’t force us to use nuclear weapons. After all, if Russia feels that a direct conflict with NATO has begun, it will use nuclear weapons against military targets. And the first target, Western analysts predict, will be Ramstein, the largest U.S. military base outside the United States, which houses the headquarters of the U.S. Air Force in Europe and 60,000 Americans, as well as NATO’s Joint Aviation Command.
We hope that this is also understood in the American decision-making centers. The task before them is obvious — to provide assistance to Ukraine, but so as not to force Russia to use the power of its nuclear weapons. Biden faces the same task before the elections: on the one hand, to show himself a defender of democracy and a winner in Ukraine, and on the other hand, not to drag the United States into a nuclear war, after which the number of voters may sharply decrease.
But how then to explain the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on two Russian strategic radar sites? Doesn’t this mean probing the ground for the use of U.S. strategic bombers and tactical aircraft over Russian territory?
No one knows what step the Russians might see as a point of no return.