Former Infrastructure and Communities Minister under Justin Trudeau’s government, Catherine McKenna, has become the first politician to publicly call for a new candidate for the position of Prime Minister of Canada. Several party members of parliament agreed with her but did so anonymously. So, does Trudeau have one last chance for redemption, or were the results of the by-elections in June the final straw?
On June 24, 2024, the Liberal Party of Canada lost the by-elections in the federal district of Toronto-St. Paul. The victory went to Don Stewart, who became the first Conservative Party MP to represent this district in 36 years. Since 2011, the Canadian Tories have not shown any significant results in the elections in Toronto’s urban districts.
Canada operates under a first-past-the-post system — to win an election, one simply needs to secure more votes than the opponent. The winner takes a seat in the House of Commons — the lower house of the federal parliament of Canada. Don Stewart edged out Liberal Leslie Church by only 1.6 %, obtaining 42.1 % of the votes compared to 40.5 %.
However, the Canadian media gave the voters’ choice in Toronto districts truly momentous significance — it was seen as a referendum on Trudeau, who risks losing the next year’s election. Toronto-St. Paul was considered a Liberal stronghold, so their loss raised serious concerns even among those party members who were confident they would retain their seats in the House of Commons. The pessimism regarding the party’s prospects under Trudeau’s leadership grew so much that the country’s Prime Minister had to say that he was aware of Canadians’ «concern and frustration».
The next national convention of the Liberal Party is scheduled to take place in British Columbia in September this year. However, MPs are unanimous in stating that the discussion of the crushing defeat cannot be postponed until autumn. CBC News quotes one of the party representatives: «If we wait until September to bolster our pre-election strategy, we will write our own obituary».
The dangerous trend for the Liberals and personally for Trudeau is also indicated by national public opinion polls. In May, Writ.Ca reported that the ratings of the Conservatives and Liberals were 42% and 23% respectively. Poll results from Abacus in June, conducted after the by-elections, show that only 33% of respondents continue to support the Canadian leader, while 59% have a negative view of the Prime Minister.
Another interesting survey was conducted by the American Pew Research Center. According to their results, dissatisfaction with the state of democracy has been steadily increasing since 2021 in 12 developed countries. In Canada, the «satisfaction indicator» with the democratic regime decreased from 66% to 52% over four years.
These data suggest a systemic crisis in Western democracies. The failed debates in the USA, the defeats of Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron in the elections in the UK and France, the return of right-wing forces in European politics — it is evident that voters in Western countries are dissatisfied with the current balance of power. The question is, do they have anyone to choose from?
What are the specifics of Canadian electorate discontent? The first concern for voters is always the economy. Since 2022, the Bank of Canada has been trying to maintain a balance and slow down economic growth enough to curb inflation, but not so much as to lead to a recession. The June report of the Canadian Central Bank argues that its strategy has worked: economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after slowing down in the second half of 2023, inflation decreased, and wage levels are recovering. The situation should remain favorable until the end of this year.
But risks remain. Firstly, the slowdown in real estate market growth has led to deferred demand across the country, which could result in a housing market overheating once mortgage lending resumes after interest rate cuts. Secondly, population growth due to immigrants in the first quarter of 2024 was about a million people — the country’s population reached 41 million. Meanwhile, the federal government announced its intention to reduce the share of people with temporary resident status in Canada’s population by 19% over the next three years. This factor could negatively impact economic shifts.
It is likely that the stringent monetary policy is finally paying off. The Canadian economy is recovering, but as is usually the case after prolonged crises, it is slow and comes with unpleasant consequences. Trudeau’s second term as Prime Minister is remembered by Canadians for the burden of high prices for consumer goods and real estate. Convincing them otherwise in a year will be difficult.
Migration, by the way, remains a headache for the Liberals, just like in the USA. Trudeau’s government extended agreements with the provincial governments of Ottawa and Quebec regarding the detention of illegal immigrants. Previously, all provinces had rejected these agreements, but it seems two of them have backtracked. This means that illegal immigrants will be placed not only in overcrowded federal prisons but also in provincial correctional facilities.
Another heavy burden for Canadians has been climate policy. On April 1, 2024, the federal government increased the carbon tax from $65 to $80 per ton. This tax is intended to incentivize citizens to make «greener» choices amid rising gasoline and diesel fuel costs.
Canadians generally represent a fairly «green» nation advocating for active measures in combating climate change, but the rising cost of living makes them prioritize this issue lower. In March, polls showed that 56% of Canadians consider economic issues to be a priority, even if it harms climate policy.
After the Liberals’ defeat in Toronto-St. Paul, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre wrote on the social network X: «Here’s the verdict: Trudeau cannot continue in the same way. He must call an election on the carbon tax right now». Previously, in March, he brought a vote of no confidence due to the carbon tax, which he believes is too costly for Canadians.
It is not so important what specific measures the Conservatives propose in 2025. No matter how hard the Liberal government tries, the Canadian electorate has become tired of its ineffective decisions over the past few years. The most likely scenario is that voters will cast their ballots for the Conservatives in hopes of change and a reduction in the cost of living.