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The approaching anniversary of the October 7 attack from Gaza makes the situation even more tense. To strike or to hold back?
After Operation «Pager», in which Hezbollah activists’ communication devices exploded in their hands, and the bombing of Lebanon, which resulted in the destruction of Hezbollah’s leadership and several Iranian generals, Israel invaded Lebanon. In response, Iran launched a rocket attack against the Jewish state. Now everyone is waiting for Israel’s retaliation against Iran.
What happened after the Hamas attack from Gaza on October 7 of last year? Israel’s status as a state with one of the world’s most powerful intelligence services and the strongest regional army in the Middle East declined significantly. Where was the cunning intelligence when hundreds of Gazans instantly bypassed all control and security systems and stormed into Israel? Where was the vaunted army when Palestinians spent hours taking hostages, shooting festival-goers and storming kibbutzim?
A year has passed. It became clear that both Israeli intelligence and the army needed to rehabilitate themselves and prove that they were still strong. As the dark date of October 7th approached, Israeli intelligence and the IDF became more active. They had to regain their former status by taking the initiative. It must be admitted that they succeeded to some extent, especially after the elimination of almost the entire Hezbollah leadership, several Iranian generals and the organization’s leader, Nasrallah.
However, the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah did not solve the problem. In his place, Safi al-Din, Nasrallah’s cousin and a relative of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general killed in an American airstrike, took over as Hezbollah’s leader. Safi al-Din’s son is married to the daughter of the late Iranian commander, which means he has personal and close ties to the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). While Nasrallah tried to avoid getting involved in a major regional war, Safi al-Din supports a much tougher stance against Israel.
But can it be said that Israel has solved the «Hezbollah problem» for itself with pager explosions and the bombing of Beirut? Obviously not. The positions of the fallen leaders have been filled by new individuals who are just as implacable against Israel. All weapons and ammunition depots cannot be completely destroyed, even with all the bombing. Moreover, the Houthis’ Ansar Allah, Iraqi Shiite groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad (recognized as terrorist organizations and banned in Russia) remain undefeated. It is clear that once the shock wears off, they will regroup and resume their «holy war».
It was clear that Iran would not let Israel’s series of attacks on Shiite Hezbollah and the IDF’s incursion into southern Lebanon pass without consequences. In addition, Iran had to respond to the bombings in Lebanon, the attack on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah controlled by the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, and the attacks in Syria and Iraq.
Everyone understood that Tehran could not remain silent or lose face. Thus, on October 1, Iran launched a missile attack over Israel, called «True Promise-2», since the first operation with this name was an Iranian missile attack on Israel on April 13, 2024. Some reports say that 150 missiles were fired, while others say about 300. As usual, both sides declared victory at the end of the attack.
Iran claimed to have destroyed 20 Israeli aircraft, hit the Mossad headquarters, and hit several military bases. The Israelis dismissed these claims of «terrible destruction» by Iranian missiles, saying that all the fighter jets were intact, all the missiles were intercepted, and the only casualty was an illegal Arab immigrant hit by missile debris. However, it must be acknowledged that Israel’s «Iron Dome» failed to intercept some of the rockets. In the end, both sides were happy: Iran saved face by launching a missile attack, including ballistic missiles, while Israel gained the opportunity to continue its military actions, pointing out that Iran is the destabilizing factor in the Middle East.
The main takeaway is that Iran demonstrated its ability to penetrate the air defense systems of Israel and the United States, which also participated in repelling the attack.
Meanwhile, Tehran is constantly faced with the challenge of walking a fine line: saving face in the Muslim world by launching an attack, but doing so in a way that does not provoke a war with the United States. Iran is well aware that it cannot win a war against the Israeli-American-Western coalition.
With the arrival of the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran has actively demonstrated its willingness to engage in dialogue with the West. However, it could not remain silent after the assassination of Nasrallah and the top leadership of Hezbollah, the bombing of Beirut, and the entry of the Israeli army into Lebanon. According to several sources cited by the New York Times, President Pezeshkian was not even aware of the recent missile attack on Israel until it had already begun. The attack was carried out by the air force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not the Iranian army, which, if true, indicates a lack of unity within the Iranian leadership.
It should also be remembered that Iran, which has long positioned itself as the main defender of Muslims in the region, risked losing its status as the protector of Palestinian rights and the leader of the Muslim world after a series of Israeli attacks on the leadership of Hezbollah. Therefore, further escalation by Iran can be expected to reaffirm its place at the forefront of resistance to Israel. The Sunni Arab states are not pleased to see Iran unilaterally appoint itself as the primary defender of Muslim interests. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, for example, have long had Hezbollah on their terrorist lists. The Arab countries would like to bring Syria and Lebanon back into their sphere of influence, where Iran currently has strong positions. To achieve this, they need to weaken both Hezbollah and Iran, and for some Arab states it would be preferable to have Israel do this for them.
Some Arab states have already established relations (for example, Israel signed the Abraham Accords — four peace treaties with four Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco), and others are also open to establishing normal relations with Israel, and through it with the United States, in order to trade successfully and enjoy all the benefits of the modern world. It is no coincidence that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the moderate Arab countries from the podium of the UN General Assembly: «Iran and its supporters want to drag us into an era of terror. I have a question for you — what choice will you make? Will your country support Israel, democracy and peace, or will you support Iran — a brutal dictatorship that exports terror around the world?»
It is hard to believe that his speech was not coordinated with the Americans. Through Netanyahu, the Arabs are openly offered a choice: Iran or the United States and the Western world.
Incidentally, at the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu presented a map of Arab countries marked with blessings and curses. However, there was no hint of a Palestinian state on this map; instead, there was a bold arrow showing a potential trade corridor from Europe through Saudi Arabia and Israel. This corridor would run through the Arabian Peninsula and Israel, connecting India to Europe through sea and rail routes, pipelines, and fiber-optic cables. In addition, this corridor would bypass the «choke points» of current sea routes, significantly reducing the cost of goods, communications, and energy for over two billion people.
After signing the Abraham Accords with several Arab countries, Israel was ready to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia. However, after the attack from Gaza on October 7, 2023, this issue was left in limbo indefinitely. Therefore, there is a theory that the attack from Gaza was carried out precisely to disrupt the signing of the agreement with Saudi Arabia, as such a signing would significantly weaken Iran’s position in the region. Consequently, Israel, the U.S. and Europe believe that the main obstacle to the construction of the corridor is Iran.
Meanwhile, the IDF is conducting its special operation in Lebanon, with the Israeli army entering in what appears to be a limited contingent. Its main task is to control a 30-mile zone in southern Lebanon and secure the northern territories.
For now, Iran has limited itself to a missile attack on Israel, but more alarming information is emerging.
NBC, citing an Iranian source, reports that Tehran may decide in the coming days to send its soldiers into Lebanon. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official stated that «senior officials will approve the deployment of troops to Lebanon and the Golan Heights».
Bloomberg reports that Iran will seek to deploy thousands of fighters to the border areas of Lebanon and Syria. An informed source told the agency that Syria and Iraq will become key channels for replenishing Hezbollah’s resources after the Israeli strikes. The source also noted that several thousand fighters have been transferred from Iraq to Syria over the past two months, indicating that Tehran is preparing to strengthen its positions.
However, if Iran decides to deploy large forces, it will not go unnoticed by the Israeli Air Force, which will attempt to destroy the military contingent from the air. This would result in even more casualties and could escalate into a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, possibly involving the United States on Israel’s side.
It seems that this ping-pong game in the Middle East will continue for a long time, as each side must react to the other’s actions, but with extreme caution to avoid slipping into a serious war.
What is the way out of this impasse in the Middle East? Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov answered this question at a meeting of the UN General Assembly, stating: «We consistently and unwaveringly believe in the need for full and comprehensive implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which outlines Israel’s obligations to cease all offensive military operations, withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and end the occupation of Lebanese territories, as well as Hezbollah’s obligation to withdraw all formations north of the Litani River. Indiscriminate attacks that result in civilian casualties are categorically unacceptable. The path of war chosen by West Jerusalem will not contribute to the return of internally displaced persons to the north of the country, nor will it ensure security in the Lebanon-Israel border area», the Minister stressed.
In other words, a return to international agreements is necessary because the deployment of Israeli troops in Lebanon could lead to a long and arduous war for all sides with no winner, similar to what happened in 2006 when the IDF entered Lebanon. Meanwhile, everyone is waiting to see how Israel will respond to the rocket attack on its territory on October 1. It is unlikely that Israel will launch a missile or air strike on Iranian territory, as the U.S. would not allow it, but an indirect response is almost certain.