Global Look Press
Immediately after the Iranian missile strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Iran «made a big mistake and will pay for it». The United States, through National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, stated: «We have made clear that this attack will have consequences, serious consequences, and we will work with the Israelis to ensure that it does».
The main question on everyone’s mind, not only in the Middle East, is when and how Israel will respond to the October 1st attack by Iran. There is no doubt that Israel will respond, even among the Iranians themselves. Not for nothing did Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei deliver his first public Friday sermon in four years, which was essentially a state warning to Israel. Judging by this sermon, Iran intends to continue its confrontation with Israel, and tensions are not abating.
Let me outline the main points of this sermon:
1. We are obliged to protect the Islamic nation — from Afghanistan to Yemen and from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon.
2. The Palestinian people have every right to rise up against the occupiers. The «Al-Aqsa Flood» (the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023) is a legitimate and natural step for the Palestinian people.
3. No one has the right to criticize the Lebanese for supporting their Palestinian brothers.
4. The action of our armed forces in support of Gaza a few days ago (the massive rocket attack on Israel) is legitimate and fully justified.
5. The Islamic Republic will do what it deems necessary. We will not be pacified or rushed.
6. Martyr Hassan Nasrallah was a symbol of resistance and a brave defender of the oppressed.
7. The cowardly enemy failed to strike the resistance structures effectively, so it resorted to a policy of murder and destruction.
8. The Zionist entity (Israel), which received enormous support from America and the West, was defeated in the face of several thousand Mujahideen. The enemies will never succeed in defeating Hamas and Hezbollah.
9. The resistance in the region will not weaken after the martyrdom of its leaders and people, and victory will become its ally.
10. Survival is an obsession of the Zionist entity, which means that the Palestinian resistance has pushed it back 70 years.
11. The main factor of wars, instability and backwardness in this region is the Zionist entity and the presence of countries that claim to seek security and peace in the region.
Equally bellicose were the remarks of Ali Sardar Fadavi, deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who said that if Israel attacked, Iran would retaliate by attacking its oil refineries and gas fields. What is behind these words? In modern warfare, it is clear that hitting energy systems can set a country back many years and render it virtually incapable of resistance.
Israel, for its part, has announced that it may attack Iran’s energy systems. In particular, on September 29, the Israelis launched airstrikes on Houthi ports in Yemen, from where oil is transported. In addition to punishing the Houthis, this strike on the port of Hodeidah, located 1,800 km from Israel, also carried an unmistakable message to Iran — demonstrating that the Israeli air force can strike targets even farther away, reaching the Islamic Republic. Israeli army chief of staff Herzi Halevi said: «We know how to reach very far, we know how to go even further, and we know how to strike accurately. This is not a message; this is action».
Just recently, U.S. President Joe Biden said at a White House press conference, «If I were Israel, I would consider alternative strikes on Iranian oil facilities». This makes it clear that this would become a war between two countries targeting each other’s energy systems. What will this lead to? An increase in energy prices, since Iran exports between 1 and 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, or about 1 percent of the world oil market, with China being the main buyer. In addition, mutual attacks on energy systems would lead to a major environmental disaster in the region.
It seems that the region is headed for a major war. Neither side can retreat, because the opponent will perceive it as a sign of weakness, and the weak are doomed in the Middle East. Therefore, it is obvious that Israel will not forgive the two rocket attacks on its territory, although it must be admitted that the Iranians carried them out with precision: they managed to fire about 2,000 rockets in two instances and caused almost no significant damage! Nevertheless, it is clear that Israel is planning a retaliatory strike, and the U.S. has already stated that it does not object to this.
According to The Daily Mail, there are three possible options for a retaliatory strike.
Option One: Israel now has a reason to attack Iran’s nuclear bomb project, which worries not only Tel Aviv but also the White House. The target of such an attack could be the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which houses reactors, a uranium processing plant, and a nuclear fuel production facility. In April of this year, Israel bombed a nearby military facility, warning the Iranian authorities that their nuclear research center was within reach of the Israeli air force.
Incidentally, Israel has not assured the Biden administration that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is off the table, CNN reports, citing a senior U.S. State Department official. U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump even said Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. «It’s the target you all would like to hit», Trump exclaimed at a rally in North Carolina during his election campaign.
But it is frightening to imagine what could happen and what the consequences of such a strike would be, as in the worst case scenario, rising radioactive clouds could contaminate the entire region. No one knows for sure what could happen because there is no precedent in human history for bombing nuclear facilities. It should also be considered that if such a bombing occurs, the Iranians, feeling they have nothing to lose, might use anything in response, including dirty bombs, chemical and biological weapons.
Option Two: An airstrike on Iran’s arsenal, missile concentration sites, drones and military depots. However, as experts note, Iran’s arsenal is scattered throughout the country, so Israel would have to strike at command centers that are deep underground and well-fortified.
Option Three: A powerful strike on Khark Island, home to Iran’s only oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. In this case, however, oil prices would skyrocket. For the Americans, especially before the elections, a rise in fuel prices and shortages are highly undesirable. They vividly remember the 1973 oil crisis, also known as the «oil embargo», when all the Arab OAPEC members, along with Egypt and Syria, declared that they would not supply oil to countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. This primarily affected the U.S. and its allies in Western Europe.
Thus, by attacking Iran’s oil industry, Israel could lose the support of its American and European allies. As The Daily Mail writes: «If Israel strikes Iran’s oil industry, Europe faces shame and disgrace as it will be forced to go cap in hand to buy Russian oil — but this time through trusted agents and middlemen». This means that the price would be completely different, and it raises the question: would Europe survive after giving up Russian gas and oil in the event of a new oil crisis?
The next question posed by the Al Jazeera journalists is: What is the military potential of the opposing sides? What can they use against each other in case of war?
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) bulletin published in April 2024, Iran spent $10.3 billion on its armed forces in 2023, which is 0.6% more than in 2022.
Israel spent $27.5 billion on its military in 2023, 24% more than in 2022 — an increase partly due to the war in Gaza.
Opposing Armies: According to The Military Balance 2023 report, Iran has 610,000 active military personnel, including 350,000 in the Army, 190,000 in the IRGC, 18,000 in the Navy, 37,000 in the Air Force, and 15,000 in Air Defense. Iran also has a reserve army of 350,000. Male citizens over the age of 18 are subject to military conscription.
Israel has 169,500 active military personnel, including 126,000 in the army, 9,500 in the navy, and 34,000 in the air force. Israel also has a reserve army of 465,000.
Armor and Artillery: Iran has approximately 10,513 battle tanks, 6,798 artillery pieces, and at least 640 armored personnel carriers. The army also has 50 helicopters, and the IRGC has 5 helicopters.
Israel has about 400 battle tanks, 530 artillery pieces, and more than 1,190 armored personnel carriers.
Air Force: The Iranian Air Force has 312 operational aircraft, while the IRGC has an additional 23. In addition, the Iranian Air Force has 50 attack helicopters and the IRGC has 5.
Israel has 345 operational aircraft and 43 attack helicopters.
Navy: Iran has a naval force consisting of 17 tactical submarines, 68 patrol and coastal combat ships, 7 corvettes, 12 landing ships, 11 landing craft, and 18 logistic and support vessels. In comparison, Israel’s naval fleet includes 5 submarines and 49 patrol and coastal combat ships.
Air Defense: Iran possesses a variety of surface-to-air missile defense systems. These include over 42 Russian S-200, S-300 and domestically produced Bavar-373 long-range systems; over 59 American MIM-23 Hawk, HQ-2J and Khordad-15 medium-range systems; and 279 Chinese short-range SAM systems, such as the CH-SA-4 and 9K331 Tor-M1. In February, Tehran deployed the Azarakhsh («Lightning» in Persian), a low-altitude, short-range missile system. This infrared detection system is equipped with radar and electro-optical systems for target detection and interception and can be mounted on vehicles.
Israel, on the other hand, has the «Iron Dome», with each launcher equipped with 20 interceptor missiles. There are 10 Iron Dome batteries throughout Israel. Other air defense systems intercept medium- and long-range missiles. The «David’s Sling» intercepts missiles with a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles) to 300 kilometers (186 miles). The Arrow (Hetz) system can intercept missiles with a range of up to 1,491 miles (2,400 kilometers).
Nuclear Weapons: Tehran is not believed to possess nuclear weapons, but it has an advanced nuclear program and several nuclear facilities and research centers. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a religious decree (fatwa) in the early 2000s prohibiting the development or use of nuclear weapons, stating that it is forbidden in Islam. In May, however, Tehran threatened to change its nuclear doctrine «if Iran’s existence is threatened».
Israel has at least 90 nuclear warheads in its arsenal, according to estimates by the U.S.-based Arms Control Association.
As we can see, Iran has a larger number of military personnel, ground equipment, air and naval forces. However, Israel, with its smaller armed forces, has more advanced technology and nuclear weapons that could instantly change the balance of power in the Middle East. But would the Middle East remain habitable in such a scenario?
Since Israel and Iran do not share a common border, Iran cannot exploit its advantage in manpower and artillery. Deploying Iranian army units in Lebanon and Syria is not very productive, as they would become easy targets for the Israeli Air Force. At most, Iran can conduct missile attacks and engage in air combat, but while Israel has modern American F-16 and F-35 aircraft, Iran has outdated aircraft models and assembled copies of foreign technology that are inferior to the Israeli Air Force.
The next move is Israel’s. Which of the three responses will it choose? As President Joe Biden stated, «Israeli authorities will not make an immediate decision». It is clear that Israel intends to keep Iran in suspense as to when and in what form the retaliation will take place.