Luisa González
Ecuador’s presidential race has so far ended in a «technical tie», with a runoff scheduled for April 13
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced that Ecuador’s borders will be closed for three days starting this Saturday. He also ordered an increased military presence in the border areas and the «immediate militarization of the ports». More than 100,000 police and military personnel have been deployed throughout the country to ensure security.
Nothing unusual — just another Sunday of nationwide elections. It’s the same massive deployment of military and police forces in the streets, the same escalation of criminal gang violence, and the same lack of security in the country, even with the mobilization of military units.
At least 50 police officers escorted Noboa, his wife, and their two-year-old son to the polling station in the small town of Olon on the Pacific coast. Contingents of special forces and bodyguards also accompanied the candidates for the nation’s highest office to prevent a repeat of the 2023 elections — when one of the leading contenders was killed. And not without reason.
Ecuador’s National Police officially reported that 602 people were arrested on election day for crimes such as rape, illegal trafficking of psychoactive substances, murder, robbery, possession and carrying of weapons, fraud, and other offenses. Meanwhile, the Integrated Security Service responded to 5,630 registered emergencies. All in all, it was an ordinary day — except for the mandatory participation of citizens in the election.
Nearly 14 million Ecuadorians voted for a president from a field of 16 candidates. According to the law, to win a majority, a candidate must receive either 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10% margin over the nearest rival. In the first round, with virtually identical pre-election platforms and promises, this proved nearly impossible, as the results showed.
With a turnout of 92.03%, the candidate of the National Democratic Action (Acción Democrática Nacional — ADN), the current president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, received 44.31% of the vote, while his rival, Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution (Revolución Ciudadana — RC), received 43.83%. In third place was the leftist candidate of the indigenous movement «Pachakutik», Leonidas Iza, with 5.26% of the vote, followed by environmental activist Andrea González Nader (Patriotic Society) with 2.71%.
The remaining twelve candidates each received less than 1% of the vote.
In addition, 151 members of the National Assembly and 5 members of the Andean Parliament were elected.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 13. Moreover, the dismal results of the 12 outsiders — who together received about 11% of the vote — could dramatically alter Ecuador’s political landscape, where they seem to have room to benefit. After all, they could determine the outcome of the runoff. This is hardly surprising in a country mired in corruption.
Experts following Ecuador’s pre-election campaign noted that none of the contenders for the nation’s highest office offered anything more than clichéd phrases typical of politicians: militarizing prisons, ports, and customs services; toughening sentences for criminals of all kinds; declaring that they would build more prisons (including one in the open sea); promoting new laws that could make it easier to prosecute minors as adults; and promising that they would finally end corruption. There was nothing concrete on how to overcome the economic and energy crises, or to address the problem of widespread poverty.
The means and methods of achieving even these goals have not been the subject of much public discussion. But this does not seem to matter to an electorate that, in the midst of an unprecedented economic and security crisis, is increasingly leaning toward «mano dura» (a firm hand) or tough politics. Is a mere whip enough?
It is precisely this «firm hand» that 37-year-old President Daniel Noboa is offering. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School and a member of one of Ecuador’s richest families — whose fortune is based in part on banana exports — Noboa was an unknown politician just five years ago. In 2021, he was elected to Ecuador’s Legislative Assembly, where he served one term. His predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, had called for early elections in 2023 to avoid impeachment on embezzlement charges. During the first round of the campaign, Noboa unexpectedly surged from the bottom of the polls to qualify for the runoff and defeat Gonzalez. The young demagogue proved more effective than the old guard.
If he wins, Noboa will immediately join the group of Latin American leaders supporting US President Trump.
Meanwhile, 47-year-old Luisa Gonzalez — a lawyer — belongs to the party of former President Rafael Correa, an influential and controversial political figure who was forced into exile to avoid prosecution on corruption charges. Many voters are nostalgic for the low crime rates and strong economy that marked his presidency. But those were different times. Now his running mate, Luisa Gonzalez, who promises a comprehensive strategy to fight crime and improve the economy, has gained support among those affected by worsening crime and rising unemployment.
If Gonzalez wins in the second round, she would join the so-called «pink tide» of center-left governments in Latin America.
But whoever ascends Ecuador’s political Olympus will have to confront the serious challenges facing the country’s nearly 18 million people — namely, the pervasive violence and poverty that have forced tens of thousands of Ecuadorians to emigrate to the United States. Each year, Ecuador receives approximately $4 billion in remittances from its citizens living in the United States, and any reduction in these remittances will hit many families hard. In his bid to secure the support of the Trump administration, Noboa is already prepared to accept migrants, impose tariffs on Mexican goods and reject favorable proposals from Beijing.
In general, it is hard to say what is more frightening: a socio-economic catastrophe or the lack of security resulting from rampant crime. Most likely, it is both.
Renato Rivera-Ron, director of the Ecuadorian Observatory on Organized Crime, explains this by saying that «the candidates are leaning toward a discourse centered on militarization and punitive populism». As a result, he says, the government is «observing what is happening rather than actively participating in it». «Every day we feel that the increase or decrease in the level of violence depends less on government policies than on the agreements between criminal groups», Rivera-Ron says.
Violence remains widespread in Ecuador. Over the past five years, the scale of the illegal drug trade has expanded, attracting international criminal organizations and generating unprecedented levels of violence. The idea that Ecuador was once a peaceful oasis on a blazing continent has become the stuff of legend.
During Noboa’s presidency, the murder rate fell from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 last year. By comparison, in 2019 the figure was 6.85 per 100,000. In just 31 days in January this year, police recorded 750 cases of violent deaths.
The rise in homicides in this South American country is linked to the cocaine trade, with production taking place in neighboring Colombia and Peru. Mexican, Colombian, and Albanian cartels have taken root in Ecuador and operate with the support of local criminal groups. In Ecuador, at least twenty gangs are involved in illegal drug trafficking, kidnapping, and extortion — sowing terror and death throughout the country.
In 2024, authorities arrested more than 60,000 suspected criminals, and the government seized 280 tons of illegal drugs — 29% more than in 2023.
Political scientist and security expert Catherine Herrera says the Noboa administration is more concerned with promoting a security strategy than implementing it. «That’s where all the problems come from», she says.
On the economic front, Ecuador experienced an economic downturn in 2024, caused in part by a severe energy crisis that led to widespread blackouts. Since last September, Ecuador has been suffering from scheduled blackouts, in some cases lasting more than 12 hours a day, due to a drought that has reduced hydroelectric generation, the country’s main source of energy, and a lack of investment in infrastructure in previous years.
In the fourth quarter of last year, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.5% year-on-year, one of the worst figures since the pandemic. In this situation, the International Monetary Fund approved a $4 billion, 48-month loan in May 2024, with an immediate disbursement of $1 billion, which brought some relief to the country and was hailed as a victory for the Noboa government. At the same time, the poverty rate increased from 26% in December 2023 to 28% in the same month in 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses.
Security, the economy, a nationwide energy crisis, and international relations are among the major challenges facing the next government that will take office in May this year. And these problems must be genuinely resolved, not just made to look as if they’re being solved.
Now Ecuadorians have 63 days to choose between the continuity of their young president or a change that would make a woman head of state for the first time. Either way, both ideologies lead to the same result.