Ahmed al-Sharaa
Will Moscow be able to establish relations with the new leadership of this country, and will Russian military bases remain there?
After the fall of the Assad regime, many predicted that the new Syrian government would demand the closure of the Russian bases and that Moscow would never be able to restore the old friendly relations. Is this really the case?
Any situation in the Middle East should be viewed as a long, multi-episode movie with a constantly changing plot. And the changes are dramatic.
If you consider the first episode as the initial foreign policy contacts of Syria’s leaders, one might get the impression that the country is now firmly tied to Turkey and its Arab neighbors. Consider this: the Emir of Qatar was the first head of state to visit Syria after the fall of Assad; Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, and in addition, al-Sharaa visited Turkey and met with President Erdogan. However, let us not forget that a delegation of Russian diplomats was also in Damascus for an important meeting with Ahmed al-Sharaa. Just by listing the meetings of representatives of various countries with the new post-war Syrian leadership, it is clear that an active struggle for influence in the country is underway.
What did al-Sharaa demand from the Russian side? Compensation for the destruction and the handing over of Assad. In other words, the new Syrian authorities are following an old Eastern tradition: they immediately set a high price in order to barter for something. It is absolutely obvious that Russia will not hand over Assad because it would lose face in the entire Middle East.
Now to the compensation. As they say, it’s a question of price: ask for the maximum and get at least something. The Syrians themselves admit that Russia did not bomb civilian cities and infrastructure, but only militants.
The main takeaway from these negotiations is that the new Syrian authority is not abandoning cooperation with Russia, unlike Iran, with which it wants nothing to do. In an interview with the BBC, al-Sharaa emphasized that there are «long-standing strategic relations» between Syria and Moscow, and declared that he was «in no hurry to kick Russia out, as some might imagine». In another interview, he said that Russia has been supplying weapons to the Syrian army for years and that it is Russian specialists who operate Syria’s power plants. Moreover, al-Sharaa noted that Russia has the second strongest military in the world, is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and can seriously help the new Syrian government. So why pick a fight with them when there is so much to be gained from cooperation?
In other words, the new administration is demonstrating absolute pragmatism, constantly emphasizing that Syrians need Russia and that one cannot build the future by dwelling on the past. It seems that the visit to Syria by the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Special Representative for the Middle East, Mikhail Bogdanov, was more of an introductory and «setup» visit, so that the parties could outline their positions in the new geopolitical situation.
After the meeting in Damascus, Bogdanov stated that the agreements on the Russian military presence «require further negotiations». When asked about the future of the Russian military bases, he replied: «For now, nothing will change. We have agreed to continue more in-depth consultations on all aspects of our cooperation». In other words, the continuation will come in future episodes.
It is clear that the main issue in the negotiations is the preservation of the Soviet-era naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean and the Khmeimim airbase near Latakia as a transit point for activities in Africa. Russia immediately proposed using Tartus and Khmeimim to deliver humanitarian aid to Syrians. And al-Sharaa’s government did not categorically reject this proposal.
Similarly, al-Sharaa is trying to establish relations with the Americans by meeting with a high-level delegation from the State Department. To legitimize himself, he needs the support of all the countries that determine world politics. Naturally, European officials have also visited Damascus, promising the lifting of sanctions and demanding the exclusion of Moscow’s presence in Syria. But it is unlikely that they will achieve this, because al-Sharaa is trying to use the contradictions between all the powers to obtain concrete benefits for his government. Therefore, the question of a complete Russian withdrawal from Syria seems to be off the table. It will only be a matter of negotiating the price. In this series, the finale is still far away.
Moreover, the Syrians understand that if they demand Russia’s withdrawal, Moscow has backup options for using bases in the Mediterranean, such as in Libya. So if Damascus goes too far with its demands, Russia can simply move, but then al-Sharaa would lose the Kremlin’s support. I am sure he is taking this into account in his negotiations with Moscow.
In an interview with the Washington Post, Syria’s new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Kassra, when asked whether Moscow could keep its military bases on Syrian territory, replied: «If it serves the interests of the country. If we get benefits from it for Syria, then yes». According to him, the attitude of the Russian authorities towards the new Syrian government has «significantly improved» and therefore the new Syrian leadership is ready to consider Moscow’s demands. And when he was asked how this could be, given that the Kremlin was an ally of Assad in his fight against the rebels, the minister replied quite reasonably: «There are no permanent enemies in politics». A very encouraging answer.
It is quite clear that Damascus will not immediately decide on the issue of bases; it is very much in its interest to delay the issue while it receives assistance, including from Russia.
Moreover, Syria remains a fragmented country, a significant part of which is controlled by the Kurds, who are supported by the Americans; in the Latakia area, power is in the hands of the Alawites; in addition, there are strong pro-Turkish militias, and the Israelis, who have taken control of the Golan Heights, are stationed not far from Damascus. I do not think that the new Syrian transitional government, given all this, would want to come into conflict with Russia, which has serious levers of influence in the country. Therefore, it is better for Damascus to have Russia as a partner rather than an enemy. By exploiting the contradictions between the US, Russia, Turkey, and the European Union, the Syrian government will try to gain advantages from each side.
According to Syrian officials, Damascus has already canceled a contract with a Russian company for the operation of the commercial part of the port of Tartus. But this is a way of putting pressure on the Russian side and demonstrating the determination of the Syrian negotiators. Similarly, the Syrian Defense Minister is trying to put pressure on Turkey by declaring that new military agreements with Ankara are needed, which would entail a reduction or «redistribution» of Turkish troops in the country.
Damascus is also trying to build new relations with the US, which sent troops to Syria in 2015 to fight the Islamic State (a terrorist organization outlawed in Russia), by supporting the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. Whether the Americans will remain there is a big question, since President Trump has already declared that the Americans will leave Syria. But, as they say, promising is not the same as marrying. Meanwhile, the new government is trying to take control of areas currently held by the Kurds — which make up no less than a quarter of Syria. Damascus has already rejected the proposal of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to merge with the Ministry of Defense as a unified bloc. At the same time, Ankara is demanding that the Syrians deal with the Kurds, whom the Turks regard as enemies and with whom they regularly clash. But here the Turks are confronted with Israel. The Israeli Foreign Ministry has openly stated, «It is important to ensure the protection of minorities in Syria: Kurds, Druze and Christians, as well as Alawites», showing that it will not allow a situation to develop in Syria that could endanger Tel Aviv.
The news that, during negotiations, al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the creation of Turkish airbases on Syrian territory has alarmed Israel. The newspaper Türkiye reported that Turkey may build two military bases in Syria, stationing some 50 F-16 fighter jets. The article notes that the new Syrian authorities need Turkey’s support to fight drug trafficking, Hezbollah and Israel. However, it is clear that Israel will not sit idly by while Turkish fighter jets are positioned on its doorstep, effectively closing off the Syrian skies.
In a situation where the US, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Israel are all vying for influence in Syria, the new government in Damascus has no reason to support just one power by clashing with Russia and insisting on its withdrawal. On the contrary, by exploiting the contradictions between the major players, Damascus is interested (as a counterweight) in strengthening its ties with Moscow. Consequently, in the next episode of this Syrian saga, the issue of Russian military bases seems to be quite solvable.