In Colombia, Trotskyist-Maoist guerrillas are fighting Marxist-Leninist guerrillas, and together they are confronting American imperialists and their cronies for control of the cocaine plantations
On January 16, a Colombian guerrilla group known as the National Liberation Army (ELN-Spanish: Ejército de Liberación Nacional) launched an offensive in the Catatumbo region on Colombia’s northern border with Venezuela against Frente-33 guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-Spanish: Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia).
Violence spread throughout most of the Catatumbo region. ELN fighters entered several villages and, following a list, went from house to house executing those who refused to continue the «revolutionary struggle».
Government forces were delayed. Tanks, helicopters, drones, snipers and special forces in helmets and bulletproof vests, along with tense radio communications with «armed to the teeth» guerrillas — it all looked like a Hollywood action movie. In reality, however, the situation was much more mundane. Colombian security forces arrived a few weeks late, and clashes between the two guerrilla groups over territorial control resulted in the deaths of 80 civilians caught in the crossfire. According to the ombudsman’s office, 52,000 people (17% of the region’s 300,000 inhabitants) were evacuated to safe areas, while 32,000 remained in the crossfire as the guerrillas retreated to the mountains, where fighting continues.
Colombia is facing its worst humanitarian crisis in decades, forcing Gustavo Petro to declare a state of emergency. But neither he nor his predecessors have been able to deal with the reality of the drug trade, which involves all sides — the far right and the far left, the government and its security forces, the drug mafia, and even the farmers for whom growing the unpretentious shrub is more profitable than other, more demanding crops.
Thanks to the United States, Colombia has remained for a century the base of the global «Triangle» of cocaine producers — Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. The latter two used to grow and produce coca paste (which Colombia then processed into cocaine), although they now produce cocaine themselves. Throughout the «Triangle», local mafias and revolutionary «liberation» movements were involved, as were local security forces and U.S. intelligence agencies. The latter, incidentally, played a major role in transforming the leftist guerrillas from exporters of revolution to exporters of cocaine, and the U.S. from drug warriors to major consumers.
When former guerrilla Gustavo Petro won a surprise victory in Colombia, voters hoped for an end to the war between the government and the rebels. Petro called his strategy «Universal Peace». He wanted to put an end to a 60-year internal conflict that had claimed more than 450,000 lives. But he soon capitulated, declaring that the leftists «have no desire for peace».
The ELN in Colombia, as in other countries of the Western Hemisphere, emerged as a Marxist guerrilla movement in the 1960s following the Cuban Revolution. However, it is important to note the difference between Fidel Castro’s insurgency in Cuba and the «guerrilla revolutionary forces» in Central and South America. Fidel never fought against the civilian population, which cannot be said of the guerrilla movements in Latin America — and this is one reason for their defeat. This situation allows the U.S. and its allies to view the ELN and other insurgent movements as classic criminal organizations, primarily focused on controlling illegal cocaine markets, extortion, and the illegal extraction of natural resources. The war against them has always been about the division of «narco-power».
Thus, Gustavo Petro’s «Universal Peace» strategy was supposed to end hostilities between armed groups and integrate them into society. It has not succeeded. The program enjoys little public support, while cocaine production in Colombia remains high. According to the UN, coca cultivation and cocaine production increased by 53% during Petro’s administration.
The increase in cocaine production in 2024 brought an additional $25 billion in revenue to transnational crime, which in turn spurred higher levels of criminal development and deeper penetration into state structures. In Colombia alone, cocaine production increased by 1,000 metric tons, resulting in an increase in supply valued at $66.6 billion at a wholesale price of $25,000 per kilogram, up from $43.5 billion the previous year.
The guerrilla offensive mentioned at the beginning is linked to the fact that the coca market in Catatumbo has become one of the most profitable in Colombia. Although synthetic drugs have become the main «headache», cocaine remains the primary catalyst for crime in Latin America.
Moreover, in the New World, Bolivia and Peru have become the major producers of cocaine (not to be confused with coca leaf), and industrial coca plantations have emerged in Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, and Venezuela. Analysts call this «the greatest cocaine boom» in history.
And the number of guerrillas has not diminished. If the ELN operated in 96 municipalities in 2016, it is now active in more than 230 — almost a quarter of Colombia’s territory — with around 6,000 fighters, making it one of the country’s most important armed groups. Nearly 300,000 soldiers of the Colombian army are unable to cope with them.
What can the US presidential administration do in such a situation? Nothing. It can only pass the buck to the Colombian government and remain on the sidelines — for now. Guerrilla activities can serve as a pretext for America’s primary goal: to discredit Petro’s leftist government in Colombia and to overthrow Maduro’s government in Venezuela. The U.S. will always find a pretext.
But cocaine is not the only thriving illicit economy in the region. Record-high gold prices are fueling illegal mining in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Peru, destroying waterways that feed the Amazon and leaving behind mercury-poisoned, moon-like landscapes.
In 2025, as criminal groups secure record revenues and resources from illicit activities, the political landscape in Colombia in particular — and throughout South America as a whole — is expected to change. Illegal groups, both left and right, will find common ground and become a real political force within the state. More and more territory in the region is expected to fall under criminal control, where these groups will take over many state functions, including providing security, administering justice, establishing social norms, and collecting «taxes». A little Haiti is not far away.
Tired of the inaction of Latin American governments, the people will turn to gangsters — both right-wing and left-wing — who, by merging their forces, will establish new order.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has already asked ministers and other high-ranking officials to leave their posts. The process is underway.