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The U.S. president asserts himself as a grandmaster capable of handling multiple chessboards simultaneously. This bold claim reflects the combative spirit of an ambitious politician who is always on the front lines. Trump continues to conjure up the image of an ancient Roman emperor “destined for glory,” rising from a band of former gladiators — but with some subtle complexities
Not surprisingly, Trump devoted most of his hour-and-a-half address to both chambers of Congress to domestic issues. He vowed to restore the potential of the real economy by bringing back capital and manufacturing capacity that had left the country. In this context, he plans to strengthen the federal budget by imposing tariffs on imported goods. Ultimately, he promises Americans a «golden age» — a promise that sounds as appealing as it is ambitious.
However, Trump’s plans are hampered by the United States’ enormous national debt, which stood at over $36.2 trillion in January 2025. This, along with a federal budget deficit that reached $1.9 trillion in the current fiscal year, casts a long shadow over the promised bright future. The deficit is being financed by borrowing. Moreover, in addition to the government’s debt to itself, there is private debt of $28.9 trillion — roughly 100% of GDP.
By any measure, regardless of the hopes pinned on the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency or the Federal Reserve’s printing presses, the United States is in fact a bankrupt nation.
There are regular reports of accidents on chronically worn railroad tracks, bridge collapses, and aging water and power systems in need of replacement. It is time for a major overhaul.
Business and consumer sentiment is deteriorating, especially among those who voted for Trump, confident that the 78-year-old brash businessman would put the economy on the right track. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, in particular, has issued a dire warning. In his view, America under Trump will be on the verge of an «economic heart attack» in the next three years if the budget deficit is not reduced. According to Dalio — a man who knows how money is made — printing dollars is no longer a viable solution.
A forecasting model developed by experts at the financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows that the probability of an economic downturn has risen from 17% at the end of November 2024 to 31%. Bloomberg reports that «key indicators such as five-year Treasury notes and the fluctuation in base metal prices point to an even higher probability of an economic slowdown». The gloomiest forecast puts the odds of a recession at 50%.
One reason for the business pessimism, Bloomberg reported on March 5, is Trump’s obsessive use of tariff pressure on trading partners — even though the president acknowledged in his speech to lawmakers that it could cause «discomfort».
This admission is significant. In theory, imposing tariffs on foreign exports should prompt foreign companies to move production to the United States-a move Trump is banking on. As he pompously declared from the podium, «I’ve imposed a 25 percent tariff on aluminum, copper, and steel. Tariffs not only protect American jobs, they protect the soul of our country».
The reference to the preservation of the mysterious American soul was, of course, in keeping with the long tradition of U.S. politicians expressing themselves in ornate ways, full of lofty abstractions. But as everyone knows, an economy doesn’t run on sweet words alone.
Something has already gone wrong. In theory, when import tariffs block foreign goods from entering the U.S. market, the dollar should strengthen as a «safe haven» currency. Instead, the opposite is happening — the dollar is losing ground in international financial markets. Now, the left-leaning British newspaper The Guardian poses a troubling question to our transatlantic cousins: Could the «greenback» lose its status as the world’s reserve currency?
For Trump, the calculations justifying his actions are clear: tariffs could potentially replenish the treasury by more than $100 billion a year — thereby reducing the federal budget deficit, which is caused by expenditures exceeding revenues.
In the short term, the Tariff Man and his team must recognize that any action will be met with resistance. «If war is what the United States wants — be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war — we are prepared to fight to the end». Such verbal diplomatic maneuvering, clearly coordinated with Beijing, prompted the Chinese Embassy in Washington to issue a statement shortly after assessing the threat of Trump’s continued tariff aggression, including measures against the Middle Kingdom.
In the coming months, former IMF analyst and current Atlantic Council expert John Lipsky (considered undesirable in Russia) believes that the United States is facing a «global trade war».
Experts doubt that high protective tariffs alone will be sufficient both to induce foreign companies to move production to U.S. soil and to stimulate the growth of domestic companies in sectors where the country is lagging-such as microchip and laptop production-or in industries with low profitability that cannot compete with cheap Chinese consumer goods.
According to Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT), «The catastrophic level of the American national debt and budget deficit demands urgent measures from the current administration — but the chosen strategy of a ‘counterfire’ may not resolve the U.S. economic crises and may even exacerbate them».
On the foreign policy front, where his old-fashioned imperialist course of «might makes right» has yet to win him any significant accolades (apart from the temporary suppression of Hamas by the Israeli military machine), Trump is trying to make up for his lack of successes with shrewd maneuvers to coerce obedience from neighboring countries (Canada and Mexico), turn overly indulgent transatlantic allies in the European Union and Britain into mere suppliers of raw materials, and, in the medium term, neutralize Iran and China.
Again, there are nuances. Success in asserting American hegemony within the Western coalition and intimidating the nations of the Global South is only possible if the United States can secure a robust rearguard. Plans for a resurgent Trumpian America — to reestablish itself both as a prosperous nation worthy of emulation and as a formidable superpower imposing its own rules on the global stage — are significantly hampered by the heavy burdens of national debt and a ballooning budget deficit. Ambitions are achievable, but only if there is sufficient ammunition — and that is in short supply. There are growing doubts that the imposition of tariffs will protect and save the «soul of America», as Trump promised.