Eduardo Santillán / Presidencia de la República
The pro-American right-wing camp in South America has gained a new ally — Ecuador’s incumbent President Daniel Noboa has won the election
It’s no coincidence that just before the vote, Daniel Noboa rushed to Florida, where he almost kissed the hands of U.S. President Donald Trump. And just two weeks later — against all odds — he was declared the winner of Ecuador’s presidential election. What role Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio played in this unexpected and tense race, and how their operatives managed to turn Noboa’s expected defeat into a victory, may remain a «little secret» of the American administration — at least until someone in Washington lets it slip.
There is no doubt that Daniel Noboa is the ideal candidate for Washington. He was one of the few Latin American leaders — along with Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) and Javier Milei (Argentina) — invited to Trump’s inauguration.
But back to the Ecuadorian election. Two candidates — incumbent President Daniel Noboa Azin, representing the right-wing National Democratic Action, and Luisa González Alcívar, from the center-left Citizens’ Revolution Movement — faced off again in the final round of the presidential race, just as they did in 2023 and February 2025.
In the second round, 80% of the 13.7 million eligible voters cast their ballots. Some 92,000 representatives of political movements and international observers were authorized to monitor the election. Some 100,000 military and police personnel were deployed nationwide to provide security, and the pro-American right-wing camp in South America gained a new ally — Ecuador’s incumbent President Daniel Noboa won the election.
A day before the vote, Noboa — who remains in office in violation of Ecuadorian law — declared a state of emergency in seven provinces, most of them strongholds of his rival, González.
«Declaring a state of emergency during an electoral process because of alleged serious internal unrest is highly questionable», said Mauricio Alarcón, director of Transparency International’s Ecuador office. He added that the decision should be reviewed by the Constitutional Court.
Nevertheless, the use of administrative resources worked. According to official figures, with more than 97% of the ballots counted, Noboa had 56% of the vote to González’s 44% — a margin of more than a million votes. The result surprised many, especially since in the first round in February, Noboa received 44.17% and González 44%, with a difference of only 16,746 votes.
Election observers are now asking: is such a surge possible in just two months of campaigning? Especially since all the polls during this period showed González in the lead.
Diana Atamaint, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), declared at a press conference — with more than 90% of the ballots counted — that «the trend in favor of Noboa is irreversible» and that he would be declared the winner.
Opposition candidate Luisa González refused to concede and demanded a recount. «Let me be absolutely clear: the ‘Citizen Revolution’ has always accepted defeat in previous elections when supported by polls, monitoring and statistics», González said. «Today we do not accept these results».
She must now present evidence of violations for the electoral commission to consider a recount. But her chances of overturning the results are slim.
Noboa will now face a National Assembly in which his party is only one vote behind González’s supporters. The gap is expected to widen as deputies from Ecuador’s indigenous federation throw their support behind her, complicating the passage of legislation proposed by the ruling party.
Ironically, Daniel’s mother, Annabella Azin, won a legislative seat with more votes than any other candidate and could become president of the National Assembly. Anything is possible in a banana republic.
«Ecuador is changing», Noboa said after his victory. The question is, in what direction?
Over the past five years, Ecuador has seen a sharp rise in murders, arms smuggling, fuel theft, extortion, and other crimes linked to local gangs, Mexican cartels, and the Albanian mafia. Meanwhile, the economy has not recovered from the pandemic, and unemployment continues to rise.
Despite their opposing political views, both candidates paid little attention to concrete economic reforms during the campaign. Instead, they promised to crack down on crime, better equip law enforcement, and seek international help in the fight against cartels and local criminal groups.
The difference is in their approach: Noboa relies on foreign — mostly American — military aid, while González advocates solving the problems independently. Paradoxically, most Ecuadorians, disillusioned with the government’s ability to restore order, seem open to foreign intervention. And Noboa, a dual citizen of Ecuador and the United States, seems to have struck the right chord with them.
The population doesn’t look far beyond the immediate crisis. The apparent loss of sovereignty and increasing dependence on Washington’s political, economic, and military interests do not currently concern citizens.
Employment, however, is another matter. According to Ecuador’s National Institute of Statistics and Census, only 33.7% of the working-age population had a formal job at the beginning of this year.
Noboa, a free-market advocate, promised to create one million jobs in four years by offering incentives to hire young people and reforming the education system to improve job prospects. González promised to create two million jobs through a strategy of increased public spending on infrastructure.
These promises are unrealistic. According to IMF forecasts, Ecuador’s economy will grow just 1.2 percent this year — the slowest rate in South America. Even this modest growth will be threatened if reservoir levels don’t improve, which could lead to another long dry season. Ecuador relies on hydropower for about 70% of its electricity; dwindling reserves have already led to blackouts of up to 14 hours a day.
Ecuador’s economy is one of the weakest in South America. It contracted by 0.7% last year, according to the World Bank. Real GDP growth was less than 0.4% in 2024, and projections for this year show no significant improvement. The IMF concludes that President Noboa will now have to govern an economy «on the verge of collapse».
Throughout Noboa’s first term, it became clear that despite full U.S. support, his administration failed to solve problems in the economy, public safety, human rights, and social welfare. The government is expected to follow the IMF’s directives and align itself with Trump’s aggressive Latin American policy.
January 2025 was the bloodiest month in Ecuador’s recent history: 781 people were killed. That level of violence has persisted ever since.
«Noboa is clearly playing the Trump card when it comes to Ecuador», says Risa Grais-Targow, director of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. But the experience of neighboring cocaine-producing countries such as Colombia and Peru suggests that this North American card has been played. Pentagon has failed to eliminate the drug cartels, and in its strategic competition with China, the United States is primarily seeking a military foothold along Ecuador’s Pacific coast — something Noboa seems willing to facilitate, even at the expense of national interests.