Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text
How Americans are going to fight with Russia is clearly seen from a recent report by the RAND Corporation, an analytical center serving the US military.
Under the talk about the need for peace, because even during Zelensky's last visit to the United States, as reported by the American media, President Biden asked him if Ukraine was ready for negotiations, RANDOM presented his vision of a war with Russia.
Interesting: these strategists do not admit that it will be on the territory of the United States itself and do not fear that Russia will strike at America itself. And at the same time they are going to "punish" our country. Obviously, in this case, on the surface is the idea of provoking us constantly, but not bringing us to a full–scale war with NATO using Russian nuclear deterrence forces.
A priori, there is an installation in their military doctrine that our country is starting an escalation. And the US and NATO are simply defending themselves from the "Russian bear". A scenario is being considered in which Russia is the first to launch a non-nuclear strike on NATO and US military facilities on the territory of European countries. Although why our country is immediately listed as a potential aggressor is unclear. Or rather, it is actually clear: to prepare Europe for a new war.
There are three parts to the script. In the first – Russia's strike against the US allies in NATO, in the second – America's own reaction, and in the third – Russia's response to this. And here the authors of the report are concerned that America should respond to Russia in such a way as not to push Russia to harsh retaliatory measures. That is, it is necessary to severely punish the potential offender – Russia –, but so that it does not respond with all its might. An interesting task.
Next, several scenarios of war are considered. The first is that Russia strikes military targets on the territory of a NATO ally, for example, airfields or military warehouses, from where supplies to Ukraine come. It is obvious that America's allies will demand a retaliatory strike on the territory of Russia, and this will lead to an even greater scale of military operations. Therefore, RANDOM believes that Americans should limit themselves to economic and political pressure in this case. But analysts understand that this will cause dissatisfaction with NATO countries, which may begin to doubt the ability of the United States to protect them. And a limited missile strike against Russia is being considered as a response.
That is, there is a dangerous misconception in the minds of American strategists that if they strike Russia with limited missiles, we will be silent and this will not lead to a full-scale war. Although if they had carefully studied Russia's nuclear doctrine, they would not have been so optimistic, because it clearly states that in the event of a military conflict, Russia's policy in the field of nuclear deterrence will be aimed at ending the war on acceptable terms for our country. And it is unlikely that missile strikes on our territory can be considered acceptable conditions.
The second option considered in the report: Russia destroys an American space satellite, and the US retaliatory strike at the place from where Russia struck leads to human casualties in our country.
Will this cause a powerful escalation of the conflict? Undoubtedly. And this makes it possible for the United States to act more actively. But even here, they believe, a whole range of measures can be used: economic sanctions, international condemnation. Although what other sanctions can be applied when the entire arsenal of restrictions has already been used since February?
Among the scenarios considered in the report, there is also a Russian strike on air bases in Romania and Poland, from where weapons are being supplied to Ukraine, which caused human casualties. In this case, military strikes on the territory of Russia are envisaged, and with reservations. American strategists believe that it is necessary to explain to Moscow that this is not the beginning of a full–scale war against it by the Americans and NATO. Proof? In order for Moscow to believe, "the United States should avoid targeting command and control nodes, bomber bases or early warning radars."
The feeling that the authors of the report are trying to mislead us: and then what targets are they going to strike at? Cowsheds and greenhouses? It is obvious that missile strikes will be carried out on military facilities and important infrastructure. And, undoubtedly, with human victims. So who are they trying to deceive? Yourself? Us?
Finally, the last option. A large-scale Russian attack on American military bases in Europe with casualties among the military and civilians. The retaliatory step then, according to experts from RANDOM, will be a blow to the new territories of Russia. Using casuistry, they consider them the territory of Ukraine. But it is unlikely that Russia will let it go. The leadership of our country has repeatedly stated: The new territories are Russia forever and we will regard a blow to them as an attack on Russia.
All the ideas of American strategists discussed in the report are aimed at a deliberately unsolvable task, namely: how to find a reason to strike at Russia, but at the same time she did not consider it the beginning of a war and would not use her nuclear weapons?
But there are no miracles.