Photo: © AP Photo / Eraldo Peres

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text

The other day it was hot in the capital of Brazil. And you can't call it a political carnival. Was it a spontaneous occurrence, a rehearsal, or a warning?

Just a week after the election of President Lulu da Silva, thousands of supporters of far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro seized the presidential palace, the buildings of the National Congress and the Supreme Court. All this was accompanied by looting and pogroms. And the new government underestimated the strength of the protesters, the police were clearly not enough. It was a full-fledged coup attempt. Everyone is already comparing the events in Brasilia with an attempt by Trump supporters to seize the Capitol. In both capitals there were clashes with the police, looting and looting in the occupied buildings.

But the analogy suggests itself not only with the seizure of the Senate, but also the Ukrainian Maidan, where a coup d'etat and another "color" revolution took place with the help of the West and the United States. The methodology was the same everywhere: accusing the current government of corruption and that the elections were rigged. And then, as always, social networks are connected, unknown organizers allocate buses, products and everything without which the so-called "spontaneous performances of ordinary people" are impossible to the "rebellious people".

It was the same in Brazil. There, according to a tried-and-tested scenario, calls appeared on social networks to take to the streets, accusations of corruption against Lulu, calls not to recognize the election results. By the way, there were also free buses that brought demonstrators to the main square.

As in the States, Bolsonaro's supporters refused to admit defeat in the elections. Interestingly, the ex-president, who verbally condemned the riots, was in the USA at that time, in Orlando. And this, of course, is a "coincidence".

What an interesting pattern: every contender for power who did not receive it democratically, for some reason, during the riots turns out to be in the States. How can we not remember Venezuela and the self-proclaimed President Guaido?

Naturally, Washington also disavowed the coup attempts. "The United States condemns any attempts to undermine democracy in Brazil," US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan tweeted (banned in Russia). – President Biden is closely monitoring the situation, and we are unwavering in our support for Brazil's democratic institutions. Violence cannot destroy Brazil's democracy."

But then the question arises: why was Bolsonara sheltered in Florida, who did not directly, but urged his supporters not to recognize Lula's victory? The methods of the States are known, and if there was a serious concern about the unrest in Brasilia, the losing president would have been "prompted" how to calm down or provoke his supporters.

For the similarity of views with the former US president, Bolsonara is called the "Latin American Trump." He took over the country in 2019 and is known for extreme right-wing views, support for military dictatorship, anti-feminism and LGBT, covid-dissidence. Observers see the seizures of buildings and pogroms committed in Brazil as manifestations of "Trumpism".

But the main question remains: how did it happen that the power structures did not pay attention to the signals that went through social networks and indicated an increase in the degree of mood of the supporters of the losing president?

Last year, the highways were already blocked, but they did not achieve their goal. It feels like it was a gesture of desperation. Moreover, the seizures of administrative buildings and pogroms in them occurred not at the time of summing up, not at the time of the inauguration, but after it. Moreover, it has already been stated that federal forces will be involved to suppress such demonstrations.

The main victim here is former President Bolsonaro, because it will be difficult for him if he suddenly decides to go to the polls. He himself is hardly behind the direct organization of events. But it seems that he was aware that something like this could happen. And so he left the country. So that the bribes were smooth, and other people conducted the organization of unrest.

In light of these events, one cannot help but wonder who is more sympathetic to Russia: the newly elected President Lula or the election loser Bolsonaro?

Here the calculation is simple. Lula is left–wing, and Bolsonaro is far-right. The leftists in Latin America have always had sympathy for Russia, which became the world's first socialist state. In addition, the left is always critical of the United States, which fought the Socialists throughout Latin America, not excluding Brazil, where they still remember Operation Car Wash – it was carried out by the CIA, defeating the left forces.

Lulu himself was sent to prison on a far-fetched corruption charge and failed to win the last election. But during his reign, Lulu was an ardent supporter of BRICS and maintained good relations with Russia.

So far, there is no reason to assume that serious political upheavals await Brazil. The political leaders of neighboring countries demonstrate a rare unanimity: everyone is against the protests, everyone supports the elected head of state.

And, although at first there was a rare inaction of the Brazilian law enforcement forces, who complacently contemplated, or even accompanied the columns of the discontented, in the end the system showed that it works quite well and allows you to cope with the aggressively minded masses.

However, questions remain. And between the three possible answers – it was an impromptu, a rehearsal or a warning to Luna da Silva – the choice is difficult: I don't really believe in the spontaneity of the protest movement. The US obsession with constant interference in the affairs of other countries, the use of modern technologies to adjust the election results to American ideas about how other countries should live, make the spontaneity of certain dramatic events unlikely. In an interview with TASS, Leonardo Paz Neves, a political scientist from the expert-analytical center "The Jetuliu Vargas Foundation" (FGV), did not rule out that the Brazilian and American riots may have the same inspirers.

Although for American Democrats, any negative mention of Trump supporters, and Bolsonaro belongs to them, is a big plus. Therefore, they are now even demanding the extradition of the losing Brazilian from the United States.

Lula da Silva must draw the right conclusions. At least that democracy should be able to defend itself.

By the way, scolding opponents, he made a mistake out of excitement and called them Stalinists. I corrected myself: I meant fascists. But the main thing is that the president of Brazil does not make mistakes further and does not allow the development of events according to the American scenario. The one that led to the witch hunt and the split of the country after January 6.