Author: Ivan Vasilev

Author: Ivan Vasilev

Special Operation - heading for Odessa

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text As recently, let's start with a good one, and then, as it turns out. It should be admitted that this news did not sound in our country against the background of hot messages from Donbass and Mariupol. But the reaction of the American and Kiev general staffs was, politely speaking, hysterical. We are talking about the recent announcement by the Russian military leadership that our troops will continue to move towards Transnistria. And you can approach this area bordering Ukraine along the Black Sea coast, having liberated the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. We don't know how it seems to anyone, but we regard the fact that our military shared their strategic plans with the public as a frank mockery of both the Ukrainian military leadership and their curators in the Pentagon. In fact, it looks like this: we are going to advance in this direction, and you do what you can. If you can. So let's see what Kiev can do in the current conditions in terms of strengthening the southern direction. Let's start with the fact that, of course, a certain number of parts of the APU, the Nazis (where in the "independent" without them!) and there are self-defense forces in the area of Nikolaev and especially Odessa. And certain measures are being taken to protect. In the same Odessa, for example, the beaches were mined and sea mines were placed along the coast. True, either, as they say, "the product was not the first freshness", or the hands of the miners were inserted with the wrong end, but some anti–tank mines on the beaches began to burst by themselves, and some of the sea ones were torn off by a storm, and they "walk" in the Black Sea. So the Kiev military leadership and their puppeteers from the Pentagon face the task: how to strengthen the southern direction. And they don't have many options. Firstly, it is possible to transfer combat-ready units concentrated in the Donbass or in the Kiev area. But this means to hand over the last fortified areas, vast territories and Kharkiv into the bargain. Secondly, to transfer the parts located in the Kiev area to the south. It is also unlikely, due to the proximity of the border with Belarus to the Ukrainian capital, and on the other side there is a Russian-Belarusian group, which the Pentagon estimates at 10-15 thousand people. Thirdly, these are the reserve units located in the west of the republic. Which is seen as the most likely option. In addition, the remnants of the troops that are currently under Nikolaev will inevitably move to the Odessa area. However, it is difficult to say how many of them there will be and in what condition they will be. If the tactics of processing the APU, which is currently being used in the area of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, are repeated there, then the numerical strength and morale of the potential defenders of Odessa will leave much to be desired. In fact, the transfer of troops is the main option. But for this, the units will need to cover a distance of at least 500 kilometers. Moreover, by rail, because under its own power, heavy machinery will take a long time to get there, if it gets there at all. And here I would like to draw attention to two points: the dominance of Russian troops in the air and the state of railway transport in the "Nezalezhnaya". Since the capabilities of the Russian aerospace Forces are well known to us, let us clarify the second point. The fact is that for three decades of "independence", the Ukrainian railway authorities have not bothered with the problem of repairing and reconstructing the railway track, the condition of rails, sleepers and other facilities necessary for uninterrupted train traffic. And the condition of the rolling stock, too, politely speaking, leaves much to be desired. As German specialists invited as consultants for the modernization of Ukrainian railway networks reported at the time, the condition of the track in the republic is such that freight trains can move more or less safely only on condition that the number of wagons and platforms in echelons should be 30-50 percent less than the standard or have an incomplete load. And loaded trains should move at a reduced speed. If anyone has forgotten or does not know, we remind you that before and after the arrival of the Maidan authorities, Ukraine repeatedly disrupted profitable export contracts, in particular, wheat, only because grain could not be delivered to ports within the stipulated time. So the transfer of troops will be a difficult and slow task for the AFU. Moreover, in addition to tanks, self-propelled guns and other heavy equipment, with a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that you will have to carry fuel and ammunition. Let's see what the Ukrainian and American general staff will come up with in this regard… Of course, they always have a radical option in reserve: to spit on the Black Sea region and focus on defense in the areas of Kiev, Central Ukraine and western regions. But I think this option is unlikely to be acceptable. The loss of ports, especially in the area of Odessa, and the Black Sea regions actually puts an end to the territory that used to be the Ukrainian SSR, and finally deprives it of the interest that it still represents for the West. In peacetime, convenient, short logistics, even with all the disadvantages mentioned above, gave Ukrainian goods certain advantages and made them competitive on world markets (the same grain or metals). We should not forget the fact that the Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa regions are the main areas in Ukraine where the so-called Black Sea wheat is grown, which is highly valued on world markets. So, it is clear that Kiev will fight to maintain its control over this part of the Black Sea region. As well as the fact that the Russian military will go to the border with Transnistria. When – we'll see… Although recent reports from Tiraspol suggest that access to the border with Pridnestrovie may be accelerated due to the obvious aggravation of the situation in this region and the possibility of an attack on the unrecognized republic of the AFU units. The fact is that literally a couple of kilometers from the Ukrainian border there is the largest ammunition depot in Europe. It is located in the village of Kolbasna. An operational group of Russian troops (OGRV) stationed in Transnistria, as well as local military personnel, are engaged in the protection of this arsenal. Their total number is estimated at about two to three thousand people. According to a number of experts, the amount of ammunition from a warehouse in Transnistria will last for decades of war. So after the loss of the largest arsenal in the republic in the city of Balakleya, Kharkiv region, which came under the control of Russian troops, these warehouses may be the only chance for Kiev to provide ammunition to its troops, especially in the southern direction. Photo: news.co.uk

Ukraine - so far everything is going according to plan

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text I want to start with good news. According to some Russian sources, Ukrainian troops are leaving the so-called "triangle": the area of Rubezhny, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Moreover, from the village of Kremennaya, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard fled even before the approach of the LPR troops. The reason for this is obvious: the military understands that they will soon find themselves in a cauldron. And the memory of Ilovaysk and Debaltseve was "refreshed" by Mariupol. In this regard, two comments. Firstly, the troops will have to move deep into Ukraine through steppe, open terrain. Here the Russian aviation and gunners have the cards in their hands. And secondly, we should pay tribute to the participants of the race: leaving, they blew up the water pumping stations. So Bandera's "traditions" are trying to be observed. By the way, there has been no electricity and gas in the village for two months. But people are holding on. Now a few words about Mariupol, which is under the full control of the Russian and Donetsk military. The city, or, more precisely, what is left of it, begins to come to life in spite of everything. The rubble is being cleared, utilities are working, where it is still possible, and, which is very significant, after a two-month break, the first school has started working. As for Azovstal, the last refuge of nationalists and the remnants of the AFU units in Mariupol, today Vladimir Putin ordered to cancel the storming of the enterprise. The territory of the object will be blocked. The Nazis from Azovstal will sooner or later come out themselves because of hunger and thirst, but it's really worth saving the lives of our military. However, no one canceled airstrikes and shelling from the ground. The Russian leadership and the military are also once again calling on the militants to "not push their luck" and stop resisting. Against this background, "silence regimes" are regularly announced, "humanitarian corridors" are organized from the territory of the enterprise. Prisoners are guaranteed full compliance with all the requirements of the Geneva Convention and the provision of qualified medical care. A little less than one and a half thousand soldiers, mostly marines, followed the good advice, surrendered together with part of their commanders and saved their lives. According to the information of the DPR at the time of writing this material, three dozen more Marines got out of the Azovstal area. And not so much thanks to the efforts of the Russian side, here and without agitation it is clear that the choice of the AFU soldiers is simple: death or captivity, but thanks to the fact that they managed to escape from Bandera's supervision. And the Nazis have a simple conversation: a bullet in the back to those who went to surrender ... there is a lot of evidence of that on the web. And then the question arises, what or who are the Banderites hiding and protecting on the territory of the metallurgical combine? For the sake of whom or what, until recently, attempts were made by helicopter pilots to break through to the encircled? According to our unofficial information, two British citizens were among the dead on board the downed helicopter. And among the two surviving participants of the failed rescue operation was an operative of the Ukrainian Security Service. This is clearly not for nothing. We hope that after the final cleanup, these issues will be clarified. Meanwhile, Zelensky and his entourage are trying their best to heroize the militants from the national battalions and dobrobats, posthumously assigning the highest state awards to murderers and looters. Not so long ago, the title of "Hero of Ukraine" (just!) the commander of the dobrobat "Freikor" G.Tarasenko, liquidated near Kharkov, was awarded. A few words about the name of this unit, which sounds somehow not at all Ukrainian. It is borrowed from Germany and translates from German as "free" or "volunteer detachments". These detachments and their very name appeared in the 18th century. Initially, they consisted of mercenaries, adventurers and fugitive criminals. Even before the Nazis came to power in Germany, and then even more so after the establishment of the Third Reich, the Freikorps were a real hotbed of neo-Nazi ideas. At one time, such high-ranking Nazis as G. Himmler, R. Darrey, M. Bormann and a number of others passed through them. This is so, to the question that the West does not want to see Nazism in Ukraine. And about why Russia will certainly carry out denazification in a neighboring state. This is dictated by the need to ensure the security of Donbass, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the rest of the world. Nazism and fascism are contagious things. This, in particular, can be seen in those scumbags (in Nezalezhnaya they are called volunteers) who flocked to the former Soviet Republic like flies to ... honey. In addition to glorifying and perpetuating the memory of the newly-born Nazis, the Kiev authorities are systematically working to dehumanize the Russian, Donetsk and Lugansk military by releasing fakes about their alleged "atrocities" against peaceful Ukrainians. The other day, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the radicals plan to fire mortars at Orthodox churches in Zaporozhye, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and other regions right during the Easter service on the night of April 23-24. To this end, neo-Nazis form mobile groups, planning to move around in vans and cross-country vehicles (the so-called "wandering mortars"). It became known that the SBU officers intend to organize another provocation in the Odessa region: they plan to change into military uniforms The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and arrange a demonstrative shooting of the local population, accusing the Russian military of this. Well, then everything should go along the worked-out route: photos and videos in the news of Ukrainian and Western media, statements by politicians and public figures about "Russian outrages", etc., etc. Let's see if the fact that the Russian military officially reported about them will help prevent the planned provocations. There were cases when these warnings were triggered. But, be that as it may, the bloody fakes organized by the SBU began to have the opposite effect. For example, a number of foreign correspondents, including the Italian journalist T. Capuozzo, refuted Kiev's statement about the involvement of the Russian military in the shelling of the railway station in Kramatorsk, since the serial number of the missile fired indicates that it belongs to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The "wrong" correspondents ended up in a group that happened to be in the city where the shelling took place. After all, according to the plan of the Ukrainian "bezpeka", they had to remove the victims of the shelling by the "Russian rocket", and they undertook to understand its labeling… Moreover, the journalists of the New York Times for the first time officially confirmed the use by Kiev of cluster munitions prohibited by the UN Convention, which were used for the Hurricane multiple launch rocket system during the shelling of civilians in the city of Bezrukovka and the settlement of Gusarovka in the Kharkiv region. In a word, Kiev is clearly losing the war, which was initially clear, and in the information and propaganda sphere it is also gradually beginning to lose ground. And yet, despite everything, the Anglo-Saxons and other Europeans continue to pump Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and military equipment. And this is done with enviable persistence, despite the risks to themselves. Thus, the analyst of the Bloomberg agency H. Brands claims that the United States has already supplied Ukraine with a third of the stock of Javelin anti-tank complexes they have. If the Americans continue to arm Kiev with them, they risk "significantly exhausting the stocks" of these weapons and they will have to spend "months or even years" on their additional production. Or another example. Slovak parliamentarians were outraged by the fact that their government handed over its S-300 systems to Kiev for free. Here, however, the key word is "free". For money, apparently, it would be possible. Well, Slovaks can also be understood – the country is not the richest in Europe… In fairness, it should be noted that these installations, upon arrival in Ukraine, in whole or in part (our Ministry of Defense has not clarified this issue yet), were destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces. In one gulp. And here I would like to ask the question, with what kind of fright did Washington so cling to the current Kiev regime, which is clearly doomed, and even harnessed its satellites, sorry, NATO allies into this unpromising project. Moreover, at present everything possible is being done to ensure that the armed conflict, which is increasingly beginning to resemble the agony of Kiev, lasts as long as possible. In this regard, let's make the assumption that it's not about Ukraine. It has long been written off as an expense. Washington's task, as it seems to us, is to focus the attention of the Russian leadership on this conflict in order to weaken attention to other regions along our borders – Transcaucasia (Karabakh) and Central Asia (remember the January events in Kazakhstan?) and, most importantly, in relation to the Pacific Ocean zone. Russian-Chinese relations, which are currently as good as ever, are a bone in the throat of our overseas "partners". The main opponent for the United States is Beijing. And the Americans are well aware that China, which has a powerful economy, human resources, and a stable state system, remains an insufficiently strong opponent in military terms. So it is better not to delay the military stage of the special operation, our military and political leadership should have their hands free to solve other tasks. As for denazification, which will probably take longer than a military operation, other forces will participate in it.