Where will Italy go after Draghi's resignation?
Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text So, it happened. After long and convulsive convulsions, traditional for Italian political life, Prime Minister Mario Draghi left his post, adding the prefix "ex" to his former honorary post of head of government. The real reasons for Draghi's fall from the Italian political Olympus were that the broad government coalition of "national unity", which had existed in the Apennines since 2021, was not so united as to maintain its efficiency in the conditions of modern political turbulence and numerous constant challenges, which required a prompt and verified reaction of the ministerial cabinet. In other words, the members of the coalition of allies and like-minded people suddenly became like the characters of Krylov's well-known fable about the swan, crayfish and pike, each of whom pulled the cart of Italian political life in his own direction. The formal reason was simple: one of the main parties of the ruling coalition, the 5-Star Movement, refused to participate in the vote on the issue of confidence in the government, which includes its members. Draghi reacted promptly, saying that he did not see his government without a "Movement". And he submitted his resignation to the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella. In principle, there is nothing sensational and unusual about the fact that another ruling coalition has collapsed in Italy and another prime minister has decided to leave his post, pulling the entire ministerial brigade with him. For the temperamental inhabitants of hot Italy, such "shocks" are a thing that has long been familiar and very ordinary, since politicians live their own lives, and ordinary people who periodically vote for them – their own. After all, over the past 75 years, Italian governments have resigned 70 times. But the resignation of Mario Draghi was in many ways an exception to this rule, because in the vacuum that arises after the departure of this formally non-partisan figure, some saw the possible emergence of new political figures who could, if not completely change, then at least significantly correct the course pursued by Mario Draghi. Draghi, who held the chair of the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) before his appointment as prime Minister, saw among his priorities the use of European funds to restore the economy, which had sunk considerably as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Real life, however, ordered differently and the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine put Draghi before the need to decide how Rome should react to this tough but necessary move by Moscow. Draghi did not think for long: on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis, the Italian prime minister took one of the toughest positions against the Russian Federation. It was during his premiership that Italy began to actively supply weapons to the Armed Forces. Moreover, these deliveries were increasing – if the first batch sent in March included night vision devices, machine guns and Italian copies of the German RPG "Panzerfaust", then the June batch of military "aid" included M-130 self-propelled guns, armored vehicles and howitzers. However, it was these deliveries, carried out with the full approval and almost at the initiative of the Prime Minister, that ultimately knocked out his prime minister's chair from under the soft spot of the Italian "hawk". The fact was that two parties belonging to the ruling coalition – the League and the 5–Star Movement - objected to the uncontrolled supply of weapons to Kiev and demanded that decisions on this sensitive issue be taken by parliament, not the government. By the way, the politicians of the "5 Star Movement" could not agree among themselves, which simply split under the weight of such an important issue. About 60 MPs left the party and one of its founders, Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, who quickly built his own association "Together for the Future". As a result, the 5-Star Movement has ceased to be the most representative party in the parliament. And in response, it skillfully turned the leg to the Prime Minister... Therefore, it was not surprising that after the decision to dismiss Draghi, a slight panic began in the ranks of the Italian right. What is the only statement by Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio that only Russia will benefit from the fall of the Italian government led by Mario Draghi and that "Draghi's head was brought to Putin on a silver platter." Some Italian politicians anxiously stated that after Draghi's resignation, Moscow was already raising glasses of champagne, hoping for a change in Rome's course regarding sanctions against the Russian Federation and the conflict in Ukraine. Bernardo de Miguel, a columnist for the influential Spanish newspaper Pais, summed up the fears of Draghi's followers and hardliners and warned that without Draghi, Italy could turn into a Russian "Trojan horse" in Europe. How real are these fears? Most likely, no serious changes in the current anti-Russian course of the Italian government, supported by part of the traditional elite, oriented towards an alliance with the United States and the European Union, should not be expected. After all, according to the decision of the president of the country, Mario Draghi is still fulfilling his prime minister's duties, and in the autumn - approximately in September – new parliamentary elections are expected in Italy. Their outcome for such a sophisticated politician as Silvio Berlusconi, who headed the Italian government four times between 1994 and 2011, does not cause much doubt. "In the current situation, it is important to hold elections as soon as possible. Their result will be a stable majority among the center–right," he predicts, adding that the main thing for the new cabinet is to preserve "the positive results achieved by the Draghi government." "Most likely, we will again have a prime minister approved by Washington, supported by President Sergio Mattarella, the European Union and NATO," the chairman of the International Institute for Global Analysis Vision & Global Trends told TASS Tiberio Graziani, commenting on the government crisis. The new prime minister, however, will not get a very pleasant legacy after Draghi – in the form of record inflation and high energy prices. Perhaps the EU colleagues will continue to insist on Italy reducing gas consumption by 15% - which Rome resolutely refused in July, thus joining the club of "refuseniks" consisting of Spain, Greece and Portugal. It is by autumn that experts predict an increase in social tension caused by these problems... Therefore, after the Draghi government went into oblivion, few people in the Apennines are particularly optimistic about the future of the new cabinet of his followers. And then the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, who published in his telegram channel a collage with a photo of Mario Draghi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his resignation a week earlier, will have a great opportunity to place on an unopened picture with a question mark, a photo of the next head of the next Italian government.