Author: Maksim Chikin

Author: Maksim Chikin

Far-right may take power in Italy

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text Early parliamentary elections in Italy are scheduled for September 25. After Mario Draghi's resignation, the chair of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers remains vacant and will be occupied – this is how the system works – by the head of the party who wins the parliamentary elections. Now, at the very beginning of the race, the leader, judging by the polls, is the party "Brothers of Italy". And their sister, George Meloni, will lead them to victory. "I am a woman, a mother, an Italian and a Christian, and no one will take that away from me," she repeats such a political mantra at her rallies. It would seem that if 70 offices have been replaced in Italy over the past 75 years, then it would be possible to skip this event. But, firstly, Meloni heads a party of the extreme right, which is considered post-fascist, and secondly, the Italian government has never been led by a woman. So about the post-fascists. They are everywhere in Europe. In France, their leader has already been in the second round of presidential elections for the umpteenth time, in Austria they have already been in power, in Greece, Golden Dawn felt comfortable in parliament. And nothing, only the name and an unpleasant train remained. Therefore, like Marine Le Pen at the time, Meloni began by ridding her party of the stereotypical image of people in breeches and boots. It is possible to call the "Brothers of Italy" fascists in principle, but even the European press prefers the term post-fascists. This movement was born on the ruins of the "Italian Social Movement", which in turn was created by Mussolini's followers. In addition, the movement's coat of arms – a torch of the colors of the Italian flag – resembles fascist logos. However, almost all of the extreme right in Europe have such. There is also a party newspaper that allows itself ambiguous statements. There are also fans of the Duce. But no one goes with torches. The Brothers are the only party not included in Draghi's coalition and have been in opposition since February 2021. Therefore, "whatever happened in Italy, any troubles and discontent, everything went to the benefit of the Brothers of Italy," says Marc Lazard, a historian and analyst at the French Institute of Syans Po. "That is why they have achieved significant success in local elections and now it is one of the leading political forces in the country." And that's true. Meloni managed to surround herself with highly respected politicians from the right flank, emphasized her roots – from the proletariat – plus a serious attitude to business, and she is also a strong-willed woman. The whole mix worked perfectly. The "brothers" won more in the local elections than they expected, and they counted on the southern regions. They also dealt a serious blow to the north, where the "League of the North" traditionally dominates, and took Palermo, which has been permanently left for 40 years, with battles. The sister herself "was an activist of the post-fascist party in her youth," says Piero Ignazzi, an honorary professor at the University of Bologna and a specialist in the right–wing movement. – But she built her program in such a way that there was a place for these ideas in it. Moreover, she managed to link them with conservative and neoliberal elements, for example, freedom of entrepreneurship or the ability to dismiss employees without conditions that are enslaving for the enterprise."  Meloni does not hide the coincidence of views with Viktor Orban, the Spanish nationalist movement Vox or the French National Association. She is even willingly compared to Marion Marechal-Le Pen, the granddaughter of the founder of the party. Relations with the American right are also established. That is, the basis of the program is economic liberalism, social conservatism, natalist policy: encouraging fertility, anti–Muslim, anti-Gypsy, anti-immigration orientation of domestic policy. Support for traditional right-wing values. The party wants to position itself as a guarantor of the traditions and national identity of Italians. They promise to open a free nursery, return a family allowance of 400 euros, not recognize same-sex marriages and the rights of the LGBT community. And the main thing is to finally stop letting Libyans into the country. This is a separate item. The "Brothers of Italy" have left the positions of Eurosceptics and do not demand an exit from the European Union and the eurozone, claiming that they are more inclined to the principle of "Europe of Nations". Of course, Draghi once bargained 200 billion euros from the European Union to restart Italy's economic engine. This manna is needed in order to avoid a recession, which can lead to an increase in inflation and in order to overcome the consequences of strong energy dependence on Russia. But Draghi knocked out this money for certain reforms. The European diplomat who handled this dossier believes that "if 70 percent of the promised reforms are not implemented by the end of 2022, Italy will lose tens of billions of euros." "Besides, it is not clear how things will be with the supply of weapons to Ukraine," continues French political analyst Marc Lazar. "The Brothers of Italy fully accepted the position of the West and condemned Russia. Berlusconi had a special relationship with Putin, Draghi nevertheless decided to participate in the supply of weapons. How will the "Brothers" behave? And the main thing is a right–centrist coalition." Truly. Italy's electoral system is built in such a way that the country can be governed by a coalition. "Now we are talking about a right-centrist coalition," says Mark Lazar, "these are Forza Italia, the Northern League and the Brothers of Italy. Together, they have the most chances to bypass the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, which will undoubtedly advance independently. The current right–wing coalition is a powerful electoral machine. But their differences will begin as soon as it comes to the specific leadership of the country." Meloni and her entourage believe that the elections are practically in their pocket. Now they have 24 percent, the Democrats have 22, the League is in third place with 14 percent. The "brothers" are counting on the disillusioned followers of Berlusconi and Salvini to join them, and a coalition with two right-wing parties is obvious, especially since Forza and the League have been finding a common language for a long time, and a strong new leader will only benefit them. At the same time, we recall that Meloni was not included in the coalition of the Draghi government. And there was already another nationalist party, Matteo Salvini's League. Will there be a "response" now? There are really strained competitive relations between them and so far neither one nor the other is ready for compromises. But now, specifically at the beginning of August, the advantage in the Meloni–Salvini battle is clearly on Meloni's side. The headlines of Italian newspapers are something like this: "A patriot who fights every day for what she believes in...". There is also an element of luck. The campaign turns out to be short – 2 months, and even then half will have to be on vacation, so it will be difficult to "smear public opinion in time" and then change it.

Generals of Eternal Career

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text The juntas of the countries of West Africa, it seems, are not going to leave Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso have suffered four coups in less than the last two years. The Community of West African States, ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African Countries), is scared, and for good reason, by the prospect that the example may be contagious. The organization is trying by all means to push the generals who have been sitting in their chairs to transfer power to democratic governments, without excluding coercive measures. As a rule, the military, coming to power, announced that they were here for a short time. Literally bring order to the country. Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya has been in charge of Guinea since September 2021. This amazing character was appointed by former President Conde as the commander of the Special Forces troops. To do this, he was called from abroad and given the rank of lieutenant colonel. And before that, he did not serve in the Guinean army at all, but history knows similar examples. Doumbouya received his education in France, in the Foreign Legion, then appeared in Israel, then in Senegal and Gabon. He is married to a Frenchwoman, the father of three children, for which he is called an "atypical military man." As usual in the region, he also overthrew the president of the country, Alpha Conde, who appointed him. First of all, he promised to return civil power to Guinea. To begin with, political figures and representatives of the country's civil society were invited to the conversation. A "Transitional Charter" was drawn up, the program of which includes the development of a new Constitution and the holding of "free, democratic and transparent elections." At the same time, none of the participants in the transition process – neither military nor civilian – has the right to stand for future elections at any level. No renegotiation is allowed. And then the previous president introduced an amendment that allowed him to run for a third term, which caused unrest in the country. The text mentions human rights countless times and promises that at least a third of women will be in all government bodies. And no "witch hunt". But until this reign of democracy has arrived, Colonel Dumbuya heads the National Reconciliation and Development Committee. He is also at the head of the National Council of the Transitional Period, this is the legislative body. He also appoints a civilian prime minister.  At the same time, the Charter does not say anything about, in fact, the duration of the transition period. It "will be determined as a result of an agreement between the living forces of the nation and the National Reconciliation and Development Committee," the text says. Then there was a clarification – the figure "three years" sounded semi-officially. But ECOWAS considered that it was probably a long time, but 24 months would be quite enough. And in this case, Guinea will be able to avoid such tough sanctions as were imposed against Mali, for example. Nothing is yet known about the current leader's further political ambitions. The Guineans themselves do not exactly support him, but rather hope that the promises will come true. The West expresses the same cautious wishes. But where this transition period will lead the country is not very clear. Oswald Panado, a political scientist and expert in the field of international relations, writes on the pages of the Young Africa magazine published in Paris: "The promises of the military, who are not prepared for the leadership of the state, are always broken on the rocks of harsh political realities." The situation in Burkina Faso is very similar. The local junta overthrew the acting president as a result of popular unrest, that is, at the request of the workers. Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who became the head of state, was specific: the transition period will last three years, the constitutional order will be restored in 2025. As long as I'm in power. The Transitional Charter, as in the case of Guinea, was worked out with the participation of parties, trade unions, representatives of civil society, youth, women and victims of jihadists. But how to conduct democratic elections? The peculiarity of this power is that even according to official statistics, 40 percent of its territory is not controlled by the state. Since 2015, Al-Qaeda and Islamic State groups have been operating in Burkina Faso*. The result is thousands of dead and almost 2 million refugees. By the way, the January coup itself was a protest against the inaction of the authorities, hence the "requests of the workers." But ECOWAS did not take into account these seemingly just popular demands. Burkina Faso's participation in the organization was suspended because the military came to power, and they, according to ECOWAS, are not always in a hurry to transfer power. Nevertheless, the organization agreed with the Charter's provision, which states that the Prime Minister will necessarily be a civilian, the transitional Government will consist of 25 ministers and neither the head of the Cabinet nor these ministers will be able to nominate their candidates for future authorities. After signing the Charter, negotiations between ECOWAS and the Burkinis began, and as a result, it was possible to reduce the transition period to two years, so theoretically it remains to wait until 2024. In Mali, one coup was not enough. No promises of change were believed here. The signed Settlement Agreement of 2021, exhausted by the political struggle and the lack of any guarantees for the security of the people, is at the stage of its last breath. The new government was supposed to weaken the role of the military in the leadership of the country. But it lasted only a few hours. The events unfolded like in a movie. The former prime minister managed to tell Agence France-Presse by phone: "I can confirm that Goita's people came to me to take me to his residence." At this point, the conversation was interrupted by short beeps, the prime minister is still in the camp, and Goita became vice-president for the transition period. And yet, recently, ECOWAS has managed to achieve some progress in negotiations with Bamako. Presidential elections will be held in 2024, that is, the initially announced five-year transition period is no longer relevant. It remains to convince the Malians that the head of state cannot be a military man. There are still disagreements here. Two characters who are considered "moderate" have been appointed to the new government, and to two key posts – the Ministries of Defense and Security. In other words, "fewer than others who participated in the 2020 coup." All this allowed ECOWAS to ease the financial and economic sanctions imposed against Mali. However, the military still make up the majority in the leadership at all levels. Mali is turning into a center of jihadism in West Africa, especially since the French have announced the end of their operation "Barkhan" and the withdrawal of their units. Even after the appearance of weak signs of at least some movement, Emmanuel Macron still prefers to keep his distance and refrain from comments. * Organizations banned in the Russian Federation

Johnson is stepping down as Conservative leader

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text Persuaded for two days. Since Wednesday evening, cars with ministers and high–ranking functionaries of the Conservative Party have been approaching the Prime Minister's London residence with one goal - to convince Boris Johnson to resign after a scandal that overflowed the scales that usually pulls down. How would they not pull the whole party with them! Even Nadim Zahavi came to persuade, who was appointed finance minister just a day before the events to replace Rishi Sunak, who resigned. And in just two days, almost 60 members of the government resigned. There is no mistake. There were–now–116 people in Johnson's office. Unlike, say, the French government, where there are 40 ministers and each is responsible for his own direction, in the British one it is always crowded. It's just that there are ministers of the first plan and there are a host of secretaries of state, their deputies and other high-ranking functionaries who are not on the front line, but are still formally members of the government. The reason for the resignation was not just another scandal that broke out at the beginning of the week with Christopher Pinscher, which we have already written about. He just held the same position of the second plan – he was responsible for the discipline of conservative deputies in parliament, but he himself violated it by walking around in the capital's "Carlton Club", where he let his hands loose against male colleagues, having, apparently, had too much single malt. Johnson stated that he did not know about such inclinations of a member of his government. But he was reminded: he had known since 2019. Which means he lied. The reason was the system. The gradual accumulation of scandalous situations, which each separately cost a vote of no confidence. Christmas fun at the official residence in Downing Street during the pandemic. Repairs in the same place with an off-scale price tag. A series of sexual scandals involving party comrades. Well, and relaxed gatherings without masks in the courtyard with wine, while compatriots had the right to one walk a day, and most importantly, when all pubs are closed! Shocking! As a result, I had to leave "the best job in the world," as Johnson himself stated. After resigning as Tory leader, he will leave the post of prime minister in the autumn. The leader of the ruling party auomatically becomes Prime Minister. It remains to choose a new leader. How will this happen? Only members of Parliament can be candidates. Each candidate must enlist the support of at least two deputies. Then the conservatives vote according to the playoff system, that is, against - through, and as a result there are two finalists. Then a leader is chosen by universal suffrage. This whole procedure will be delayed until the autumn and Boris Johnson will remain Prime minister during this time. Who is being read in Downing Street? Ben Wallace, 52, Secretary of Defense. He constantly evaded the question of whether he was capable of leading the party, and the party considers him a very competent politician. According to the polls of the YouGov sociological institute, which surveyed members of the Conservative Party, he will win the party elections by a large margin. Wallace did not resign on the general wave in the last days for the cabinet and supported Johnson. Penny Mordaunt, 49, Secretary of State for Foreign Trade. She has been an active participant in the campaign for leaving the EU since 2016. The first female Minister of Defense of the Kingdom, but when Johnson came to power, she left this post. A Royal Navy reservist, however. A wonderful speaker and very respected by fellow party members. According to a YouGov poll, he is in second place after Wallace among possible successors. Rishi Sunak, 42, Finance Minister, the first to resign after the publication of the "Pinscher case". Actually, he was considered the favorite, but some fiscal problems surfaced with his richest wife, and against the background of the fall in the purchasing power of the people, this, frankly speaking, is not a trump card. Sunak worked as an analyst at Goldman Sachs, then went into private speculative funds. Since 2015, the deputy, also a Brexit activist, has been finance minister for two years, but recently he has been getting a lot for price increases. Liz Truss, 46, Minister of Foreign Affairs. She got this post in recognition of her success as the head of the foreign trade department. I have always been in favor of free trade and voted for continued membership in the European Union, when I suddenly went to the opposite camp and even prepared several trade projects already in the post-Brexit era. She is loved by the party grassroots. They respect her for her tough stance on the issue of EU–Northern Ireland relations - she is in favor of breaking the relevant agreement with the EU, as well as for an equally tough line regarding the events in Ukraine. By the way, the outgoing Prime Minister himself noted in his speech that he hopes that the line maintained by Britain towards Russia will remain the same. The Kremlin replied: "He doesn't like us, and we don't like him" and hoped that professionals would come to replace the leadership of the United Kingdom. Britain's policy towards the Russian-Ukrainian conflict cannot change with the arrival of a new leadership, if only because it acts as a united front as part of the collective West. Maybe the successor will not treat Russia as fiercely as Johnson, but this will not change the general approach.

Ministers run away from Johnson's cabinet

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text The scandal erupted from where they were waiting. Another high-ranking employee of the Cabinet of Ministers of Great Britain got into trouble. Chris Pincher at a party in London's private "Carlton Club" hugged, let's say, not fraternally with two other men, and one of them is a member of parliament. And even in front of witnesses. The victims wrote to the party committee. Unofficially, the position of the Pinscher is called "senior deputy for the whip," and officially he should monitor the discipline of deputies from the Conservative Party, but the discipline itself is lame. During the sprinkling of ashes on his head, Pincher said that he "drank too much," but this is not even an excuse for them. Then two key ministers resigned – Rishi Sunak, the Finance Minister, and Majid Javid, the head of the Ministry of Health. Interestingly, Sunak, an Iraqi Kurd, came to Britain with his family without knowing a word of English. He succeeded at first in business, and then began his career in the camp of the Conservative Party. He became a member of parliament in 2010 and gained popularity among new compatriots during the pandemic, being one of those responsible for vaccination. Then a series of resignations of more or less significant cabinet figures began. And the vice-president of the Conservative party, Bim Afolami, effectively announced his resignation on live television and called on Johnson to follow his example, since he "lost the trust of the party and the people." But the essence of the series of resignations is not that the functionary who had gone over his hands, you never know ... but that Johnson, appointing him to the post at the time, knew about his non-standard behavior. At first, Downing Street generally refused, but after a former senior Foreign Ministry official recalled that Pinscher had been doing this for a long time, they said that we had "forgotten" about this detail when we were appointed. Therefore, in all resignation petitions, the main argument is the loss of confidence in the prime minister. "I'm sorry, but it's obvious to me that the situation cannot change under your management," Javid tweets. At the same time, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Defense and Internal Affairs declared their full support for Johnson. And a replacement has already been found for those who have resigned. The British press has unleashed more than just all the dogs on Bowdzhou – the nickname of the prime minister. Selected the most creepy and evil. English irony is not easy to convey, but here, for example, the newspaper "Sun": "During the Judgment Day, which has already come, the prime minister was stabbed with a knife." Or the Guardian: "It's just all clear. Actually, one question is interesting – when and how will he resign?". "Boris can, of course, hold out for a few more hours if he so pleases," Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen says in an interview with Sky News, "but it's better to finish the job before the summer holidays and go on vacation already." The YouGov Institute of Public Opinion immediately conducted a poll showing that 69 percent of Britons think Johnson should leave. A series of scandals in the party of power on this very ground was thus supplemented by another episode. One unnamed parliamentarian was suspected of rape, was arrested, but released on bail in mid-May. Another watched porn on the phone a month earlier right in the House of Commons, the third, already former, received a year and a half for raping a 15-year-old teenager. After the last two cases, the head of the Conservatives, Oliver Dowden, resigned and partial parliamentary elections were held. Not to mention the famous scandalous Christmas party at the Prime Minister's residence, where during the pandemic the Prime minister dances with a certain partner. Moreover, this dancing looks quite comical, but Johnson is far from dancing to his predecessor Theresa May. However, this is not their job. Rishi Sunak, the former finance minister, in his resignation letter noted, among other things, that: "There are serious fundamental differences with the Prime Minister" on economic issues, in particular, when preparing a speech on the economic state of the country, which is supposed to be made next week. Britain has just been hit by a serious strike by transport workers, the largest in the last 30 years. It affected 40,000 employees – that's 80 percent of the staff. The union has received information that thousands of people will soon be out of work. In 2021, prices in the UK increased by 9 percent – the sharpest jump in the last 40 years. And according to the forecasts of the Bank of England, by autumn they will grow by another 11 percent. The reason lies, of course, not in Johnson and not in his subordinates who are unable to control themselves, but in the rise in energy prices. Unlike France, where a significant part of the energy market is covered by nuclear power, Britain is seriously dependent on gas prices. But there is nothing to explain. But as for the actions of the government, there are claims against it. For several weeks it resisted the introduction of a tax on the excess profits of oil and gas giants, which were formed due to a jump in prices. In mid-May, they finally agreed, but this, according to the British press, was in order to distract attention from the discussion of the prime minister's Christmas fun during the pandemic. In the near future, the strike movement in Britain will only expand. There are three sectors next in line: education, healthcare and mail.  Lawyers will follow them. They do not agree on the extent to which the state is going to finance legal aid to the poor. That is, with what fees from the state they will receive for defending people in the courts who are unable to pay for a private lawyer. But the most serious tests will come, as usual, from heaven. The airline sector was severely affected during the pandemic. A lot of employees have been dismissed, hundreds of flights have been canceled. Now the Irish charter carrier Ryanair is on strike all over Europe, and the British IziDget is preparing to join in July. Their services are used by the whole of Europe. The British satirical magazine Private eye issued a weather forecast map on the cover: "Inflation and strikes are expected, a cyclone from Northern Ireland will bring high pressure associated with disagreements over post-Brexit. It will be very hot after the showdown of the Prime Minister's actions. So thunderstorms are very possible."

It is necessary for NATO

Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text The Alliance asked Spain to strain. On January 22, the Spanish frigate Blas de Leso left the port of Ferrol in Galicia and headed towards the Black Sea. On board the flagship of the Spanish fleet with a length of 146 meters – 220 sailors and officers. The vessel is packed with SPY-1D radars and Aegis air defense systems. All this stuff has been put forward for NATO naval exercises. A few days earlier, the Spanish minesweeper Meteoro left the port of Las Palmas in the Canaries and joined another NATO naval group that patrols the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania. In February, six Eurofighter fighters flew from Spain to Bulgaria. When the Spanish Defense Minister announced all these maneuvers, the Iberian Iberian Kingdom began to boil. The Podemos party, which is part of the ruling coalition together with the Socialists, firmly stands on anti-war positions. It got to the point that she refused to take part in the celebrations dedicated to the 40th anniversary of the country's accession to NATO. Equality Minister and party member Irene Montero stated the following: Podemos not only does not accept the increase in maneuvers of our ships and aircraft in these zones, but also believes that the expansion of NATO at the expense of Ukraine and Georgia in the interests of the United States makes no sense." In the communique, she recalled that "Spain remains an anti-war country." This was the slogan of the demonstrations of 2003, when the then Prime Minister Asnar decided to participate in military operations in Iraq. And then, at the just-ended Madrid NATO summit, the following happens. According to the calculations of the North Atlantic Alliance, Spain's defense spending amounts to $ 13.035 billion, that is, 1.01 percent of GDP. This is a mess. Expenses, according to the NATO Charter, should be 2 percent of GDP. This decision was made in 2014, at the summit in Wales. That is, the Spanish budget will have to double defense spending, namely, to find an additional $ 12.8 billion. Well, in order to feel this already "pleasant" news even more acutely, fully assume all the costs of the last Madrid summit. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said at a press conference: "Spain has set itself a goal - to achieve the task by 2029 – and I will work with all political forces to get their support." The prime minister did not have time to finish the sentence, as Podemos declared that it would not support anything like that. Moreover, NATO's calculations are based on 2015 prices, and at present the country spends 14.8 billion. Spain, with its 1.01 percent, is among the three NATO countries contributing the least to the cash register. Luxembourg, which has 0.58 percent of GDP, and Iceland, which has no armed forces at all, fit on this "inverted pedestal". Curiously, only 7 out of 30 NATO countries pay more than the agreed 2 percent. These are the three Baltic powers, Croatia, Poland, which overpays 2.5 billion, Greece, and the United Kingdom. Such alliance locomotives as Germany (– 20 billion) or France (– 2.7 billion) also do not give enough to the treasury, but they have not yet been presented with anything. Although there are quite tricky and complex calculations. NATO membership costs $624 to every German, and $ 734 to every Frenchman. Spaniards pay the least – $275 per nose. Spain is not the most active participant in NATO operations. The most soldiers were sent to Afghanistan – 1,523 people, and the least – to Kosovo – 1 observer (Spain does not recognize the independence of Kosovo). Basically, the kingdom provides the allies with infrastructure. The General Staff of the Land Forces in Betera, this is Valencia, the General Staff and the Navy training Center in the Company that is opposite the fortress of Cadiz in the southwest of the country, right on the Atlantic (that's where you don't want to be demobbed from!), part of the air base in Torrejon, the Air Force command in southern Europe will be mixed there. At one time, the Spaniards were attached to the international battalion "Adagio" in Latvia, it is commanded by Canada. 350 fighters serve there. There is a battery of "Patriots" in Turkey, which is designed mainly to observe Syria, and to carry out sea and air patrols in Lithuania, Estonia and Romania. NATO regulations prescribe what and how to spend from national defense budgets. Spain has everything in order here: 26 percent for equipment, and 2.5 billion for the military bureaucracy in Brussels and elsewhere. Doubling the military budget will not be easy for Spain. For comparison: since 2014, when the decision was made on 2 percent of GDP, the country has increased it by 0.1 percent. But then it will be even more difficult. First, as Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned, "This is not a ceiling, rather we are moving towards the floor. In the context of the events of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this threshold will increase." Secondly, Spain sets the task of GDP growth, which means that the cost of military service will grow in direct proportion. How the prime minister or his replacement will convince the population that NATO needs it is not very clear. On the eve of the Madrid summit, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Alvarez said in an interview with French Figaro: "The meeting, of course, should give an answer to the challenge from the East, but we are waiting for decisions on the southern flank, and this should be reflected in the Strategic Concept of NATO." What's the southern flank? Retired General Jose Enrique de Ayala, an analyst at the Alternatives Foundation, explains: "This term has been launched in NATO for a long time. It was invented to contrast the threat from the East, against which NATO was created." This is the fight against hybrid threats coming from the South – cybersecurity, juggling threats of energy or migration flows for political purposes, jihadism. Spain, with the support of Italy, spoke at the summit in favor of strengthening NATO's presence in the southern direction – in North Africa and the Sahel, while not excluding the alliance's actions in Mali, a hotbed of terrorism and jihadism. But the Strategic Concept of NATO still considers migration and terrorism on the southern flank as new potential sources of instability, which are worth watching.