Brussels is urgently looking for alternative ways to export Ukrainian grain.
Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been blocked again as a result of pinpoint strikes by the Russian Air Force. But what about the millions of tons of Ukrainian grain, which now cannot be delivered to the world market by sea?
The EU headquarters in Brussels decided not to despair. The conclusion is as follows: harbors are not the only way to export agricultural products, and since the beginning of large-scale hostilities — not even the main one.
European officials have calculated that even with the functioning of the grain deal, most of the “good” was shipped along the so-called “solidarity lanes” between Ukraine and the EU.
This initiative emerged in May 2022, after Russia for the first time blocked Ukrainian ports from which more than 20 million tons of grain were to leave. “Solidarity lanes”, as they are called in Brussels, are river, rail and road routes used to deliver Ukrainian agricultural products to neighboring countries.
The European Commission estimates that 60% of grain has been exported this way since the start of hostilities, while only 40% has been exported by sea.
For information: before the beginning of the special military operation, up to 95% of grain and oilseed crops were exported through Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
Brussels estimates that a total of 41 million tons of grains, oilseeds and related products were exported via these alternative routes. In addition, 36 million tons of non-agricultural products — ore, steel, black soil and timber — were exported along them. Due to these logistics, Ukraine received about 33 billion euros in revenue.
So, where do these very “solidarity lines” run?
“According to the Ukrainian authorities, the most efficient route turned out to be the river one — along the Danube. If we assess the existing and potential volume of exports and the level of transportation costs, this is the main route after the sea one,” says the director general of the Danube Commission, Austrian, Manfred Seitz.
For reference, the Commission is an international intergovernmental organization established to regulate navigation on the Danube. Its headquarters is located in Budapest. Last June, Russia was excluded from the preparatory committee of the Diplomatic Conference for the revision of the Convention Concerning the Regime of Navigation on the Danube.
So, according to statistics for May this year, 2.2 million tons of grain were exported from three Ukrainian ports — Kiliya, Izmail and Reni — which accounted for more than 50% of all exports for that month. In parallel, 1.3 million tons (30% of the total volume) were shipped through the Black Sea corridor. In better times (at the beginning of this year), up to 4 million tons were shipped by sea per month.
Now new ambitious tasks are set on the Danube direction: to increase exports to 3 million tons per month.
On the Romanian side, which receives Ukrainian cargo and sends it through the Sulina Canal to the Black Sea, the staff of border control, customs and navigation services has been expanded so that the flow crosses the border without unnecessary delays. No more than 50–60 ships a month used to pass through the canal, but now there are more than 300.
It should be emphasized that the barges following the grain are by no means empty. They are carrying military cargoes. It is therefore not surprising that the Danube ports are legitimate targets for Russia. Thus, on July 24, the warehouses in the port of Reni were destroyed with the help of drones. Earlier, the Zatoka Bridge on the Odessa-Izmail railroad line was disabled. Other infrastructure is also under the threat of potential attacks.
The other route is by road and rail. It accounts for about 20% of exports. As recently as last May, the waiting time for wagons and vans at the border was 16 days, and at some points up to 30 days. To solve this problem, the EU, Ukraine and Moldova have signed new transport agreements allowing freight transport to enter and exit without unnecessary bureaucracy. In addition, the EU abolished customs duties for these countries, and in 2023 they joined the EU’s transport infrastructure financing program.
After a 24-year break, Kiev restored railroad connections with Moldova and then with Romania. In addition, since 2022, three new checkpoints have been opened on the border with Romania and one on the border with Poland, and the capacity of other checkpoints has been expanded.
However, significant technical challenges still remain. For example, the width of the railroad gauge. In the EU it is 1435 mm, while in post-Soviet countries it is 1520 mm. Therefore, supplies from Ukraine have to be transloaded into trucks or railcars that meet EU standards. This is a long and labor-intensive process, and transshipment facilities along the borders are limited. And the Kalibr can successfully reach here!
There is also a serious political problem. Grain imports from Ukraine have disrupted local markets, forcing farmers to demand an end to duty-free imports. The protests have caused shock in Brussels. And even despite compensation to farmers in five neighboring countries, the situation has not been resolved. So far, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia have agreed to accept Ukrainian grain only in transit.
“The EU should not pay one compensation package after another, but find long-term solutions for the import of Ukrainian grain. After all, the root causes of this problem will not disappear: EU markets are more attractive for Ukrainian exports than distant markets of developing countries,” experts of the Farm Europe analytical center believe.
So, for the time being, the EU’s “solidarity lanes” are bursting at the seams. Moreover, they are under the reliable control of Russian Air Forces.