Twelve political scientists — French and German, six on each side — have completed a colossal analytical work entitled «Navigating the High Seas. Reforms and Enlargement of the European Union». They were commissioned by the German and French governments to conduct an expert assessment of the EU, talk to all interested parties and present their conclusions and proposals. The document was sent to the Union’s foreign ministers.
Why did this work become necessary? Because it became clear: in this form, the EU turns into a twin tip, not with two heads, but with twenty-seven. It’s OK if the members of the Union are 6–9–12. Actually, 27 is also good, but the machine becomes clumsy and, as a consequence, inefficient. And there are more members applying for it. In August, Charles Michel, President of the European Council, called enlargement «a challenge for which we must be prepared». And it is on the schedule for 2030, i.e. tomorrow.
Experts have concluded that the EU in its current form cannot gain new members. The adoption of major strategic decisions is a rather complicated process without them. The principle of unanimity slows everything down, and over time simply paralyzes the work.
In fact, each state has the right of veto and, for example, uses it when voting on one issue in order to gain preferences in other areas. This, in particular, was used by Hungary more than once, blocking fundamental decisions on migrants, although they did not directly concern it.
The idea of shaking the foundations adopted at the end of the 1950s has been brewing for a long time. In May 2022, at the Conference on the Future of Europe, Emmanuel Macron proposed the idea of «differentiation» or, as it was dubbed, «a Europe of different speeds». Expert political scientists have taken it as the basis for their proposals. There are five of them, at least the main ones.
Down with unanimity. All EU decisions will have to be taken by a qualified majority. For example, if 60 percent of countries representing a combined 60 percent of the Union’s population voted for it. But the interests of small and medium-sized countries, whose votes are given more weight, will be taken into account.
The report indicates that decisions would have to be duplicated by a vote in the European Parliament. Such a procedure now exists for the most important resolutions.
The law is above all. The authors advised to simplify the procedure, allowing to deprive a country that does not comply with the notions of «fundamental values» of the European Union of the right to vote. In principle, this is already written in Article 7 of the Maastricht Treaty, but in fact it has never been applied precisely because of the complexity of this very application.
«The existence of the rule of law is out of the question if a country wants to be in the EU, says Gaelle Marty, director of the Lyon-based Center for European Studies, who participated in the document’s drafting. — When crossing any border, our citizens must be sure that the law is the same in that country as in others. And for an international arrest warrant to be valid everywhere, justice in every country must be independent».
Budget growth is shared by all. Bond issuance will also become available to everyone, but this point seems to be debated rather vigorously. The EU budget is proposed to be adopted for five years instead of seven.
The architecture of the EU is changing. This is the same idea of a «Europe of different speeds». Now the main geometric figure will be a circle. In the central one there will be several countries — unconditional supporters of European integration.
Then there is a wider circle, which includes, roughly speaking, the rest of the European Union. These countries now and then have questions about the EU structure, but they nevertheless obey the rules.
In the third circle are the countries that can be conditionally called participants of the economic «common market», but not included in the political union. These are, as it were, «associate members» of the EU. The most vivid examples are Norway and Switzerland.
And, by the way, in the future, it could be the UK as well. Macron voiced this idea to British opposition leader Keir Starmer, who visited Paris just on the day of the report’s presentation. Labour would like to have closer relations with the European Union, and if they win the general election, Starmer promised, Britain will certainly take advantage of such an opportunity
The working title of the fourth tier or circle is the “Political European Community”. These are countries that want (or don’t want) to join the union, are in the partnership stage, but certainly «share the political values of the European Union». The PEC is a joint initiative of France and Switzerland. It is expected that this forum will coordinate mainly the foreign policy of the states.
Now eight countries are waiting for their turn to join the EU. Six of them, called the Western Balkans in the EU — Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Kosovo have long been sitting in the front, as they say, and watching Ukraine and Moldova pass by in an accelerated procedure, i.e. without a queue.
Kosovo, as it is known, is not recognized by all EU countries, but the euro has been officially used there since 2002. Turkey and Georgia are out of the question in the report. Northern Macedonia, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, according to experts, should still work on the compliance with the very «fundamental values» of the European Union.
In early October, a meeting of the European Council, the EU’s highest political body, will open in Grenada, Spain, where the first discussion of the report will begin. The second approach is scheduled for December, already at the EU summit in Brussels.