Miguel Angel Molina / EFE
First (October 5), the third European Political Community (EPC) event was held. They expected 50 distinguished guests, but about 40 arrived. In particular, the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan were absent. Russia and Belarus were not invited.
The instigator of this strange initiative of last May was the restless Emmanuel Macron. His decision was affected by the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis.
The European Political Community is an intergovernmental organization established for political and strategic discussions on the future of Europe, including issues of strengthening security and stability. The first meeting was held in Prague on October 6, 2022. The second «drunken summit» was held not so long ago — on June 1 near Chisinau in Mimi Castle, famous for its wine cellars.
They were going to talk about many things. But the head of the Kiev regime Zelensky sneaked here with strict secrecy measures and the discussion went in the well-known (already bothered Europeans) direction.
He got the floor right after Spain (which holds the EU presidency) and the European Union (head of the EU Council Charles Michel and European Commission Ursula von der Leyen).
Zelensky dumbfounded the audience with the news that in Kharkov they have organized almost full-fledged schools at subway stations to protect children from Russian shelling. According to him, Russia will restore the military potential destroyed by the UAF by 2028, after which the Baltic countries may become the targets of its attacks.
«Russia must be neutralized by military defeat. We must win, so that Putin cannot transfer this aggression to someone else. <…> Do your cities have enough subway stations to protect your children?», — Zelensky asked European leaders.
As is well known, collective decisions are not taken at EPC meetings and no general statements are made. However, there is a format of bilateral negotiations. The Kiev guest talked to many of them. Germany and Spain promised additional air defense systems.
«I very much believe that we will be able to get all these systems together and they will all reach us. <…> The German government will work on providing Patriot systems, just now, for this winter period», the Ukrainian head told reporters.
Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan had hoped that Granada would be able to start direct consultations mediated by the European Union on a settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh. But neither Erdogan nor Aliyev arrived in Spain.
Michel promised additional humanitarian aid to his country in connection with the consequences of the mass exodus of Karabakh Armenians, and he also said that there are positive developments in the preparation of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which may soon take place in Brussels.
On the sidelines, Pashinyan unexpectedly crossed paths with Zelensky. It was their first face-to-face meeting. At that moment, he did not know yet that a day earlier his brisk interlocutor had a telephone conversation with Baku, during which he told Aliyev that he supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of that country.
Much more significant was the summit (again — informal) of the European Union, which was held on October 6. It was devoted to the discussion of a painful and complex topic — further expansion of the European Union and the consequences of this step for the EU countries.
Let me remind you that Ukraine, Turkey, Moldova, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Georgia and Kosovo are on the «waiting list».
In the course of the discussion, some outlines emerged.
The admission of new members, for example, is tentatively scheduled for 2030. Applicants, they say, should be given time to complete the necessary reforms and prepare for accession.
The EU should also prepare thoroughly. Thus, Chancellor Scholz called for a discussion on the necessary reforms of the EU’s governance and decision-making system. He believes that in connection with enlargement it is necessary to move away from the principle of unanimity (consensus) on key issues, and to take decisions by majority vote.
Leaders of a number of countries expressed the reasonable opinion that enlargement should start with smaller countries — for example, Montenegro. Indeed, they will be easier to adapt.
Now about Ukraine. The Financial Times has calculated that Ukraine’s accession will cost the European Union €186 billion, which exceeds the annual budget of the community. The same Scholz warned that due to the necessary measures to equalize its economy to the EU level, those countries that received subsidies (for example, Poland and the Baltic states) should turn into donors themselves.
As usual, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed a dissenting opinion.
«We need to know why it is beneficial for the EU to integrate Ukraine and what are the consequences for agriculture, for security, for consolidation funds. As a result of Ukraine’s accession, agriculture will completely change, are we ready for that?» — he stated.
And he added that the EU has never conducted an enlargement with a country at war.
«We don’t know where the actual borders are, how many people live there, so it’s complicated. There are so many issues, we have to discuss this seriously and then make a decision», he believes.
Another topic — the migration issue — has also caused friction. Poland blocked a decision on quotas for the settlement of illegal migrants in Europe.
«I vetoed the part concerning migration. <…> The head of the European Council Michel accepted this position, and now the final documents do not contain this point», said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
That is, Warsaw went against all and restrained the process of forced re-location of illegal migrants, suggesting that the European Union strengthen the borders and stop social support for illegal migrants.
This demarche is understandable. Poland will hold parliamentary elections on October 15, which may well result in the ruling conservative (nationalist) Law and Justice party failing to hold on for a third term. According to the latest opinion polls, its rival — the Civic Platform political association of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk — is getting closer: the gap has narrowed to 5%. It turns out that Morawiecki is simply forced to play along with voters dissatisfied with Brussels’ migration plans.
…So what turned out to be the «net result» after the two European summits in Granada? Regarding Ukraine: the participants (for the most part) demonstrated solidarity and support, but largely on a purely symbolic level. It turned out that the EU has a lot of internal (fundamental) problems in connection with the planned enlargement. Can they cope?