Andrew Harnik / AP
The head of the Berlin cabinet, Olaf Scholz, was honored with a reception at the White House on February 9. Only one hour was allotted for a one-on-one conversation with President Joe Biden. The most important topic was Ukraine.
«The failure of Congress to support Ukraine is close to criminal negligence. It is outrageous», Biden stated.
The day before, the chancellor met with US senators.
«It was a pleasure to talk again with members of the Senate representing both parties. Ukraine needs our common support to defend itself from Russian aggression», he wrote on social network X.
This is his third visit to Washington as head of government. The first was, you could say, introductory. The second — difficult: Biden exerted unprecedented pressure on him, demanding the supply of Leopards to Ukraine. This time it was the Chancellor who voiced his complaints. He said that the United States had shifted the burden of taking care of Ukraine to the European Union and, first of all, to Germany, which has recently been experiencing serious economic difficulties.
And this is despite the fact that the German domestic political track is also turbulent. Despite the ongoing mass protests against the right-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, in which tens and even hundreds of thousands of people have been taking part for half a month, the number of its members is growing. Leaders of the AfD, which advocates ending support for the Kiev regime and launching peace talks, claim that «the number of new applications for admission received and entered into the system» from Jan. 1 to Jan. 25 was about 2,500. At the same time, most of them — 1,900 — were received after January 10, when Correctiv published an investigation in which it was revealed that several AfD functionaries had discussed at a secret meeting with neo-Nazis in Potsdam last November plans for «re-emigration» — the expulsion from the country of millions of foreigners and FRG citizens with migrant roots.
Let me remind you that in the three eastern states (Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt) the AfD branches are recognized as right-wing extremist. A real witch-hunt began, both at the federal level and in the army. For example, in a special order issued on February 5, the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) called on all military personnel of the Bundeswehr belonging to the Young Alternative (the AfD’s youth organization) to immediately report this to their commanders. Belonging to it «will be regarded as grounds for suspicion of aspirations directed against the foundations of a free democratic system». This young organization is considered to be «reliably right-wing extremist».
After the massive and unprecedented attack on the AfD (it continues, by the way), the party’s rating has dropped slightly (by 1%), but still stands at an impressive 20%. At the same time, 7% of voters would vote for the recently established left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which also advocates an end of assistance to Ukraine and the resumption of dialog with Russia.
There is a right wing within the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, whose representatives also advocate a return to the German mark.
For comparison: the combined rating of the three parties of the ruling «traffic light» coalition headed by Scholz, according to the latest polls, is something around 32 %.
This means that the ratio between liberals and opponents of their line is 50/50.
With the rise of the extreme right and the new left, and the growing protests of farmers, truck and train drivers in the recently politically stable Germany, which was the «engine of the EU», the voices for the so-called Dexit (similar to Brexit, from the German-English phrase «Deutschland exit») have become louder and louder. And this means — the exit of the Federal Republic of Germany from the European Union!
Experts have calculated what Dexit will cost. In this (quite real) case, the European bloc will lose a fifth of its budget, and the German economy will lose €227 billion.
The EU is made up of 27 nations, but their economies, size and structure are different. There are donors, but there are also recipients receiving subsidies. Germany is the leading and richest country in the EU. It accounts for a quarter of the entire bloc’s GDP (24%) and a fifth of direct investment from its countries (21%). The FRG is also the largest exporter/importer of goods and services within the association.
There is no definite answer yet as to how much the EU would lose in the event of a «German exodus», as it would depend on many factors, including the terms of exit, the impact on trade, investment, immigration and political stability.
Even if the Germans leave the European Union but remain within the single market, they will face higher non-tariff barriers and a reduction in their political influence in the bloc.
It is not difficult to predict that under any Dexit scenario, a unified Europe is unlikely to survive. And this is already a disaster! And not only for the current EU members, but also for the applicants for accession, including Ukraine.