The idea of ousting a party leader arises, as is known, long before his inauguration. The British Conservatives are now experiencing not the easiest times. Recall that the date of the general election has not yet been announced, but Rishi Sunak may remain at the head of the government until the end of January next year. And now the situation is simply critical — the gap between Labour and the Tories has been hovering at 20. This is too much.
A group of Conservative MPs have approached Graham Brady, head of the «1922 Committee» (a discussion group of Tory backbenchers who don’t actually decide anything) with a proposal to change the prime minister. Yes, they say, we are losing catastrophically, we lost to Labour in Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections. And then there was a scandal with a racist tinge involving the main sponsor of the Conservatives — The Phoenix Partnership, (there’s 10 million pounds, which is nothing by Moscow standards), but the trigger could have been anything.
The leader of the rebels is Simon Clarke, who has worked in Liz Truss’s government. He made his position clear with an almost programmatic article in The Telegraph, which made a lot of noise in Britain and is now quoted by everyone.
«Rishi is showing rather boring leadership of the country», Clarke writes, «and is not leading us towards recovery at all. I would say that he has turned from our asset into more of an anchor. He is leading us to an election in which we will simply be destroyed. He is not listening or hearing what the British people need at all».
After this publication, British politicians did not hold back in their comments.
«Clarke has not helped the country, the party, himself or his colleagues with this publication», says an MP in an interview with The Times, «He should go home now, go to bed, turn off the lights and keep repeating, ‘I have to fight Labor.’ Maybe then he’ll understand».
Indeed, Sunak is facing a very difficult general election. At the moment it does look as though he will schedule them for May. And changing the party leader in a matter of weeks is foolish. He’s been in charge of the cabinet for 16 months. Why do the Tories need a fourth prime minister from 2022?
The most conservative wing of the Conservative party fears that with Sunak they will lose the election — in May or December-January, whatever. The prime minister’s rating has fallen, according to polls by YouGov, a state-run agency, just into a hole: 70 percent commented negatively on his performance.
All the ministers involved in the closed consultations seem to conclude that there is no need to change Sunak. None of the candidates (more on this later) can oppose the prime minister in any way.
The most important question is: will the interim party leader who will theoretically replace Sunak help Labour win this difficult election? After all, he is a fine and competent technocrat, he led the country out of the energy crisis, and brought it from 11 percent inflation to three.
That’s what he got up his sleeve. Rishi Sunak is about to announce a miraculous tax cut. They, the British, have such a mismatch there with income tax and national insurance. Basically, without further explanation, it turns out to be a double tax on labor. It’s not fair. Now Sunak is going to repeal it. The swing voters will be delighted.
Everyone realizes that the tax trap is just a sham. No one will ever feel any difference on their wallet. Labour can offer the same, although tax cuts are not their specialty.
Well, OK, let’s say the Conservatives decide to do this crazy thing and change leader. So who?
Claire Coutinho, age 38, Secretary of State for Energy Security. None of the voters know her and are not going to vote for her, but the candidate appears.
There are well known and described in our materials — Secretary of State for Business Affairs Olukemi Olufunto Badenoch, née Adegoke, aka Kemi Badenoch. She is to the right of the right in the right-wing camp.
Or the leader of the House of Commons, Penelope Mordont. She sits closer to the center in the Conservative camp.
There’s also a promising new leader, Secretary of State for Defense Grant Shapps. He is also rather closer to the Tory center.
So why do they need a full-blown, trenchant and positional leadership battle in the Conservative party? Apparently, there is simply a generational change going on. And it is really not a change of leaders that the Tories should be afraid of.
A new figure is emerging on the British scene — the Reform UK party and its leader, Nigel Farage. This story deserves a separate narrative.