Russia and the DPRK have swiftly concluded a military pact
So, the thing GEOFOR wrote about has happened. We predicted Vladimir Putin’s visit to the DPRK and the active rapprochement between the two countries, and now we can summarize the results. This visit is historic in itself. And first of all not in the sense of pathos, but from the point of view that the leaders of Russia have not spoiled North Korea with such close attention. The last visit of a Russian president to Pyongyang was in 2000, and it was also Vladimir Putin.
A historic visit also because Russia has finally cast aside its embarrassment to the West and concluded a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with a country that, among the few, unequivocally supports the special military operation in Ukraine and is a natural and consistent ally in the confrontation with the United States. This Treaty also has a clause on mutual assistance in case of military attack. This is also a correction of historical gaps. Such a clause was contained in a similar 1961 Treaty and was absent in the 2000 Treaty.
North Korea, which is constantly in the crosshairs of U.S. aircraft carriers cruising near its borders, is receiving some support, not only moral and political. At least Vladimir Putin said in Pyongyang that «the signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and the DPRK provides for assistance to the other side in case of aggression». It is hoped that we will also gain something, although this is already beyond the scope of official discussions and public debates. We will probably not know the full content of the agreements reached in Pyongyang, and that is right. But it is clear that this Treaty can be invoked in case Russia considers that it has been subjected to aggression by the West. Right now, as the Russian president has said, Western weapons strikes on Russian territory are perceived to be «on the verge of aggression». And then, with full legal justification, trained, equipped and highly motivated North Korean units could appear on the line of contact with the AFU. Why not?
If we take a global perspective, we can say that GEOFOR’s forecasts have come true, which predicted the creation of a certain trilateral military alliance between Russia-DPRK-PRC. Formally, it does not exist between China and Russia, but under certain conditions it can be formalized, and very quickly. But mutual assistance in case of aggression is provided for in the treaty between the DPRK and the PRC. In fact, a military triangle of three nuclear countries is formed to counterbalance the attempts to create an Asian NATO, the AUKUS alliance, the QUAD agreement and other US military preparations in the region.
I do not think it is worth expecting the DPRK to join BRICS or SCO in the near future, as Pyongyang’s attitude towards it is ambiguous, and the sanctions imposed on it will serve as an obstacle to practical cooperation within these structures. It is more realistic to involve the DPRK in the activities of the CSTO. It would be a worthy substitute for hesitant Armenia.
We are trying to say that such a sharp rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang worries Beijing. But this is an attempt, with Western encouragement, to make trouble. Russia and China have such close diplomatic interaction that such steps are not sudden for each other. As for the fact that the new Russian-North Korean treaty will allegedly become a pretext for military steps on the part of the United States that will threaten China, the Americans have done and are doing whatever they want without any provocation.
If we assess the bilateral prospects that the visit opens up, they are vast. This is evidenced at least by the composition of the Russian delegation accompanying the President, which included all the key deputy prime ministers and ministers, including the Minister of Defense, as well as the head of Roscosmos. For several years now, we have been talking a lot about the need to disregard certain conventions and begin serious cooperation with the DPRK, but we have done little. So far, normal railroad communication has not been restored; probably only now will we start building a road border crossing. Such an agreement was signed during the visit. The trade turnover last year was purely symbolic — a little over $1 million, now it is a little more — about $26 million. Maybe it is time to stop being afraid and look down on the DPRK?
In the West, for example, they write incessantly about the DPRK’s ability to produce up to 1 million artillery shells a year, which, incidentally, fit most of Russia’s weapons systems. The DPRK is a closed country, we know little about its capabilities, but it seems that now, out of friendship, our leaders have been informed about how this ally can help us, and we can help it. And it is not at all necessary to tell the whole world about it.
Although, of course, the sanctions imposed on the DPRK by the UN Security Council with our participation will be an obstacle to the development of relations. By the way, from the North Koreans’ point of view, Russia’s joining another package of sanctions in 2017 to this day looks a bit strange. They actually prohibit any trade with North Korea, except for humanitarian food shipments. In addition, for example, they prohibit the importation of North Korean labor and so on. But China manages to bypass these sanctions by trading with the North Koreans. And it’s fine. Judging by Vladimir Putin’s statements, Russia intends to somewhat reconsider its approach to these issues. At least, a signal has been sent to the world: artificial restrictions on the DPRK are no longer an obstacle for us.
Russia has had and still has a condescending attitude toward North Korea, which appears in the minds of most people as a pariah, with a backward economy and a primitive army. But now, just as our society began to discover China in 2015–16, it will have to change its perception of the DPRK (first of all, the officials). And this is also a significant outcome of this visit: we will finally turn our face to North Korea — as we once did to China — and learn a lot of interesting things for ourselves. At least we will begin to understand how the DPRK not only survived almost complete international isolation and severe sanctions, but also acquired the most powerful armed forces, nuclear weapons, missile technology, and rebuilt a country that today does not look as backward as we imagine it to be.
It seemed wild to me, as a journalist who worked in the DPRK in 1990–91, that our bilateral relations were being desecrated for the benefit of the West. And the outright mockery of the structure of North Korean society by our media, which had just come out from under the press of censorship, was outrageous. Now it looks like a blatant historical mistake. China, for example, did not abandon its allies. And the Americans are loyal to their not very democratic friends, calling them «our sons of bitches».
So the current rapprochement with the DPRK also seems to be a work on mistakes, because we are linked by historical victories and close cooperation, which, by the way, North Korea has never abandoned. We can have different attitudes towards the DPRK regime, but teaching them how to live and criticizing their internal structure means doing what the US is doing to the whole world, including in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. The role of mentor and world gendarme does not suit Russia. It is good that even in this sense history has put everything in its place.