A behind-the-scenes struggle for the chancellor nomination for the upcoming Bundestag elections has begun within Germany’s Green Party.
Germany’s top diplomat, the furious Annalena Baerbock, unexpectedly told the American TV channel CNN that she would not be running for chancellor from the Green Party («Alliance 90»/«The Greens») in the Bundestag elections set for autumn 2025. «In light of Russia’s aggressive war and now the dramatic situation in the Middle East, more diplomacy is needed, not less. Otherwise, others will fill the gap», she explained, justifying her decision by expressing a desire to focus on her current work and finding ways out of international crises.
Her main «green» competitor, Vice-Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, stated that Annalena had informed him in advance about her forthcoming announcement. «The question of the chancellor candidate is not just a question for me or Baerbock: ‘Who wants to try? Who hasn’t tried yet?’ It’s a question for my party, but also for other parties: ‘What do you offer the country? What do you want to represent in the future? Who do you want to be as a party? What role do you want to play?’ This needs to be clear», noted Habeck, who had stepped aside for Baerbock in the last elections. Now, it seems to be his turn to contend for the position. However, Robert responded evasively: «We will discuss everything else in the party bodies and make the right decisions in due course».
Colleagues of Annalena within the party — such as the leaders of the Bundestag faction Britta Haßelmann and Katharina Dröge, as well as co-chairs Omid Nouripour and Ricarda Lang — praised Minister Baerbock for her commitment to focusing entirely on her role as foreign minister.
It appears that a surprising end is in sight for the bright political career of this young (just 43 years old) and promising figure, a qualified specialist in international law, and mother of two school-aged daughters.
But something seems off…
Indeed, Munich’s Merkur newspaper reported that Baerbock isn’t considering ending her career. «Clearly, there will be another attempt to become chancellor», the publication claims.
Let’s try to figure out what the savvy Annalena might be planning.
Starting with the ratings: In 2021, when Baerbock was the chancellor candidate, her party garnered 14.7% of the vote, finishing in third place. If elections were held next Sunday, the Greens would be supported by less than 13% of Germans, putting them in fourth place — behind the CDU/CSU bloc, the right-wing populists from Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the SPD.
It seems that with such a scenario, the most realistic option next year would be a grand coalition of conservatives (as leaders) and social democrats. The Greens would be relegated to the opposition. Is the former trampolinist ready to drop everything and dive into the electoral race to try to improve the party’s standing? Or is it better, tactically, to retreat and watch how Habeck battles for potential voters’ support?
It’s essential to understand the dynamics within the Greens. The party has two wings — fundamentalists and realists. Habeck and Baerbock belong to the latter. Annalena, incidentally, tends to view the world idealistically, meaning she is, according to experts, inclined toward ecosocialism, typical of the fundamentalist wing. So, (if necessary…) it would be easier for her to switch allegiances if opponents gain the upper hand.
Now about Habeck. He has never hidden his dream of becoming chancellor. But his current position significantly lowers his chances. Germany’s economic sector, which he heads, is struggling: last year, the country was on the brink of recession, and this year, GDP growth is forecasted to be just 1%. With such indicators, it’s challenging to gain confidence both among voters and party colleagues.
Baerbock’s situation is somewhat simpler. She has maximally streamlined German foreign policy, focusing on opposing Russia and criticizing its leader. And Annalena is gaining points, which will be necessary if she is nominated.
Ultimately, the decision will be made at the party congress closer to the elections. Then Annalena might emerge from the shadows. It’s possible that her candidacy will be initiated by colleagues from different party wings who realize that Habeck isn’t succeeding and a new candidate is hard to promote. Then she could say: «Friend Robert, sorry, I honestly let you go first this time, but people are asking…»
However, Baerbock has her flaws, which could negatively impact her ambitions. Many dislike that she often behaves undiplomatically during foreign trips, stubbornly promoting her liberal views. She isn’t well-educated and sometimes confuses countries and continents. She drags along a makeup artist responsible for her appearance, which costs the treasury a tidy sum. Her department was embroiled in a scandal involving consular workers issuing fake passports. Finally, she went to another match of the German national team at Euro 24 not by train but by government plane, despite the fact that the Greens initiated a law banning VIP government officials from short (200 km) and night flights. She seems to be indifferent to such reproaches. But in vain!