Georgia on the Path to a Maidan?

What external and internal forces are working against the ruling party and leadership of Georgia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections.

The press release from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stating that Washington plans to use a «sacred victim» from among the protesters to change the government in Georgia before or immediately after the parliamentary elections on October 26 may initially seem like excessive alarmism. However, this depends on your perspective.

On one hand, the neighboring republic seems relatively calm. Tourists are coming, the service sector is operating at full capacity. Protests related to the adoption of the «Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence» (better known as the law on «foreign agents») have subsided. There are also no mass demonstrations concerning the adoption of the «Law on the Protection of Family Values and Minors» and corresponding amendments to other Georgian laws, even though the package was approved in the first reading with 78 votes in favor and none against at the end of June.

Incidentally, a few days before the vote, the organization «Tbilisi Pride», representing the Georgian LGBT community, announced that this year’s «Pride Month» would proceed without any «physical events». That is, the «rainbow» community was advised to stay home, avoid marches and pickets to prevent any «retaliation» from numerous compatriots who adhere to the traditional family values of the republic.

Now, let’s «flip the coin» and see the conditions under which the Georgian leadership is working to maintain stability in the republic.

First, it is necessary to note the unprecedentedly high level (for Georgia) of pressure from the West in general and the USA in particular. The formal reason for numerous statements was the «foreign agents» law. However, the behavior of the Georgian leadership, which refused to open a «second front» against Russia after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) and did not sever trade and economic ties with Moscow, caused undisguised irritation in Washington and Brussels. Let’s pay attention to at least two recent events.

Earlier this month, Pentagon officials reported that the US is conducting a comprehensive review of US-Georgian bilateral relations. Strangely, the State Department has remained silent about this, although the statement mentions that a full review of bilateral cooperation with Georgia began back on May 30. As part of this process, the US will indefinitely postpone the «Noble Partner» exercises, planned for July 25 — August 6. These exercises have been held in Georgia since 2015, involving military personnel from Georgia, the US, NATO countries, and the region.

However, Americans wouldn’t be Americans if, while punishing a disobedient partner, they didn’t show a «carrot». Therefore, the Pentagon’s statement also includes this passage: «The United States looks forward to future opportunities for cooperation with allies and partners, including Agile Spirit in 2025».

Another event occurred almost simultaneously with the Americans (what a «coincidence!»): the EU representative in Georgia, Ambassador Pawel Herczynski, announced Brussels’ decision to transfer 30 million euros intended for the Georgian Ministry of Defense to the non-governmental sector. He emphasized that this is only the first step, and direct support for the Georgian government will gradually be reduced.

Obviously, these decisions are aimed at causing discontent among Georgian military personnel. The Commander-in-Chief in Georgia is the President, i.e., Salome Zourabichvili, a former French ambassador to the republic, and foreign minister under President Saakashvili, who earned the reputation of «president from the opposition». The degree of her influence on the military leadership is unknown. However, considering that most high-ranking military personnel and middle-ranking officers have undergone training in NATO countries’ armies, it is not excluded that in case of a crisis in the republic, some of them may act according to her orders, i.e., against the government.

Secondly, regarding the redirection of 30 million euros (a significant amount for Georgia) to non-governmental organizations, of which there are thousands in the republic, this only confirms the thesis that Georgian NGOs are a kind of «intermediary firms» through which Western funds and government agencies finance the opposition.

Since we touched on the issue of financing party and political structures, let’s continue.

According to official data from Georgia’s Anti-Corruption Bureau, from January to June, parliamentary parties received donations totaling 2,839,895 lari. Almost half of these (1,403,706) were donations to the ruling bloc «Georgian Dream — Democratic Georgia» (GD-DG). Notably, among the donors, whose names are also recorded, neither the founder and main sponsor of «Georgian Dream», the richest citizen of the republic Bidzina Ivanishvili nor any members of his clan, are listed.

As for the opposition, the leading party now is «Lelo for Georgia», which received donations amounting to 910,500 lari. Next is the largest opposition party «United National Movement» (UNM) with 464,400 lari. The party «For Georgia» of ex-Prime Minister Gakharia received 50,900 lari over the past six months. The parliamentary opposition party «European Socialists» lags significantly behind with 10,300 lari. Two parliamentary parties — «Citizens» and «Strategy Aghmashenebeli» — did not receive a single lari. As for the smaller non-parliamentary parties, of which there are over two hundred in the republic, it’s clear without the Anti-Corruption Bureau that there is no money there.

It is unlikely that Europeans and Americans (the latter are still silent on the issue of financing the opposition) will divide the allocated funds among dozens of parties. Most likely, the bulk will be distributed among several of the most promising election blocs, as a single winning party is not yet visible. The traditional leader of the opposition — UNM («United National Movement») — lost a quarter to a third of its voters after last year’s split, according to Georgian experts. Moreover, significant funds will be needed to organize a possible Maidan if the «GD-DG» wins again.

Consolidating opposition forces in Georgia is a challenging task. It’s not just about who will lead in case of victory and how to divide portfolios. There is a purely national factor: most significant political structures of the opposition were created by politicians or businessmen somehow associated with Saakashvili or UNM, who ended up out of favor. In other words, personally offended.

The current situation is as follows. «United National Movement» and the party «Strategy Aghmashenebeli» have formed an election platform «Unity for Georgia’s Salvation» («Unity»). Recall that the leader of «Strategy Aghmashenebeli» Giorgi Vashadze was one of Saakashvili’s team members during his presidency. A few years after the change of power in the country, he left the «National Movement» and created his own party.

«If other parties could not unite at this stage, let’s unite with politicians, social activists, civil organizations, and most importantly, with youth», — stated the chairperson of UNM Tina Bokuchava at the congress, reports Interfax.

Three opposition parties also decided to unite for the elections: «Akhalaia», «Girchi — More Freedom», and «Droa», created by former members of the same UNM. This trio is trying to negotiate cooperation with the «Lelo for Georgia» party (founded by Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, former bankers from the Saakashvili era). However, due to «differences in views», the alliance has not yet formed, but negotiations continue.

It is fair to note that the aforementioned five opposition parties signed a charter in June regarding the creation of the «most effective unity configuration» to achieve better results in the October 26 elections. However, this «unity» is not yet visible. Maybe it will mature by autumn.

According to Georgian experts, the ruling bloc «GD-DG» («Georgian Dream») currently has a real chance not only to win the elections but also to increase its representation in parliament to 100 deputies, achieving a constitutional majority. There are a total of 150 seats in the Georgian parliament.

Archil Sikharulidze, head of the research center SIKHA Foundation, explains the leadership of «Georgian Dream» at this stage as follows:

«I think there is no doubt that in relation to all the parties that will act as the opposition, GD has a significant advantage. This is due to the fact that GD has a certain platform, a certain direction on which it works. GD states that it maintains a balance and does not intend to turn Georgia into a stronghold against Russia; its goal is to diversify foreign policy, taking into account the state’s strategic interests».

According to the political scientist, the opposition parties do not have a clear platform, they rely solely on their connections with the West: «They mainly try to pressure Georgian society and the authorities from outside. They try to get external support and show that the reason they should win the elections is not that they have something to offer the Georgian people, but because they are supported by the West. And this has not worked for a long time. People no longer fall for such things, they care not about who is supported in the West, but what exactly these forces can offer. This needs to be understood».

Many experts confirm that GD has a clear and understandable platform, so it is likely to at least secure a simple majority in parliament, although it aims for a constitutional majority.

Such a development is categorically unacceptable to the USA. The opposition’s creation of various electoral platforms does not allow it to approach the GD’s rating even in a bloc. Moreover, as Irakli Garibashvili stated, «Georgian Dream» intends to hold powerful electoral events in 10 regions within 100 days.

Therefore, there is a high probability that the USA will act according to a very tough scenario, up to regime change in the country, in which Washington and its Western allies are extremely interested. Most likely, the Americans will opt for a repeat of the «Ukrainian scenario», organizing a new Maidan. A similar forecast is suggested in the statement of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.

It is worth recalling that in recent years, there have been several attempts to change the regime in Georgia. And behind each of them stood non-governmental organizations funded, including by the USA.

The first attempt was made in 2020. It concerns the «error» in the results of the parallel vote count in the parliamentary elections in October 2020, conducted by the non-governmental organization «International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy» (ISFED), funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

The authorities claimed that ISFED falsified the results of the parallel vote count. But the NGO admitted its «error» only five weeks later, which the «radical opposition» took advantage of, declaring a boycott and starting protests.

The second attempt took place shortly after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, in June 2022. The Georgian authorities immediately stated that they would not impose sanctions against Russia or send volunteers to Ukraine, as the opposition demanded, but would comply with the international sanctions regime. In the same month, Georgia was denied candidate status for EU membership, sparking a wave of protests in the country. At the anti-government rally «Home to Europe», the leaders of several large NGOs spoke, including Eka Gigauri, head of the organization «Transparency International — Georgia».

Recently, the West made a third attempt, using a sharp angle of attack. From April 15, 2024, after the initiation of the law on «foreign agents», mass protests began, organized by NGOs and opposition parties. This gave the Georgian authorities grounds to state: here is significant evidence that the wealthiest NGOs are interfering in politics; therefore, the law on the transparency of their funding is absolutely necessary for the country.

Thus, the scenarios, executors, and necessary resources for provocations in Georgia are available. As for the «sacred victims», let us recall the Georgian snipers on the Kiev Maidan. By the way, during the protests in 2023, when the bill on «foreign agents» was first introduced in parliament, several thugs from the so-called «Georgian Legion» hurriedly returned to the republic from Ukraine, as reported by Georgian media. So, if necessary, experienced killers can also be found.