The Third Plenum of the CPC Central Committee held in Beijing
This event was eagerly anticipated not only in China. Primarily because, along with party congresses, third plenums of each convocation are significant events in the country’s life. They are usually dedicated to the economy, not just the economy but defining mid-term plans and sometimes development strategies. This was the case at the historic Third Plenum in 1978 when the reform program was adopted. Deng Xiaoping drastically changed the policy, directing the country on the path of «reform and openness», which ultimately led China to global leadership.
Interest in the event was also fueled by the fact that the Third Plenum was supposed to take place at the end of last year but was held only now. There were many expectations and speculations about this delay. In Russia, there was talk that the Plenum’s decisions were being carefully considered and would be epoch-making, changing the world. The Western mainstream associated the delay of this key party event with economic problems or alleged disagreements within the Chinese leadership. They wrote and spoke about the slowdown of China’s economy, the large debts of local governments, the «collapse» in the real estate and construction sectors, high youth unemployment, and so on.
However, there were also attempts to maintain objectivity. «In the 1970s and 1980s, after the beginning of the reform and opening-up policy, China’s economic growth rates were unmatched. For example, in recent decades, the per capita production volume increased by approximately 3000%, causing many analysts to call China’s economic growth a ‘miracle’», states an article on the World Economic Forum website. Relatively objective journalists wrote about China becoming the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity, producing a third of the world’s industrial output, and being the backbone of global trade.
On July 15, the day the Plenum opened, economic data for the first half of 2024 was published, showing that China’s planned GDP growth rates were being met at 5%. But in the West, even this figure was met with skepticism, suggesting that China was indeed slowing down. For Europe, such dynamics would be a godsend. The Chinese themselves have long since stopped worrying about growth rates, having shifted in 2018 to a strategy of so-called qualitative development, focusing on high technologies and creating new fields such as new energy sources and artificial intelligence.
As the Plenum proceeded, a fake news story circulated in the Russian information space, spread through Western social networks, about alleged health problems of the CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping. Its source, as it turned out later, was the same blogger associated with the anti-Chinese Falun Gong movement, living in the U.S., who a couple of years ago «organized» a military coup in Beijing with the deployment of troops there and the arrest of Xi Jinping. Notably, her previous misinformation came on the eve of the 20th CPC Congress. Nonetheless, even reputable outlets like The Economist fell for it, reporting that Xi Jinping had a stroke during the Third Plenum.
The spread of these rumors was facilitated by the fact that traditionally Third Plenums are held without the press, with practically no information about their proceedings and no official information at all.
However, today we already have videos from the Plenum, where Xi Jinping, in good health, addresses more than 370 CPC leaders. He made the main report and presided over this party forum, where decisions were made and the final communiqué was approved.
From this document, we can make a preliminary conclusion that no revolutionary changes have occurred in China’s life. All previously planned strategies will generally be carried out. This includes deepening reforms, openness, high-quality development, and the development of high-tech industries. As planned, by 2035, a «high-level socialist market economy» will be fully built, and by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Republic, a «modernized socialist state». It is worth noting the word «socialist». Some forget that China is a socialist country (albeit with Chinese characteristics), writing that socialism in China is a fiction. However, this is far from true. After all, the Communist Party governs China with its charter and program. Building a «modernized socialist state» involves, as some experts believe, a gradual rejection of market elements widely spread in today’s China.
But already now, we can say that capitalism in China works as long as it does not contradict the interests of the country and the people. Large private corporations are under the strategic control of the government and the CPC. Although the Plenum’s communiqué does not contain some formulations implying restrictions for private capital on the way to «common prosperity», this does not mean abandoning the ideals of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
One thing China will not abandon is free communication with the outside world. «Openness is a prominent feature of Chinese modernization. We must unwaveringly adhere to the policy of openness to the outside world, continue to promote reforms through openness, and create a new system of a higher level of openness», the Plenum’s communiqué states.
The creation of a «Beautiful China» and a «Peaceful China» (meaning safe for its citizens, although personal crime is already minimal) will also continue. By 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army of China, a modernized army will be built.
Regarding foreign policy, it is succinctly outlined. It is stated that Chinese modernization follows a path of peaceful development. «We must adhere to an independent and self-reliant peaceful foreign policy» — a direct quote from the communiqué.
How the Plenum proceeded and what will happen next is indicated by the final phrase of the communiqué: «The Plenum called on all party comrades, the army, and the multinational people of the country to unite more closely around the CPC Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, to uphold the banner of reform and openness, consolidate all forces and tirelessly strive forward, and resolutely fight for the realization of the goal set for the centenary of the PRC to fully build a modernized socialist state and comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese modernization!»
There were also specific personnel decisions. According to the Plenum’s communiqué, it was decided to «satisfy the request of the PRC Foreign Minister Qin Gang to resign and relieve him of his duties as a member of the CPC Central Committee». Judging by this wording, the minister, who suddenly disappeared last year and was even «buried» by Politico, is alive but removed from office. The reason is not stated, but rumors suggest it is related to an extramarital affair, which is not welcomed in China, especially among high-ranking officials.
The fate of the former PRC Defense Minister was also decided. Most likely, he and his colleagues will face criminal prosecution. «The Plenum reviewed and adopted the report of the CPC Central Military Commission on the investigation of serious violations of discipline and law by Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming. The decision previously made by the CPC Central Committee Politburo to expel Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming from the CPC was approved». Nothing good is predicted for these comrades.
At a press conference following the plenum, it was announced that the «Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reforms to Advance China’s Modernization» was also adopted. It consists of 15 parts and 60 articles divided into three major sections. The «Decision» proposes a total of more than 300 important reform measures. Which ones — we will find out later. Unlike the communiqué of the plenum, this document has not yet been published. But even the published communiqué is quite difficult for non-specialists to understand, as it «encrypts» the details of economic and political steps in the style typical of Chinese party documents.
Some Russian observers and politicians hastily concluded that China allegedly decided to further break off from the Western world and that Xi Jinping is «preparing the country for open confrontation with the West». China does not want this at all and avoids it in every possible way. Much will depend on the intentions of the opposite side.
However, the real results of the Plenum will become clear later, possibly through specific changes that will occur.