This is China, Friend

Why did Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kuleba visit China?

In short, for the same reasons diplomats typically undertake overseas trips: to discuss pressing bilateral and international issues. In this context, another primary topic was exploring paths to peace in Ukraine. Officially, the Ukrainian side announced the trip’s goal as such, marking Kuleba’s first meeting with China since the start of the special military operation.

It would be a mistake to portray the situation as if Beijing, amidst sudden turmoil in the U.S. power structure, «summoned» Mr. Kuleba to push him and his patron towards peace and negotiations with Moscow. Although, of course, it cannot be ruled out that, anticipating the upcoming Trump with his sharp statements, Kiev decided not to reject the hand extended from Beijing.

China, unlike any other country, has advanced in peacemaking efforts regarding Ukraine, proposing a peace plan and constantly engaging in shuttle diplomacy on this topic through the efforts of Special Representative Ambassador Li Hui. If something goes wrong for Kiev, it could use the mediation services of Chinese colleagues. Moreover, Kuleba, and not only him, was undoubtedly impressed by the unprecedented peacemaking journey of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who did not bypass Beijing.

It is clear that the Chinese leadership, which is making considerable efforts on the peace track, needed to show results. And through the words of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, it quickly declared that Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia. It cannot be said that this was an exaggeration — this is how Chinese comrades see the situation.

Later, Kuleba himself explained the matter. He seemed to be talking about negotiations, but under certain conditions with respect to Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This caused confusion and misunderstanding.

So, is Ukraine ready for negotiations or not? Clarifications are required.

The Chinese side is also for negotiations and territorial integrity, which is its unchanging position. However, a certain part of Ukraine is no longer de jure part of it due to the referendums held in the «new territories» and the legal procedure of joining Russia. And no one seems to be seriously encroaching on the rest of Ukraine’s territory, except for Poland’s interest in Western Ukraine. And China could agree with this view at some stage, which would also be in line with upholding territorial integrity.

Meanwhile, the Politburo member of the Communist Party of China (CPC), head of the CPC Central Committee’s Foreign Affairs Office, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi continues his country’s mediating mission. In the context of negotiations with his Ukrainian counterpart, he stated that «recently, both Ukraine and Russia have signaled readiness for negotiations to varying degrees. Although conditions and timing for negotiations are not yet ripe, China supports all efforts that promote peace, and is ready to continue playing a constructive role in ending the fire and war and resuming peace talks». Wang noted that China is concerned about the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and will continue to provide humanitarian aid.

In general, judging by these words, it is about a difficult path to negotiations, and China is ready to walk it. But Kuleba’s visit showed that China is now clearly the main sponsor of the peace process in Ukraine.

It can be assumed that these were full-fledged bilateral negotiations during which bilateral relations issues were also discussed. It should be noted that cooperation between the two countries is termed «strategic» in Chinese-Ukrainian documents. China and Ukraine not only maintain trade and economic relations but also try to develop them. And China has an interest in participating in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

After the talks, Wang Yi said that China and Ukraine are friendly countries to each other, established a strategic partnership more than ten years ago, treated each other with mutual respect and equality, and steadily developed mutually beneficial cooperation.

According to him, Ukraine is one of the first countries to support and participate in joint cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In recent years, China has been Ukraine’s largest trading partner and the largest importer of its agricultural products.

Wang Yi also highlighted that in the first half of this year, there was a trend of rapid growth in trade between China and Ukraine, demonstrating the potential for bilateral cooperation. The Chinese minister assured that China will continue to expand grain imports from Ukraine, jointly support the smooth operation of logistics channels, and international food security.

In this context, the Ukrainian guest was given the opportunity to meet with the head of the administration of Guangdong Province (whose GDP significantly exceeds Russia’s), Wang Weizhong, and discuss trade and economic issues. Kuleba also visited Hong Kong and met with its Chief Executive John Lee. The Ukrainian minister had the chance to appreciate the advantages of traveling on Chinese high-speed trains. During such a trip, he recorded a video greeting for the Chinese audience in Chinese, thanking them for their support. It looks amusing.

The question arises: on whose side is China, and what is it aiming for? It seems that Kuleba himself answered this question quite well after the talks. His words will certainly draw interest in the West. «Those who believe that China will side with either Russia or Ukraine are deeply mistaken and take too superficial a view of China’s strategic vision for the development of the situation in the world, not only in Ukraine», Kuleba told Ukraine’s «Television News Service». «There was a clear signal that China views bilateral relations with Ukraine outside the context of their relations with Russia or our relations with the U.S. or the war. This means that China has a clear understanding that relations with Ukraine, as an independent European country, will be a separate direction of China’s foreign policy. China has always firmly, for thousands of years, stood and will stand solely on the position of its own country’s interests».

On one hand, China has been lucky; it has gained a lot from the sanctions that the West imposed on Russia. For example, it took over markets in Russia that Western partners abandoned, received hydrocarbons at favorable prices, and so on. But on the other hand, the conflict hampers global Chinese trade, limits the development of its Belt and Road Initiative. Ultimately, modern China advocates for peaceful coexistence, against wars and conflicts. This is also its principled position, enshrined in party and state documents. All this, one must think, Kuleba found out during his visit. So it wasn’t a wasted trip.