New Chief of the UK General Staff delivers a particularly dire report for the first time
Roland Walker’s first public speech at the Land Warfare Conference was described as the most serious ever delivered by a military commander. According to the general, the country must prepare for World War III in 2027 or 2028, when China will invade Taiwan, and both England and the USA will be involved in this scenario. The coalition against the Anglo-Saxons will consist of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. These countries are currently increasing their cooperation exponentially.
Let’s get this straight. Sir Walker is a professional soldier, so all his thoughts are about war. If he and his colleagues were, say, dentists, they would be urging not to delay treatment for tooth decay. Nevertheless, these thoughts are fascinating.
According to the general, it is not so important how the confrontation in Ukraine ends, because Russia has become “very, very dangerous and in any case” will seek retribution for our aid to the Ukrainians. And to prepare for the upcoming war, the United Kingdom has three years, which should be quite enough.
Interestingly, the new Chief of the General Staff does not even hint at increasing defense spending, and assumes that preparation must be done with the resources already available, relying on their own capabilities. These are ideas similar to the Juche idea, but with a British interpretation.
How does he plan to deal with the situation? First of all, Roland Walker noted that the current size of the British Army is 72,500 men (less than at the time when Napoleon planned to invade England in 1798). According to the commander, the idea that combat power is determined solely by the number of troops is outdated, and therefore it is necessary to create an army from those available, but one that «can fight and win against anyone… And the British Army is medium in size, but that is not what is important».
Walker suggests, for example, preparing a 7,000 bayonet strike brigade capable of destroying the 20,000-man Russian 18th Armored Division.
At the same time, the general is again assuming that old equipment will have to be used because logistical supply plans and stocks are dwindling, and new transport vehicles and artillery systems on which the troops have depended simply will not reach the troops in time — they physically cannot be produced by the stated deadline.
The first step is to double the fighting power of the army. Within three years, the level of training should be raised to such a level that the troops can hold the situation and naturally win, and by the end of the decade, the combat power should even be tripled.
Where did he get these dates? According to his reasoning, by 2027, Russia will be able to rearm precisely with the help of Iran, China, and North Korea. And again, «regardless of the outcome of the hostilities in Ukraine, one conflict may spill over into another». Moscow, in this case, «may feel angry and aggrieved», Walker believes.
Before the election, the Labour Party pledged in its manifesto to increase defense spending from 2.3% of GDP to 2.5%. Now that they are in power, they have begun a general review of the state of the armed forces, which should be completed by the middle of next year. But it has already become clear that there is a huge gap in the army’s budget, and it may not be possible to increase spending.
Nevertheless, new armored vehicles and artillery systems have already been ordered for the British Army. The Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy are the biggest spenders. During the election campaign, the Labour Party promised to build four new nuclear submarines. And senior military leaders fear that the government may abandon the Tempest fighter jet production program, estimated at £12 billion, and divert that money to modernization in other areas.
The new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has not yet addressed the issue of sixth-generation fighters, as Italy and Japan are also involved in the program, and the UK’s participation is still in question.
«Time is not on our side, and we cannot afford to do nothing», said Lieutenant General Michael Elviss, the army commander, at the same conference, «If we want to create the most lethal army in Europe, we need to purchase smart ammunition, i.e., missiles with multiple warheads, and a large number of effective drones, without which, as it turns out, modern warfare is impossible».
The previous Conservative government planned to reduce the size of the army from 82,000 to 73,000. It turned out that they exaggerated a bit, and the number of personnel fell below the target. It is shrinking every month because there is a wave of mass resignations, and there is no wave of new enlistments yet.
This has worried Britain’s NATO partners, who believe the army should remain large. By comparison, there are now 110,000 soldiers under the French flag.