What is the "fog of war"?

The Kiev regime made a show of receiving the first batch of F-16 fighter jets from the West.

The arrival in Ukraine of the first American-made fourth-generation multirole F-16 fighters has been reported. Their flights were recorded in the skies over Lvov and the Odesa region. It is assumed that they took off not from Ukrainian airfields, but from the territory of Poland and Romania. According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, citing its sources, the fighters will initially be used only as «air defense assets».

Then a poorly orchestrated political circus began. Presidential advisor Mihail Podolyak promptly reported that Kiev would not officially confirm the arrival of the aircraft and their quantity. The «fog of war» would be very useful in this matter, he added.

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Aleksander Syrskyi clarified that the F-16 would not approach the front line closer than 40 km. This is because «the Russian army has incredibly strong aviation, which significantly exceeds that of Ukraine». There are fears that if the fighters are deployed «at the front», they will simply be shot down.

After a short break, former comedian Zelensky returned to the stage on August 4. He became the main character in a video recorded (presumably) at the Vasylkov airfield in the Kiev region. Behind him were two American warplanes. «We made it happen», he wrote on one of the social networks, expressing admiration for «our guys who master these planes». Zelensky thanked his team and all partners for the result, mentioning Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States.

An important detail: the head of the Kiev regime revealed that ten of the promised 79 F-16 had been received, and by the end of the year the Armed Forces of Ukraine should have 20 fighters.

In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported on July 30 that the U.S. had agreed to equip the fighters with AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM and AIM-9X air-to-air missiles, as well as AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground anti-radiation missiles. Previously, the issue of combat equipment remained unresolved.

There are clear discrepancies. Just a month ago in Washington, NATO members promised a different arrangement. First — six F-16 from the Netherlands, then a batch from Denmark (the number of aircraft was not specified), next — six from Norway (timeframe — «soon»), and an unspecified number from Belgium (timeframe — «next year»).

According to the New York Times, Kiev could receive only 45–50 fighters in the foreseeable and rather vague future. Only 12 Ukrainian pilots, who completed training at a US military base in Arizona in May, are trained to operate them. If the equipment is delivered in the promised volume and within the agreed timeframe, a significant portion of the F-16 will be stationed outside Ukraine (presumably in Romania and Poland), waiting for new pilots to complete the introductory course.

It turns out that the situation has suddenly changed drastically. Or the Danes have been rash. Or is Zelensky’s production center «Kvartal 95» creating fog and putting on another show, distorting the facts? Let’s see.

A few words about the F-16. Ukraine is looking for old modifications of used planes all over the world. Decommissioned aircraft are repaired and overhauled. But the fighters are not only received by Ukraine. Recently, for example, the latest F-16C/D Block 70 aircraft arrived in Slovakia. This is a «thank you» (not for free, but at half price) from overseas for the delivery of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine by the previous government in the spring of 2023. By the way, the new government headed by Prime Minister Robert Fico intends to prosecute those responsible for this action under the article «treason».

Two more of the latest fighters will be delivered to Bulgaria by the end of the year. They will remain at the plant in Greenville, South Carolina, for testing until March 2025. Previously, the authorities paid for two contracts (for 8 aircraft each) with a significant discount for a record amount for Bulgaria — 5 billion leva.

It is known that Bulgaria and Slovakia have problems with the certification of air bases where the new aircraft will be stationed. So, there may be delays in the deployment of the American equipment.

The F-16 Block 70/72 is an evolution of the Block 50/52 with the APG-83 AESA radar, a new on-board computer, a new large cockpit display and other avionics improvements.

It should be noted that the assembly lines of the Lockheed Martin Corporation, which produces these fighters, are running at full capacity. Currently, there are urgent orders for Slovakia (14 aircraft), Bulgaria (16), Bahrain (16), Morocco (24), Taiwan (66), and Jordan (12).

Such is the turnover of the F-16…

But let’s return to the not-so-young and not-so-advanced F-16, eagerly awaited by the Kiev regime. It is unlikely that they will fundamentally change the situation on the front, whether there are 45–50 or even 79 of them.

Meanwhile, the hunt for American planes has already begun. The FORES company, which supplies equipment to oil and gas companies, has announced a reward of 15 million rubles for the first F-16 to be shot down. After the tanks — the vaunted German «Leopard» and the American «Abrams» — it will be the turn of the fighters to be sacrificed. As for the armored vehicles, quite a few have already been destroyed. And the fighters got bonuses for it.