Algeria has recalled its ambassador from Paris. Relationship between the two countries is falling apart.
The conflict was over Western Sahara. For those who don’t follow events in that region on a daily basis, here’s an explanation. Imagine the Canary Islands. Western Sahara is directly across and slightly south of them on the continent; the name of the territory says it all. It was a former Spanish colony that at some point became more of a liability than an asset. Since then, the region has essentially been in limbo. Since 1976, most of Western Sahara has been controlled by Morocco, and the rest by the guerrillas of the Polisario Front, which is fighting for the territory’s independence with the support of Algeria.
Nineteen countries, including the United States and Israel, support Moroccan sovereignty over the region, while forty-nine, mostly African nations, support independence. The UN’s position is telling: it doesn’t take one. The people have a right to independence, but the UN supports neither Morocco nor the guerrillas. As a result, the locals continue to herd camels in defiance of international law, with occasional skirmishes since the referendum and ceasefire proposed by the Polisario Front in 1991 never materialized.
You’ve probably asked yourself a pertinent question: why the conflict? The answer lies in phosphates, various iron ores, and offshore oil in the Atlantic Ocean. However, like many African nations, they cannot extract these resources on their own.
Relations between France and Algeria have deteriorated in recent years. Hardly any new major economic projects have come to fruition.
Recently, President Macron sent a letter to Morocco’s King Mohammed VI congratulating him on his 25 years of rule. The letter clearly states: «The present and future of Western Sahara are under Moroccan sovereignty». France has thus effectively joined the countries that supported Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan.
It’s worth noting that Washington recognized this plan back in 2020 in exchange for Morocco normalizing relations with Israel. Since then, Algeria has severed ties with Morocco, and Morocco has launched an international campaign urging other nations to follow the U.S. example. Spain responded, though at the cost of a crisis with Algeria, and later Germany followed suit. French diplomats whispered that France would soon follow. Meanwhile, Algeria declared that the Western Sahara issue was non-negotiable and its position irrevocable. Morocco is now seen as the enemy.
«Algeria has been dragging its feet and playing with relations with France without having the necessary strength and resources», admits an anonymous Algerian journalist. «They underestimated Macron. They overestimated their power — relying on rising oil prices, failing to take a clear position on Ukraine, and miscalculating French domestic politics. As a result, the balance of power turned against them».
The strained relations with Algeria are not new. Sarkozy had advised Macron against forming an «artificial friendship with the leadership of its southern neighbor». Nevertheless, at the last G7 in Italy, where the Algerian president was present, he and Macron embraced, walked together, and, according to the same Algerian journalist, «showed such sweetness in their relationship that it’s a wonder we didn’t all get diabetes».
Both sides are preparing for the consequences. According to the Bank of France, investments in Algeria amount to 2.4 billion euros, compared with 8.1 billion euros in Morocco.
“I think our government had two considerations. First, the status quo in relations was leading to a dead end, and second, Morocco currently offers more advantages, so at some point a clear stance is necessary”, says former French Ambassador to Algeria Xavier Driencourt.
In a similar situation to Spain, Algeria has suspended the friendship treaty, which mainly regulates cultural exchanges, diplomatic contacts have been suspended, and air links suspended during the pandemic remain suspended. Only cooperation on terrorism and illegal migration continues.
«It is probably unwise to overestimate the potential for economic cooperation with Algeria», the former ambassador continues. «French companies do more business in Morocco. And when air links are cut, as they were with Madrid, who suffers more? Probably the Algerians».
A 1968 agreement between the two countries provided favorable conditions for Algerian nationals living in France. At the time, industrial growth required more workers, prompting France to turn to its former colony. Much has changed since then, and the Algerian population in France has grown. During his presidency, Sarkozy proposed renegotiating or even canceling the agreement. The answer was clear: «We will cut off the gas».
This agreement is one of the levers Paris has at its disposal. Another is a 2007 agreement to grant visas to holders of Algerian diplomatic passports (essentially all senior officials and officers). There is also an agreement on the mutual recognition of social security, which mainly benefits Algeria.
Algeria could refuse to accept its illegal migrants deported from France, since their repatriation requires Algerian consent. French auto giants Renault and Peugeot, which have assembly plants abroad, and French imports in general, could suffer.
«This situation is so unprecedented that it is difficult to predict anything», says a former senior Algerian official. «You can argue with Spain, France, Morocco, anyone. But if Trump comes to power in America at the end of the year, it will strengthen Israel’s position in the region for the next quarter century, which is the worst scenario for Algeria».
In particular, Algeria has presidential elections scheduled for September 7, in which Abdelmadjid Tebboune is running for a second term. In some ways, a break with France could benefit him, given the interests of certain factions in the country that oppose any rapprochement with Paris.
Macron has probably seized this moment to clarify and announce his position, while his government deals only with technical matters and current affairs. The next government, probably a coalition, will be faced with a fait accompli.