The upcoming elections in three states on the territory of the former GDR promise to drastically change the German political landscape.
Elections for state parliaments are coming up in three regions of eastern Germany: Saxony and Thuringia on September 1 and Brandenburg on September 22. The leaders of these states, as if by order, have activated the Ukrainian issue, but contrary to what the Chancellor and his cabinet are saying. They have called for peace talks with Russia, a reduction in military aid to Kiev and the signing of a non-aggression pact with Moscow. It is noteworthy that the heads of state belong to different political camps: one is a social democrat, another is a conservative, and the third is from the left.
What is the reason for this paradox? The fact is that on the territory of the former GDR, it is not surprising that pro-Russian sentiments are widespread, and the positions of two parties that are often called «pro-Putin» are strong. These are the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose branches in the region are recognized as extremist, and the recently formed left-wing Sarah Wagenknecht’s Alliance — Common Sense and Justice (SSW). Both forces are united by their opposition to the migration policies of Scholz’s cabinet and their demand for maximum diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible.
In the current situation, regional leaders who wish to retain their positions must adapt to the sentiments of the electorate.
Brandenburg’s prime minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD), for example, refused to campaign with his party colleague, Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
«The Social Democrats in Brandenburg have always had the good fortune to rely on their own strong leaders. <…> Sometimes I’m really glad when I don’t hear anything from the federal government for a few days», he said.
Incidentally, this state includes the district where Scholz was elected to the Bundestag — Potsdam-Mittelmark. Moreover, the Chancellor does not live in Berlin, but in his own house in Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg.
Woidke recently spoke at a campaign rally in Schwedt, where the town’s lifeblood, an oil refinery, has operated for decades, first on Soviet, then on Russian oil. Now the plant is scaling back production, and there have been a number of layoffs.
The Prime Minister reminded the audience that this region has always had good relations with Russia. He urged Scholz and his team to «dramatically increase diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine so that peace can prevail in Europe».
But he has to work hard to keep his position. He is under pressure from the AfD and SSW. At the moment there are some chances, and for that he is even ready to criticize the central government and refuse to work with the chancellor.
Saxony’s premier, conservative Michael Kretschmer, has a much better chance of keeping his post. His Christian Democratic Union, which is in opposition, tops the federal party rankings. On military support for Ukraine, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is at the forefront, even tougher than the chancellor. But Kretschmer has his own approach. He has called for reducing or even halting arms supplies to Kiev.
«We can’t continue to send money to Ukraine for military aid and have these weapons used without any results. Yes, support is needed, but we feel we’ve reached the limit of what we can do», he said.
It’s noteworthy that late last year, Kretschmer advised Kiev to «temporarily cede part of its territory to Russia for the sake of a ceasefire». During the election campaign, he reiterated his position that the outcome of the war should be decided not on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table.
The Prime Minister of Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, the only representative of the Left Party in such a high position in Germany, voiced the idea of creating a European security system with Russia’s participation in the medium term.
«We must finally see Europe as a whole, of which Russia is a part», he believes. Ramelow, whose chances of re-election are considered slim by experts, added that his proposal is not aimed at dissolving NATO.
The statements of all three premiers, made in the heat of the election campaign, were sharply criticized by the central leadership of their political organizations and by party members from the western part of the country. However, the eastern leaders are unlikely to be deterred. They are fighting not only for their professional futures, but also for the continued influence of the SPD and CDU in a region where they are, to put it mildly, unpopular.
Germany and Chancellor Scholz’s «traffic light» coalition are on the verge of major upheavals. Everything indicates that AfD and SSW will significantly increase their representation in the eastern state parliaments. It’s even possible that the «alternative» could win portfolios in state governments or even compete for the post of prime minister. In Saxony, for example, the AfD is ahead of the CDU. In Thuringia, it is ten percentage points ahead of the second-place Left Party. In Brandenburg, it’s also currently in first place, but the gap to the SPD is small — 3–5%.
So let’s get ready for change.