On some results of the 29th meeting of the leaders of China and Russia
It can be said that this was a routine visit under the intergovernmental cooperation mechanism between the two countries, which has been in place since 1996. Every year, the leaders of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation exchange visits to synchronize their views on the entire spectrum of economic cooperation and to clarify plans. This was the 29th such meeting. By the way, in addition to the communication between the heads of state and prime ministers, the systematic interaction between Russia and China includes 5 Russian-Chinese intergovernmental commissions at the level of deputy prime ministers and more than 80 joint coordinating bodies and structures. All this was not created overnight and works regularly. This should also be taken into account when talking about strategic cooperation.
On the other hand, in the current international environment, taking into account the sanctions pressure on both countries from the West and the importance of relations with China for Russia, this visit cannot be considered as just routine. For example, the mouthpiece of American liberals — CNN — tried to see a political subtext in Li Qiang’s trip, emphasizing in particular the fact that this was the first visit of the Chinese head of government after the unexpected and ongoing invasion of Ukraine into the Kursk region. «Li’s four-day trip, which includes a stop in Russia’s ally Belarus, is the first visit to Russia by a senior Chinese official since the Kremlin’s war with Ukraine took on a new dimension after the unexpected and ongoing military incursion by Ukrainian forces into the Russian border region of Kursk two weeks ago», the Americans write. Yes, from the standpoint of China’s official position, both Russia and Ukraine have now violated each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. And this changes some aspects of China’s approach. Did they in Kiev and Washington think about this?
But that was not the purpose of Mr. Li’s visit. By the way, the official report on the meeting published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry does not mention the war in Ukraine at all. And although the final joint communiqué, which runs to 31 pages (!), lists the common views of China and Russia on many international issues — from adherence to the UN Charter to Taiwan — this visit was more about economics. For some time now, the head of government in China has not been an independent political figure; global political issues concern him only to the extent that they fall within his direct purview. And Premier Mishustin is not particularly inclined to assert himself in international politics. He says he is implementing the consensus reached during the Russian president’s visit to China in May this year, as well as previous agreements. This is the way our countries are structured, which requires constant «impulses» from above and the involvement of top officials. Everything related to practical cooperation is the work of the prime ministers. That is why the 31-page communiqué contains everything that unites our countries and concerns the development of cooperation: industry, agriculture, tourism, science, education, culture, regional ties, humanitarian exchanges, and so on.
Even CNN, with all its reservations, admits that the main purpose of the visit was indeed economic — albeit with political aspects, of course. Given the tightening of American sanctions, Moscow and Beijing could have discussed ways to circumvent them (despite Mikhail Mishustin’s claim that 95% of mutual settlements are made in rubles or yuan), as well as ways to allay the fears of Chinese private companies hesitant to operate on Russian territory. «Trade between China and Russia reached record levels last year, exceeding the planned target of $240 billion. Russia has become extremely dependent on the Chinese market, goods and investments since the imposition of broad international sanctions against it following the invasion of Ukraine», CNN notes.
Regarding dependence. Yes, we depend on those with whom we are friends. China is currently the most important trade and economic partner. And there is probably little that can be done about it. But this dependency is no greater than the one the West offered us, which severed all ties in one fell swoop.
Russia and China have been on the same wavelength for at least three decades, and despite all the difficulties, cooperation is deepening. We have more similarities than differences. That is why, despite disagreements, despite external pressure, interaction is strengthening.
This was confirmed by the two prime ministers. «Sino-Russian friendship has withstood international turbulence and has a long history». «Russia and China, under the leadership of the leaders of the countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, have set a benchmark in new-type international relations». «Now, in the face of a complex and volatile international situation, the Chinese side, guided by the strategy of our leaders, is ready to move forward more resolutely with its Russian partners in the spirit of mutual respect, mutual trust, centuries-old friendship and mutual benefit, so as to elevate our multifaceted cooperation to a higher level for the benefit of our countries and peoples». These are all statements that Li Qiang made in Moscow. And although they contain an element of ritualism, as they are repeated each time during such visits, they reflect reality.
The recent visit objectively demonstrated the willingness of the two countries to deepen cooperation. Among the 17 cooperation documents signed were a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the chemical industry between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, two Memoranda of Understanding between the Ministries of Transport of Russia and China, a Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Customs Service of Russia (FCS RF) and the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) on cooperation in the operation of a single window mechanism, and a Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Construction of Russia and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China on strengthening cooperation in the field of green construction.
Another problem is that the intervention of third parties complicates relations. There are problems with settlements, and Western restrictions force individual Chinese companies to choose between Russia and other markets.
It would be naive to assume that China will go to great lengths to help a friend at its own expense. After all, these are government-to-government relations and national interests. But in general, China has already done a lot for us, probably not everything can be discussed openly. But cooperation in the military field, in microelectronics and other sensitive areas has existed and has not disappeared. It’s just that now is not the time to advertise it.
Speaking about industrial cooperation, Mikhail Mishustin recalled that Russia and China have joint projects in aviation and automotive industry, mining and gas chemical industry and metallurgy. It was noted that the parties intend to expand exchanges in high-tech areas such as space, cross-cutting technologies, artificial intelligence and the nuclear sector. In essence, Mishustin called for combining Russia’s scientific potential with China’s manufacturing and technological capabilities to achieve greater success.
Yes, mutual investment is needed, closer cooperation in high technology and the commercialization of high technology is essential. The question is, what can we offer to a country that is much more technologically advanced? Yes, industrial cooperation between Russia and China is a sensitive issue. The Chinese are not very eager to engage in it yet. That is, they do not see much benefit. We have to show them if there are any. Of course, Russia is interested in Chinese car giants localizing their production with us. But they are still looking more to the West. The markets there are wider and richer. So we need to make it more attractive, offer more favorable conditions. All of this was certainly discussed during Li Qiang’s visit, and not without benefit.
Undoubtedly, work is being done to solve the problem of mutual settlements, both bilaterally and within BRICS. Digital payments could be one solution. But since cryptocurrencies and settlements in them are a criminal offense in China, the discussion may be about digital yuan and rubles on special intergovernmental and interbank platforms.
We would like to see greater access to the Chinese market for Russian industrial and agricultural products in order to balance trade. After all, China still eagerly buys Russian oil, gas, potash fertilizers and timber, which form the basis of exports and greatly facilitate China’s access to raw materials. We would like to get a wider range of high-tech goods from China at acceptable prices.
All this is achieved as a result of agreements reached during such high-level contacts. Incidentally, the joint communique following the meeting states: «Continuation of constructive dialogue on the issue of Chinese vessels navigating the lower reaches of the Tumen River». The Chinese are interested in this river route to ensure military access to the Sea of Japan and to shorten the time for transporting peaceful cargo. Why not use this as a bargaining chip in our negotiations?
But there is also something for which we are certainly to blame. After decades of focusing on the West, we were logistically unprepared for such a rapid development of relations with our eastern neighbor. Mishustin practically admitted this when he said that in order to increase economic cooperation, it is necessary to continue building reliable transport and logistics corridors and to work on the joint use of the Northern Sea Route. To put it simply, Russian access roads to the Chinese border still leave much to be desired, there are not enough transshipment bases, warehouses, and sometimes even wagons and containers.
The Chinese, of course, will be happy to build all this with our money. But maybe we should build our country ourselves and plan decades ahead? Like the Chinese do.