France, as expected, has reached an impasse and is becoming ungovernable
It is difficult to even call the situation a government crisis, because there is essentially no government. The sacked cabinet of Gabriel Attal is carrying out technical tasks without making any decisions. The left-wing New Popular Front, which arithmetically won the snap parliamentary elections, believes it has the sole right to propose a candidate for prime minister to the president, but Macron has rejected every one of its proposals.
«The President of the Republic recognizes», said the Elysee Palace communiqué, «that a government presenting a unified program proposed by the parliamentary majority, the NPF, will always be confronted with a majority of 350 votes in the National Assembly opposing its decisions, making it impossible to function under such circumstances».
The president implies that the country is becoming ungovernable. The problem isn’t just the candidates for prime minister — there are plenty of willing candidates. The problem is the New People’s Front itself, a left-wing coalition that includes parties and proposes programs that raise the blood pressure of technocrats.
This mainly concerns «France Unbowed», led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon — extreme leftists who advocate policies similar to «seize and redistribute». They have joined the NPF and also seem to be vying for positions in the government, which means they are preparing ministers who will push their ideas.
Marine Le Pen declared that any decision taken by a government formed on the basis of the NPF, even without the «Unbowed», would be consistently challenged and the cabinet itself would be subject to a vote of no confidence. These sentiments are shared by members of other parliamentary groups, more than 350 members in all — the very situation mentioned in the President’s communiqué.
As a result, parliamentary work has ground to a halt and is paralyzed. It may seem that Macron himself has backed the country into a corner by calling snap elections (which isn’t entirely illogical), and that he is now deepening the crisis by refusing to appoint a prime minister.
«It seems that the president is not acting as an arbiter above our institutions, as provided for in the constitution, but as a coach who selects his own players and wants to form the government himself», said Lucy Casté, whose candidacy from the NPF was rejected by the president.
Indeed, the Constitution states that «the President shall ensure that the Constitution is respected and shall guarantee the proper functioning of the public authorities and the continuity of the State». So formally, Macron remains within the constitutional framework, but he can’t allow the formation of a government that won’t pass a single reform, not even next year’s budget.
What options does the President have?
First, he could try to form a parliamentary coalition that excludes the extremists — both left and right. That is, a parliamentary majority without Mélenchon’s «Unbowed» and Marine Le Pen’s «National Rally». Gabriel Attal and his foreign minister, themselves elected to parliament, are already working on this.
This would require breaking up the NPF and luring at least the socialists and environmentalists into the coalition. It’s hard to believe that the Communists would cooperate with the right-wing centrists. Working with the Socialists will also be a challenge, as their leader, Olivier Faure, has stated that they do not intend to «support a dying Macronia». However, some party members have signaled a willingness to form such a parliamentary alliance.
Nevertheless, this scenario would leave Le Pen and Mélenchon as the only opposition figures, allowing them to gain political capital for the next elections at any level.
The second option is to reunite the fragmented right and centrist forces. The schism (which could be called heresy) was again initiated by Macron when he decided to break free from Sarkozy’s control and create his own party, not very different from the previous one, if at all. Arithmetically, this would give the president’s party 166 + 47 = 213 seats. This is more than the NPF (193), but still short of an absolute majority of 289 seats.
In any case, this arrangement would allow Macron to appoint a prime minister from his own ranks, and the government he would put together would be able to function, albeit at a minimum. This scenario is supported in particular by all the right-wing factions of the remnants of Sarkozyists, Chiracists and Macronists. The others, however, insist on their independence and refuse to rally under any banner.
The third option is to appoint a non-political, technical government to serve for one year. If the President dissolves the Parliament and calls early elections, the next elections can only be held one year after the dust has settled; otherwise, it would be a chaotic situation with citizens constantly going to the polls. In this case, the first round would take place on August 3, and the second on August 10, 2025.
In modern French history, there has never been a technical government, although there has been a government of pure technocrats, but that’s not quite the same thing. The Italians, however, have made extensive use of this option, with no less than four such cabinets. The last one was led by Mario Draghi, who was appointed after the crisis caused by the pandemic.
The fourth scenario — Macron’s resignation, why not? This outcome is threatened by the relentless and “insubordinate” Mélenchon. A petition is already ready, but it needs two-thirds of the votes in the lower house and the same in the Senate, which seems highly unlikely.
Moreover, even if Macron were to resign, it wouldn’t solve the current problem because the parliament would still be in place for another year, until July 8, 2025.
And the fifth option — leave everything as it is. The country has been without a government for eight weeks now — something unprecedented since World War II. Nevertheless, the Olympics have been held, current issues are being addressed, and Attal’s government can in principle begin to prepare next year’s budget, which ideally should be ready by now.
However, if legislators feel worn down by this option, they may not pass the budget either.
Meanwhile, Mélenchon is rallying his troops and calling for the president’s resignation on September 7. This is what he does best.