US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing aims to strengthen stability in US-China relations
Jake Sullivan received the highest honors during his visit. He had two days of extensive talks with Wang Yi, Member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, and Minister of Foreign Affairs. He also met with General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and was received by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The latest meeting, while largely ceremonial, was meant to underscore the importance China places on its relationship with the U.S. and the visit of a high-ranking American official. However, CNN highlighted one particular phrase from the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement: «Xi Jinping said that ‘China’s commitment to stable, healthy and sustainable China-U.S. cooperation has not changed,’ and expressed hope that the U.S. will work with China, view China’s development positively and rationally, and see each other’s development as an opportunity rather than a challenge».
In fact, these words are in the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement. It also includes a passage: «Xi Jinping noted that in a chaotic international environment, all countries should unite and cooperate, not divide and confront. People want to be open and progressive, not closed and regressive. China and the United States, as two major countries, should take responsibility before history, the people and the world, and be a source of global stability and a champion of common development. Most importantly, Xi said, «Although the situation of China-US relations and the bilateral relationship itself have undergone significant changes, China’s commitment to the development of China-US relations has not changed». However, the tone and nuances of Xi’s speech are unknown.
The content of the lengthy discussions between Wang Yi and Sullivan is also unclear. Diplomats have reported that when these two senior officials meet, their talks sometimes last for 10–12 hours. Notably, this is their fifth meeting in 18 months. There’s certainly a lot for Chinese and American officials to discuss. According to an official White House statement, this meeting «was part of ongoing efforts to maintain channels of communication and responsibly manage the relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as agreed by President Biden and President Xi Jinping at the Woodsdale Summit in November 2023. The two sides had candid, substantive, and constructive discussions on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. They discussed progress and further steps to implement the commitments made at the Woodsdale Summit, including counter-narcotics, military communications, and AI security and risks».
As we can see, the information provided is not very revealing for a three-day visit. Nevertheless, specific results of Sullivan’s trip were reported. These include an agreement for a meeting or phone call (or possibly both) between the leaders of the two countries in the near future. Observers immediately began speculating where this might take place — at the G-20 summit in Brazil in November, or at the ASEAN summit in Peru later that month. One Chinese expert even suggested that Biden might visit China after the elections. However, they are unlikely to be correct — judging by the current approach, the Americans are observing a moratorium on leaks before such contacts so as not to anger their partners. The Sullivan visit was also revealed at the last moment. Another agreement was reached on direct contacts between the two countries’ military commanders in the Taiwan area and the South China Sea.
At a post-negotiation briefing, Sullivan highlighted the key takeaway from the meeting: «China and the U.S. can work together to ensure responsible management of the relationship.» «That was the goal of this trip, and that’s what the diplomacy of the last two years has been about. We truly believe that this gives us the opportunity to increase the chances of stability in the relationship. But we also have to remember that there are always risks — risks of escalation, risks of misunderstanding, risks of something going wrong. We’ve seen that before in U.S.-China relations,» he said. «Mr. Sullivan and Director Wang noted the importance of this strategic communication channel over the past 18 months and expressed their commitment to maintaining high-level diplomacy and working-level consultations on an ongoing basis», the White House said.
All this is more or less confirmed (or at least not denied) by the Chinese side. Since the first face-to-face meeting between Joe Biden as US President and Xi Jinping in November 2022, both sides have made significant efforts to stabilize bilateral relations. In some areas, Washington and Beijing have managed to smooth out rough edges. Since then, for example, the US and China have established or resumed more than 20 dialogue and communication mechanisms, according to calculations by China’s Global Times.
Next come the points where both sides hold their positions. To put it simply: China is concerned about U.S. support for Taiwanese separatists and U.S. arms shipments to Taiwan, while the U.S. resents Beijing’s pressure on Taipei and its attempts to change the status quo on the Taiwan issue. China opposes illegal sanctions and trade restrictions, as Wang Yi puts it, against «China’s suppression in the economic, trade, scientific and technological fields», while the US accuses China of using «excessive industrial capacity» and non-market methods of competition.
On Ukraine, a quote from Sullivan: «We remain deeply concerned about China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base and its implications for European and transatlantic security».
This seems to be the «managed competition» that the two sides have agreed upon. Essentially, it means watching what the other side is doing with a smile and gritted teeth, and responding appropriately without reaching for the revolver. It is very similar to the US-Soviet relationship during the Cold War, which, as a reminder, the Americans won. How things will turn out this time remains to be seen. For now, both sides are managing to stay within the bounds of decency, diplomatically (if not hypocritically) sidestepping sensitive issues. As CNN, the Democratic mouthpiece, claims, «the two countries are making progress in stabilizing communication in their increasingly contentious relationship. Sullivan’s visit is one in a series of similar contacts on other fronts. According to the White House, John Podesta, the US president’s adviser on international climate policy, will visit China. In addition, a U.S. Commerce Department official recently visited Hong Kong and Beijing.
At the same time, the White House has successfully exploited the China factor in its election campaign. If we view Sullivan’s trip to Beijing as part of the Biden administration’s diplomatic strategy for «responsible management and stable relations with China» (which it appears to be), then the Democrats have demonstrated to the American public that they can stand up to China without sliding into open confrontation. Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership has been reassured that such predictable policies will continue if the Democrats remain in power. It will be business as usual,» said Sullivan, speaking on behalf of US presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Chinese are undoubtedly reviewing the dossier on vice presidential candidate Tim Walz. Some in the U.S. are calling him a «Chinese spy» because he allegedly traveled to China 30 times and even taught at a university there. But the main «danger» is that he speaks Chinese and has lobbied for China’s interests.
It can be concluded that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans under Trump, do not intend to completely sever ties with China. Instead, they seek to maintain predictable relations under the same «managed competition. As CNN reports, «Democratic vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris is expected to maintain continuity with Biden’s China policy, while Republican nominee Donald Trump has had combative and volatile relations with China as president and threatened to significantly expand U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports if re-elected.» As is well known, Trump behaved like a bull in a china shop in this regard, causing open confusion in Beijing. Now he continues to make equally sharp statements that are alarming in their unpredictability. It’s clear who Americans will vote for if they don’t want to lose their jobs because of a collapse in relations with China. It’s also clear who Beijing will prefer.