Vladimir Titorenko, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Doctor of Political Sciences, shares his views on the situation in the region and beyond in an interview with GEOFOR.
- The world’s attention is focused on two main issues in the Middle East — the conflict in Gaza and the confrontation between Iran and Israel. Let’s start with the first. Russian diplomacy has repeatedly stressed that the only solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the creation of a Palestinian state and the peaceful coexistence of Israel and Palestine. Do you think it is possible to realize such a scenario in the near future? Or is there still a need to develop an effective mechanism for resolving the conflict?
The Gaza conflict is part of the broader Palestinian problem. Without resolving this issue, it’s unlikely that the conflict in Gaza can be completely stopped. Russia’s position here is quite clear: an independent Palestinian state should be created, thus realizing the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination. Of course, it is necessary to agree on measures to ensure the peaceful coexistence of Israel and an independent Palestinian state. But it would be strange if there were one set of rules for coexistence with Israel in the West Bank and another for Gaza. This would imply a division of the Palestinian people along political lines, which would be artificial. Besides, it’s hard to say which political organization the Palestinian people would vote for today. I doubt they would vote for Hamas, which initiated the current conflict. On the other hand, the response from Israel, especially from its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been excessively harsh. I believe that most of Israeli society would not vote for him now. So while the above scenario is possible, it is unlikely to happen in the near future. The war in Gaza continues, and it’s too early to talk about elections for a unified Palestinian leadership. So with whom can peace negotiations be conducted? Israel must also choose those who are willing to resume talks with the Palestinians in order to finally resolve the Palestinian problem.
- How are the U.S. and its allies influencing these processes?
The U.S. and its allies do not have a unified position. Some EU members have recognized the Palestinian state, while others have refrained from doing so. But virtually all European countries have condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza and called for an end to the bloodshed. Washington also clearly disapproves of what Netanyahu has done to the civilian population in Gaza. However, the U.S. is bound by its alliance obligations to Israel, including military ones. That is why it has provided and will continue to provide military aid, including arms. But the American administration is clearly unable to influence Netanyahu. Especially with elections coming up, the outcome of which depends heavily on the position of the Jewish lobby in the U.S.
- What is Russia’s influence on the conflict today? In this regard, I must ask about Mahmoud Abbas’ visit to Moscow, during which the situation in the Middle East, including the war in Gaza and the prospects for resolving the Palestinian issue, was expected to be discussed. How can Moscow influence the conflict while maintaining contacts with only one side of the confrontation?
Today, Russia is unlikely to have any direct levers of influence on the conflict, especially since high-level contacts with the Israeli side are practically non-existent, as is the case with the U.S. and even the EU and the UN. The role of regional players such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar is far more important today. They are acting as mediators. We should not underestimate the influence of those who are directly involved in the conflict through their support for Hamas — Iran, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. However, Russia can participate in discussions on ways out of the current situation through its close contacts with the Arab League, Egypt and other Arab countries, and, of course, by using the potential of its historically close ties with the Palestinian leadership of the Palestinian National Authority. Abbas’ visit to Moscow was one of the steps aimed at solving the Palestinian problem as a whole, not just ending the conflict in Gaza.
- Another important issue remains Iran and its expected or perhaps unexpected response to Israel regarding the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Will we see further escalation from Tehran? Especially since Iraqi militias allied with Iran have refused a cease-fire with Washington and intend to take joint action against the US and Israel in the region. Do you think this statement should be taken seriously?
The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel goes far beyond the Palestinian issue and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Israel has long feared that Iran might acquire nuclear weapons, which would radically change the balance of power in the region. Israel has tried to persuade the U.S. to launch a joint attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but it seems that’s no longer on the table — it’s too risky. The whole Middle East could go up in flames. Iran is not the same as it was 10 years ago; it has become much stronger militarily and has many allies in the region — in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, as well as among the Sunni populations of Arab countries. A war in the Middle East is not in the interest of any major Arab country, be it Egypt, Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Nor is it in the interests of most Israelis. It seems that only Benjamin Netanyahu and the radical politicians around him want it. If it weren’t for the Gaza conflict, the current Israeli prime minister would probably have lost his job long ago. But the war is helping him stay in power.
- Continuing on the topic of Iran, I have to ask: the Russian Foreign Ministry has announced the complete readiness of the text of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran, which is planned to be signed at the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October. What do you think, what decisions should we expect, given that very little is known about the content of the document?
The move toward such an agreement has been a long time coming. The strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran has existed for many years, not only in words but also in practice. So all that remains is to formalize it officially on paper. As for the decisions, the details are less important; they will become known in due time. What is important is that this partnership will cover all areas of cooperation — political, military, economic, energy and cultural-humanitarian. And this is only natural. Iran has been a long-standing partner of our country since the times of the Russian Empire. We have been connected by many things for decades.
- How do you assess Russia’s policy in the Middle East and its prospects in general?
Russia’s prospects in the Middle East were, are and will always be present. It is, after all, a region close to us. Russians and Arabs have had close relations for centuries, not only in trade. The question is how to put these prospects into practice. There has been some positive momentum, but I would like to see our relations with this region develop at a faster pace. It is a very promising part of the world, with a great future and a rapidly growing global influence.
- A few words about Ukraine — how could we not mention it in our time? Ukraine has repeatedly contributed to instability in regions such as Sudan and Syria, and recently even in Africa — in Mali. Why is Ukraine supporting such anti-government forces? Is this an initiative from Kiev, or is the West preparing «future job opportunities» for Ukrainian militants?
Russia has not displaced anyone from the mentioned countries. Either the former colonial powers left on their own, or the local authorities asked them to leave. A sacred place is never empty. Russia was invited there as a country that consistently fought against colonialism and supported the struggle for independence. Now Russia is in demand. However, Russia is not against other countries participating in the development of Arab and African states. Russia wants to help them become economically strong and politically stable nations, free from wars and conflicts. And this requires huge financial resources. So there’s enough room for everyone.
As for the Ukrainian mercenaries fighting within the armed opposition, this matter should be addressed by competent international bodies on the basis of relevant conventions on mercenaries to determine who is financing them and for what purpose. So far there have been no investigations into this matter.