A meeting of senior security officials of BRICS member countries, whose summit will be held on October 22–24 in the capital of Tatarstan, took place in St. Petersburg
Representatives from 21 countries attended, including Turkey, Serbia and even Vietnam. These meetings usually go unnoticed by the public, as they are routine events leading up to such summits. This time, however, the focus on the meeting is heightened due to the situation Russia finds itself in as the current chair of BRICS and host of the leaders’ summit. In the context of the ongoing military operation, security issues take on an unusual importance. Especially since 36 heads of state, nine of whom are full members of the organization, plan to attend the summit. Russia has had to provide security guarantees in the midst of the military operation, especially in light of the ongoing drone attacks. Ukrainian drones have crossed into Tatarstan several times this year.
Moreover, behind the scenes of the meeting it was reported that some countries, which are active as mediators in the search for ways to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, wanted to discuss their initiatives and Moscow’s reaction in advance. These include China, Brazil and India — all not only members but also founders of BRICS. It is likely that the issue of conflict resolution will be discussed one way or another during the summit, and these discussions need to be held with Russian representatives in advance. There should be no surprises, especially during Russia’s chairmanship of the group.
One option reportedly being considered is a possible discussion with President Putin about his hypothetical participation in a new peace conference on Ukraine, possibly organized by China on its territory. It is known that China and Brazil have put forward their six-point peace plan. This may explain the increased size of the Chinese delegation at the security meeting, which included Wang Yi, the head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party, a member of the Politburo, and China’s Foreign Minister.
The Chinese and Brazilian proposals are set out in a memorandum signed by Wang Yi and Celso Amorim, the Brazilian president’s special adviser. It calls on Russia and Ukraine to adhere to three principles of de-escalation: not to expand the battlefield, not to intensify hostilities, and not to provoke each other. The parties to the conflict should avoid targeting civilians and civilian objects, and protect civilians and prisoners of war. China and Brazil have called for prisoner exchanges, adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (in particular, refraining from attacks on nuclear power plants), and the convening of «an international peace conference at an appropriate time that would be recognized by both Russia and Ukraine». «Dialogue and negotiations are the only viable solution to the Ukrainian crisis», the document says.
The plan was proposed before Ukraine regained territory in the Kursk region, which partially undermines the China-Brazil document. Moreover, after Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s internationally recognized territory, President Putin declared that there was «nothing to discuss». Nevertheless, it seems that there is still a belief among the BRICS founders that the plan remains relevant. According to media reports, the parties intend to promote the convening of a new peace conference on Ukraine, where at least humanitarian issues could be discussed, such as the return of children taken from their homes without the consent of their parents or guardians, and an «all-for-all» prisoner exchange.
In addition, peacekeeping efforts are being made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has visited both Moscow and Kiev, as well as by South Africa.
All these proposals were discussed on September 11–12 at the BRICS security meeting chaired by Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chairman Sergei Shoigu. Even before the meeting, Shoigu did not deny that one of the key issues would be the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. According to him, Russia currently has many different proposals on the table, but the China-Brazil peace plan is being considered as the primary one. «We have discussed their six-point proposal», Shoigu said in an interview.
The fact that the Russian president himself took part in the security meeting and held separate talks with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi shows that there are still options for a peaceful solution. In his address to the participants, which was published in the media, Vladimir Putin focused on Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS, in particular on the integration of new members and the consideration of the expansion of BRICS, which now has 34 countries interested in joining.
However, just before the St. Petersburg meeting, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia appreciated the efforts of its friendly nations, Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Under certain circumstances, convening a peace conference under the auspices of China and Brazil could benefit American Democrats in their election campaigns, in which case the U.S. might support it in some form. Ending the conflict before the U.S. elections could demonstrate the strength of the Biden administration and Vice President Harris, who could present it as a key achievement to voters. So far, however, there have been no signals from Washington.
«We hear various statements from European countries, but we haven’t seen any statements on this matter (negotiations) from the country that is orchestrating this whole process, orchestrating the collective West», said Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Nevertheless, after the meeting in St. Petersburg, there were no new announcements about discussions on resolving the conflict in Ukraine, nor were there any leaks about increased security measures during the summit itself. There is no doubt that Moscow has provided the necessary guarantees and will ensure their fulfillment. Sergei Shoigu, who chaired the meeting, said a wide range of security issues were discussed, including the fight against terrorism, cybercrime, drug cartels and other threats.
Some clarity may come a month from now, when the BRICS leaders and partner countries meet in Kazan on October 22. Alternatively, news may come from New York at the end of September, when a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers is scheduled on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.