Despite the SPD’s modest victory in Brandenburg, the elections in the eastern states have revealed the impending collapse of Chancellor Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition.
Last Sunday’s elections in Brandenburg, Germany’s smallest state by population, could have either put an immediate end to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s political career or granted him a brief reprieve from an inevitable downfall. Had the Alternative for Germany (AfD) overtaken the SPD, Scholz would have shared the same fate as Joe Biden, according to the American publication Politico: his place as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor in the September 2025 federal elections would have been taken by the current defense minister, Boris Pistorius, the most popular politician in Germany and considered the «last hope of the Social Democrats».
Let me remind you that Brandenburg is the only region of the former GDR where this party has governed continuously since German reunification in 1990. Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, who represents the party, has led the state government for the past 14 years. He has even promised to resign if the AfD wins.
To improve his chances of success, Woidke declined to campaign with the chancellor, fearing the negative impact of sharing a stage with a politician whose federal approval rating is plummeting.
This is despite the fact that Brandenburg includes the district where Scholz was elected to the Bundestag — Potsdam-Mittelmark — and his wife, Britta Ernst, was the state’s education minister until last year. What’s more, the chancellor does not live in Berlin, but in his own apartment in Potsdam, the state capital.
«The Social Democrats in Brandenburg have always had the good fortune to be able to rely on their own strong leaders. […] Sometimes I’m even glad when I don’t hear anything from the federal government for a few days», said Woidke, who took a harder line on migration than the ruling coalition and also advocated a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis to secure his victory.
In the end, the Social Democrats narrowly edged out the Alternative for Germany: The SPD received 30.89% of the vote and secured 32 seats in the state parliament, while the AfD received 29.23% and 30 seats. Only four parties made it into the state parliament (88 seats in total). In addition to the aforementioned parties, the Sahra Wagenknecht Union (SWU) received 13.48% and 14 seats, and the CDU received 12.1% and 12 seats. The Greens and Free Voters, whose parties are part of the ruling “traffic light” coalition at the federal level, failed to pass the 5% threshold and were excluded.
The Alternative for Germany secured a so-called blocking minority in the state parliament. This means that the far-right party will be able to veto decisions that require a two-thirds majority, such as the election of constitutional court judges or the adoption of constitutional amendments.
It is worth noting that the «eastern storm» from the former GDR has, as expected, significantly reshaped the German political landscape. On September 1, the AfD also secured a blocking minority in the state parliament of Thuringia, where it came first, and in Saxony it will be the second largest party. Meanwhile, the SPD suffered disastrous results in these regions, receiving only 6.1% in Thuringia and 7.3% in Saxony.
«It was hard work. […] The Social Democrats worked so that our country wouldn’t have a big brown stain», said Woidke, who has a good chance of becoming prime minister for another term in Brandenburg. The fact is that in all three eastern regions, the parties that entered the state parliaments refused to form coalitions with the AfD. While Brandenburg is clear, the state governments in Saxony and Thuringia are likely to be led by representatives of the CDU.
«It is just great that we won. I had a feeling that something was going to happen», commented Scholz on his (temporary) rescue. According to Die Zeit, the chancellor would have been on the losing side regardless of the outcome: a regional SPD victory would be attributed to Woidke’s tougher approach to migration policy, while a defeat would be blamed on the “traffic light” coalition’s low approval ratings.
A poll conducted last week showed that at the federal level, 15% of respondents support the Social Democrats, while the Greens and Liberals have 10% and 4% support, respectively. This means that only 29% of voters would support the coalition parties. The CDU/CSU bloc leads with 32% support, followed by the AfD with 20%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Union has 10%, which is a solid result for a party that was only founded at the beginning of the year.
It’s worth noting that on September 23, the opposition conservative CDU/CSU bloc (in a separate vote by its constituent parties) officially confirmed Friedrich Merz as its candidate for chancellor in next fall’s federal elections. He is eagerly awaiting a response from the SPD.
Despite the shaky ground beneath him, Scholz expressed confidence in an interview with Tagesspiegel that the current coalition would last until the end of its term, that his party would win, and that he would be re-elected as head of the Berlin cabinet.
What does he hope for? Who will finally take off his «rose-colored glasses»?