Flickr
The confrontation between Iran and Israel in the Middle East is undoubtedly a major factor in shaping the future of the entire region. However, it is important not to reduce the situation to just these two actors — Tehran and Tel Aviv. Equally important is the interaction between Iran and Turkey.
Let’s continue to analyze the regional situation on the basis of our hypothesis of the existence of «three and a half» poles of power and influence (Israel, Iran, Turkey, and the Arab world). In this context, we can see that Israel is in deep isolation. While it continues to assert its power and has achieved an unprecedented increase in «conflict potential», this has come at the cost of an almost complete loss of «cooperation potential». Israel now has no regional allies. The «Abraham Accords» seem frozen, if not completely dead. The idea of an anti-Iranian Arab-Israeli coalition forming the basis of a «new Middle East» is almost unimaginable. This means that even if Israel achieves victories in Gaza and Lebanon (which is widely seen as inevitable), it will remain completely alone and surrounded by hostility.
This raises a critical question: Who will the Arab world align itself with — Turkey or Iran? Indeed, this question holds the key to the future of the region. One could argue that it is the most defining issue. From this perspective, the competition between Tehran and Ankara for influence over the Arab world is as important as the military exchanges between Iran, its allies, and Israel.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed the creation of a regional security structure shortly after the start of the war in Gaza. He also initiated a joint summit between the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League. In essence, this was a bid for regional leadership. Despite (or perhaps because of) the failure of this proposal to gain practical traction, Erdogan continues to position Turkey as a global leader against Israel’s aggressive policies.
Notably, Erdogan avoids mentioning Iran in his anti-Israel rhetoric. This omission stands out, especially considering that the world recognizes the current conflict as a war between Iran and Israel. For Ankara, however, it’s as if Iran’s role doesn’t exist; Turkey is deliberately ignoring the Islamic Republic and its involvement in the ongoing situation. Instead, Erdogan is trying to shift the focus to Turkey itself, with his latest claim being that Israel is targeting Anatolia, Turkish lands. This statement came at a time when Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israeli territory, leaving the world guessing what Israel’s response would be.
This approach is probably no coincidence. Turkey does not want to cede influence over the Arab world to Iran. There is a trend here: unlike the Turks, the Iranians are actively fighting the Israeli army. Iran enjoys great respect and authority in the Arab world, being seen as the sole defender of the Palestinian cause and now of Lebanese sovereignty. By contrast, Turkey’s contribution is limited to strong rhetoric and the (arguably controversial) image of being the only country in the region to have cut all economic ties with Tel Aviv.
From the outset, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, made it clear that his foreign policy priority would be to establish and strengthen ties with his neighbors, including the Arab Gulf states and Iraq. His first official visit was to Iraq, where he toured Baghdad, Erbil in the north and Basra in the south. After a visit to New York, he traveled to Qatar, where he consistently advocated for a new system of cooperation and security in the Gulf region.
The missile strikes on Israel probably served as a convincing «add-on» to Pezeshkian’s rhetoric, demonstrating Iran’s power and resolve in the Gulf. To seize the moment, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi quickly flew to the region. Earlier in the day, he visited Beirut and Damascus, followed by trips to Riyadh and Doha. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain announced that they would not allow Israel to use their airspace for attacks on Iran, as reported by Reuters. Notably, Iranian envoys did not visit Ankara.
Against this background, the Iranian parliament proposed the idea of a «security pact between resistance movements and supporting countries». If necessary, the emphasis on the «axis of resistance» could be softened to give the project a broader appeal. In essence, the proposal calls for the creation of a regional security structure under Iranian leadership, positioned as an alternative to the «Alliance of Islamic States to Counter Israeli Expansionism» proposed by Turkish President Erdogan in early September.
One might get the impression that Turkey’s and Iran’s interests are aligned — both want to create a regional security structure that includes Arab states and initially excludes Israel (although Israel could potentially join later). So why don’t Ankara and Tehran combine their efforts and present a joint initiative?
This is theoretically possible. However, it would require cooperation based on mutual trust, which currently does not exist. The interests of Iran and Turkey intersect in many areas, and they have yet to achieve harmony. Moreover, the Arab world is unlikely to make a definitive choice between them, preferring instead to play on the contradictions between its partners.
The key question here is whether Turkey and Iran are ready for dialogue. Discussions are certainly taking place, but they are currently at a «technical» rather than a political level, let alone at the highest leadership level. Pezeshkian and Erdogan met at the UN General Assembly in New York, and they are expected to meet again at the BRICS summit in Kazan. Much will depend on whether they agree to a formal bilateral meeting. If such a meeting takes place, it could shed light on the future of the Middle East after the current «hot» phase of the regional situation ends.
The agreement aims to establish a common defense structure to combat external threats and support each other in times of crisis. According to the text of the agreement, all countries or movements participating in the «Resistance Pact» will be obliged to provide each other with comprehensive economic, military and political support in the event of an attack by the Zionist regime or the US on the territory of any member of the pact.