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As the decisive round of the presidential election approaches, Moldovan society is divided into two equal halves: one looks west, the other east.
On November 3, Moldova will hold the second round of its presidential elections. The contest is between incumbent President Maia Sandu (who won 42.45% of the vote in the first round) and opposition candidate, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo (with 25.98%). Sandu advocates EU membership and a pro-Western orientation, while Stoianoglo believes that Moldova’s relations with the EU should not jeopardize its traditional partnerships with Russia and the CIS.
It’s a rare case, but Moldovan society is split down the middle. This was evident in the constitutional referendum on EU accession (the country officially became a candidate last December) held on October 20. The result: 749,719 voters supported European integration, while 739,155 were against. The pro-EU camp won by a narrow margin of 10,564 votes. This commitment to the European course must now be reflected in the constitution. However, the views of Transnistria (where only 40,000 out of nearly 456,000 residents with Moldovan passports participated in the plebiscite) and the numerous Moldovan migrants worldwide, estimated at nearly one million, were largely unrepresented. In Russia, for example, where only two polling stations with quotas for 10,000 votes each were set up, there are at least 200,000 Moldovans. It’s worth noting that many of them work seasonally, and some may have returned home for the winter holidays.
According to the chatter on the Chișinău market, American and European political strategists expect Sandu (with her nearly 70% disapproval rating) to beat Stoianoglo in the second round by a 60% to 40% margin. That is, if everything goes according to the West’s plans. However, there could be surprises, as the referendum on EU integration only narrowly achieved the desired result for Brussels.
In recent days, heavyweights have joined the election process.
«Russia did everything it could to disrupt the elections and referendum and undermine democracy in Moldova, including through illegal financing, vote buying, disinformation, and malicious cyber attacks. […] Together with our allies and partners, the United States supports the people of Moldova in their pursuit of a secure, prosperous, and democratic future», said Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed similar sentiments, traditionally accusing Russia of «hybrid warfare and the desire to derail Moldova’s pro-European course».
The West’s anxiety is understandable: losing Chișinău after the victory of Georgian Dream in the parliamentary elections would be too much to bear.
Let’s take a closer look at the opposition candidate, Alexandr Dmitrievich Stoianoglo, whom Maia calls «a puppet of the oligarchs and the Kremlin». He is running as an independent candidate, but is actually backed by the Socialist Party of former President Igor Dodon. The 57-year-old man is a native of Gagauzia, a sparsely populated region that favors closer ties with Russia. In 2019, after winning a competition based on EU standards, he became general prosecutor. But just two years later, Stoianoglo was arrested in his office on charges of abuse of office. This happened two hours before a press conference in which he had promised to expose abuses by the authorities. Several criminal cases were opened against him, but he was not found guilty in any of them. So, as a character in a popular Soviet movie once said, Alexandr has a personal grudge against Sandu and her team, as well as a desire for revenge.
During the October 27 debates, Sandu accused her opponent of having links to former President Igor Dodon, Moscow-based Victory Bloc leader Ilan Shor, and London-based exiled banker Veaceslav Platon.
«Stoianoglo is a Trojan horse, and we know who is behind it: Dodon, Shor, Platon. These debates are about two alternatives for Moldova: stagnation or development, stability or instability», she said.
«You call Russia an aggressor, but you have maintained diplomatic relations, including gas purchases, while at the same time joining sanctions against Moscow. You haven’t done anything. It’s because of your incompetence. We will correct your mistakes», the ex-prosecutor replied.
Let’s face it: in order to win, Stoianoglo will have to exceed all expectations. A crucial condition is the opposition’s willingness to unite and present a common front. So far, that doesn’t look good. But it won’t be the ambitious protest leaders who vote, but the voters themselves. Just remember the result of the referendum on a bright European future: 50% to 50%. So all is not lost.
And what about Sandu? Remember Nonna Mordyukova as the building manager in «The Diamond Arm»? She knew exactly what to do if the residents refused to buy lottery tickets: «If they don’t buy, we’ll turn off the gas!» Maia Grigorievna works the same way: «If you don’t vote for me, Brussels will end visa-free travel!» That really hurts. Until the end of 2025, Moldovan citizens can travel visa-free to all 26 countries of the Schengen area. What will happen after that if Sandu loses?
We’ll see soon enough; the wait won’t be long.