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The collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition has sent shockwaves across the Old World
On November 7, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier presented three members of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), who were part of the governing «traffic light» coalition, with certificates of discharge. They were former Finance Minister and party leader Christian Lindner, former Justice Minister Marco Buschmann, and Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger. Notably, another FDP representative, Transport Minister Volker Wissing, refused to leave his office and announced his departure from the party.
The president appointed Jörg Kukies, a social democrat who had been an adviser to Scholz, as the new finance minister. He led the German side in preparing documents for the G7 and G20 summits. On the same day, Kukies was sworn in before the Bundestag.
It’s not surprising that the government crisis occurred the day after Donald Trump was elected president. The Western media, by the way, called the day of the overseas vote «a day of great uncertainty not only for the United States, but for the entire world». The Democrats collapsed…
Events moved quickly in Berlin. Scholz demanded that the Finance Ministry include an additional 3 billion euros in next year’s budget, which already had a 10 billion euro deficit, to help Ukraine. This required taking out new loans. Note that in Germany, increasing the budget debt is only possible if the so-called «debt brake» enshrined in the German constitution is lifted. This is allowed only in the case of a financial-economic emergency, which can be declared only by the Bundestag. Lindner refused to support the head of government.
An emergency meeting of the Coalition Committee, consisting of the leaders of the parties in the coalition and the leaders of their parliamentary groups, was then held at the Federal Chancellery. At the meeting, the liberal Lindner proposed to agree to hold early parliamentary elections in the country. An enraged Scholz immediately dismissed him with the words «for repeated breach of trust and narrow-mindedness».
As a result, the ruling coalition lost its majority in parliament. Meanwhile, the Greens assured that they would stand by the head of the cabinet (now a caretaker government) until the end. The leader declared that he would bring a vote of confidence in his government to the Bundestag on January 15, paving the way for early elections at the end of March (by Sunday, March 16 at the latest). German media have noted an earlier date — March 9.
In the Old World, the collapse of the coalition in Germany, the world’s third largest economy and the «locomotive» of the European Union, has caused serious concern (even panic!) because of the threat of political paralysis in the EU. «Europe will not be strong without a strong Germany», said European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
In the figurative sense, a traffic jam has formed in Berlin — as expected, by the way. From now on, Scholz’s minority cabinet will not be able to pass any initiatives without the support of deputies from the opposition CDU/CSU bloc. On November 7, the Chancellor met with the leader of the conservative faction, Friedrich Merz. It lasted less than half an hour. The leader of the Christian Democrats agreed to discuss the bill that Scholz wants to pass as a matter of urgency only on the condition that he brings forward the vote of confidence to the coming days, not in January. Merz insisted that early elections should be held in the second half of January 2025. The conservative faction in the Bundestag unanimously called on Scholz to hold the vote of confidence by the beginning of the following week at the latest to avoid a power vacuum in the country. No agreement was reached.
Why is the Chancellor hesitating? Experts believe that he wants to use the remaining weeks before Christmas to secure the approval of the Bundestag for several key government projects. In particular, the implementation of last year’s EU decisions aimed at limiting the flow of refugees into Europe, including Germany. He also plans to complete several initiatives that have been started but not finalized: passing a law to stabilize the pension system, adjusting the tax system to reduce the burden on employees, and adopting a package of measures to support industry, especially the automotive sector. Scholz will try to push through the allocation of additional funds to the Kiev regime to help it survive the coming winter.
However, the Conservatives are unlikely to give the Chancellor a Christmas present.
The one exception might be the migration package, as it would be difficult for them to explain why they would vote against measures they themselves advocated.
In reality, Scholz’s chances of surviving this crisis are zero. Currently, the ratings of all the parties that were part of the «traffic light» coalition are lower than those of the conservative bloc. The SPD can expect 15% of the vote, the Greens 10.5%, and the Liberals, with 4.5% (which is below the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag), risk being left out altogether. Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU stands at 32%.
Even if the FDP is able to enter parliament, its hypothetical participation in Merz’s government would not be sufficient to form a viable governing coalition. Without delving into possible alliances with other political actors, the most realistic outcome after early elections seems to be a «grand coalition» consisting of the dominant Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats as junior partners — similar to the one under Angela Merkel until the 2021 elections.
At the same time, however, the 66-year-old Scholz is most likely headed for an honorable retirement. His leadership, which led Germany into foreign policy miscalculations and a recession, will, I think, eventually be perceived as a misunderstanding — if this politician is remembered at all.