AP
It remains to be seen in the near future what the Trump team will choose.
China’s response to the U.S. presidential election and its results has been generally calm and restrained. Unlike in other countries (including Russia), where the overseas show dominates front pages, major news stories, and prime-time discussions, Chinese television offered only sparse coverage of the U.S. election process, alongside reports on foreign delegations’ visits to China and the country’s relations with other countries. On November 7, China’s leading newspaper, the People’s Daily, published no articles about Trump’s «greatest victory» or the U.S. election. Its front page focused on the Chinese president’s visit to rural areas and agricultural development.
For those who understand China, this reaction is not surprising. China is primarily focused on itself and its internal affairs. The literal translation of the two characters that make up the country’s name is «Middle Kingdom» or «Center of the World». Historically, China has seen itself as such, based on its development and self-image. Today, China is returning to its roots and former strength, which is why events overseas are viewed with relative detachment. The Chinese understand that a change in foreign leadership in and of itself means little. Ultimately, the outcome of any external escalation depends on their own domestic successes. Thus, they remain focused on internal progress. While it may seem that China is indifferent to global developments, this is not entirely accurate.
Shortly before the U.S. election, one of China’s most prominent academic institutions, Fudan University, used computer modeling and artificial intelligence to predict a decisive Trump victory. Specialized agencies and think tanks that directly inform China’s leadership likely reached similar conclusions earlier, ensuring that top officials were prepared for a change in the White House well in advance.
«Our policy toward the U.S. is consistent; we will continue to manage U.S.-China relations on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation», said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, commenting on the U.S. election results. She also stressed that the presidential election is an internal affair of the U.S., adding, «China respects the choice of the American people».
Chinese President Xi Jinping made no public statements, other than sending a congratulatory telegram to Trump in accordance with standard diplomatic protocol, urging the two countries to strengthen dialogue, properly manage disagreements, and expand mutually beneficial cooperation. He stated that stable and robust U.S.-China relations serve the interests of both nations and are in line with global expectations.
Journalists speculated about whether Xi personally called Trump, but the misunderstanding stemmed from translation nuances. The characters used in official statements can mean «send a telegram» or «make a phone call». Mao Ning reiterated that it was a telegram, like those sent by many other world leaders.
In professional circles in China, the election result has sparked lively discussions and predictions about the future of bilateral relations. Some voices recall the trade war initiated by Trump during his first term. Others note that Trump’s current rhetoric may not match actual policy, as both he and China have changed significantly. During the Biden presidency, which largely continued Trump’s anti-China policies, China strengthened itself and adapted to U.S. sanctions. China has particularly excelled in microelectronics production, a sector that Washington hoped to use to contain it. Sanctions in other sectors have been weakened or circumvented by China, sometimes to the detriment of the United States.
Trump is threatening to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese imports. However, as a businessman in the White House, he may reconsider, as most consumer goods in American stores come from China. China, in turn, buys a significant amount from the U.S. and will not stand idly by.
Trump is likely to weigh China’s potential responses and how they might affect his presidency. During his previous term, for example, China imposed higher tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products, damaging Trump’s electoral support. A repeat could lead to the risk of impeachment, a scenario that Democrats are eagerly anticipating.
While China is officially recognized in the U.S. as «strategic competitor №1» and an ideological rival, Chinese strategy focuses on internal development, not necessarily direct confrontation with the U.S.. Although U.S. rhetoric views China’s rise as a threat, this perspective may change over time. Trump’s pledge to end wars, not start them, makes open conflict with China, including over Taiwan, unlikely. But China remains a challenge to U.S. hegemony, and containment efforts will continue, especially by allied regional partners such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines.
After the dust settles from the election show, we are likely to see a continuation of the controlled competition between the two superpowers that we saw during Biden’s term. Whether cooperation or confrontation will prevail remains to be seen.
The presence of Elon Musk, who has major business interests in China, and Vice President J.D. Vance — described as a «Chinese agent of influence» in the U.S. — on Trump’s team suggests a cautious approach to China. Many influential figures on the Forbes list of America’s top hundred also favor stable relations with China. Moreover, Trump’s primary economic goal of reviving American industry requires cooperation with China, which produces about 30 percent of the world’s industrial output.
Some believe that the U.S. will leave Russia alone if it focuses on China. This is an illusion. Optimists claim that Trump’s plan to «pull Russia away from China» is impossible because of the depth of the Russian-Chinese relationship. Yet similar shifts have occurred in the past, separating China from the USSR and nearly leading to military conflict. While times have changed, nothing is guaranteed. Much will depend on the wisdom of Russian and Chinese leaders, as well as countless other factors. Like China, Russia must focus on self-improvement to minimize its dependence on U.S. electoral dynamics and new American policies.