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This is the third verse of the Algerian national anthem. They seem to be moving from words to action.
The relations between France and Algeria are developing on a very complicated curve. Now, for example, that curve is going completely off the rails. The Professional Association of Banks and Financial Institutions of Algeria — a state organization — recently invited Algerian bankers and informed them that import-export operations with France will soon be stopped.
The disagreements themselves escalated after France openly supported Morocco in the conflict over Western Sahara. Algeria supports the guerrilla Polisario Front, which claims independence for the country, while Morocco wouldn’t mind establishing its own protectorate there.
Most Western countries, and in 2020, during Trump’s first term, the United States (there were complex, multi-step «Abraham Accords»), supported the Moroccans. France was among them. In July, it recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, which led to a major scandal in which Algeria recalled its ambassador from Paris. And since the ties between the former colony and the metropolis are very close, the rupture in relations is all the more painful. As the French Foreign Ministry now says: «In Algeria, no one answers the phone».
Yes, by the way, in Western Sahara and its surroundings, including Morocco, there are 72 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, the main raw material for fertilizers. By comparison, China, in second place, has 6 percent. Then come the United States, Russia and Brazil.
The decision announced to the bankers is verbal; no official documents have yet been seen. But in a country like Algeria, state institutions don’t announce anything on their own, so all interested parties took this statement very seriously.
If this news is officially confirmed, it will mean a rupture in trade relations between France and Algeria. The first signs of trouble came in early October, when Algex, the agency that issues export-import licenses, warned Algerian merchants that they would soon no longer be able to obtain licenses for French goods — and that they should start looking for other partners. For Algerians who have been trading with France for years, these imports include everything from eyeglasses to chocolate.
The new measures will affect key categories: machinery, equipment, spare parts, a range of useful items such as plastics for processing, oncology drugs, consultancy and expert services in all fields. Each import operation is certified by an Algerian bank, and the door is now closed for the French.
An open question remains: what about gas supplies? Algeria provides France with 8 percent of its gas reserves. If something happens, it won’t be possible to replace this source quickly. The United States is the first supplier of gas to France with 25 percent. Norway comes next with 22 percent. The French try not to exceed a supply threshold of one quarter from a single source to avoid dependence. Therefore, this 8 percent has to be somehow «redistributed» among the others.
In France, they note that a similar — almost identical — crisis broke out between Algeria and Spain, which also supported Morocco in the dispute over Western Sahara. Despite the acute diplomatic crisis, Algerian gas continues to flow to the Iberian peninsula.
Another factor that could deter Algeria from taking a harsh gas decision is its relationship with the European Union, which could be severely damaged. The EU already accuses Algeria of constantly violating the Association Agreement.
France lost its position as the leading supplier of everything to Algeria in 2013 — it couldn’t compete with China. Now it is in second place, with Germany and Italy breathing down its neck. Although at the beginning of this year, exports of French products to Algeria actually increased, mainly due to chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and automobiles.
Even additives for bread baked in Algeria are French. Practically everything that contains milk is French. And firefighters only drive Renault vehicles to extinguish fires — how will they do it without spare parts? Not to mention that the Algerian diaspora in France will no longer be able to cross the Mediterranean on ferries. They are also French.
«All this plays into the hands of our competitors; they are already circling over our remains», says a member of the Association of French Exporters to Algeria. «My most loyal customers, with whom we’ve been working for more than ten years, have not signed contracts for 2025 because the Germans have already approached them, assuring them that it’s over with the French».
Why has a new stage of escalation occurred now? It’s clear that, first of all, Macron’s state visit to Morocco in the last days of October provoked the crisis. The main Algerian newspaper «El Watan» came out with the headline «Macron disregards international law». And if you read the article itself, it becomes surprising how Moroccans are still tolerated on this earth.
Secondly, an old Algerian tradition came into play. If you need to unite against someone, remember the revolution. And here, just on November 1, literally the day after Macron’s visit, is the 70th anniversary of the revolution. But the fact is that 82 percent of Algerians were born after the 1954 revolution, and slogans like «We threw France out» and «We closed it like a book» are left more to the official Algerian media, while they get facts and assessments from social networks.