AP
Before «making America great again», the new administration must clean up its «backyard», which is bad news for Latin Americans.
During the 2016 presidential primaries, Marco Rubio called Donald Trump a «fraud» who is dangerous and «can’t be trusted with the nuclear codes». In response, Trump called Rubio a «lightweight». Eight years later, another victory for the «con artist» in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has put the “lightweight” in the position of overseeing American foreign policy, which is supposed to mark the beginning of a new era — «Make America Great Again».
Raised in Miami in a family of Cuban immigrants who fled Fidel Castro’s revolution, Marco Antonio Rubio developed a deep hatred for communism and anything that didn’t fit into his idea of the «American way of life». Now that Donald Trump has chosen him to be the United States’ top diplomat, as the first Latino secretary of state, he will be expected to justify the trust placed in him and pay considerable attention to what has long been dismissively called America’s «backyard».
The 53-year-old Marco Rubio, who was vice chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence and a senior member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is known for his hardline policies in favor of Israel and against China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.
«He will be a great defender of our country, a true friend to our allies, and a fierce warrior who will not back down in the face of our adversaries», Trump said in announcing his decision to nominate Rubio as U.S. Secretary of State.
«Under President Trump’s leadership, we will achieve peace through strength and always put the interests of Americans and America first. I look forward to gaining the support of my colleagues in the U.S. Senate so that the President has a national security and foreign policy team in place when he takes office on January 20», Rubio responded.
Trump’s administration, American observers agree, will have to deal first and foremost with the most pressing issue — the confrontation with China — in addition to the Israeli and Ukrainian issues.
Professor Mauricio Cárdenas, director of the Global Leadership Program at Columbia University, notes: «Mexico will become the battleground for two of Trump’s key issues: immigration and China. He will use trade as leverage in negotiations with Mexico on illegal migration and may seek changes on specific issues related to aspects of the agreement that allowed Chinese investment in Mexico to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. market».
It’s no coincidence that Trump’s first call to a foreign leader after announcing his victory was to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, telling her that if she didn’t «stop this flow of criminals and drugs» coming into the U.S., he would “immediately impose a 25 percent tariff” on everything Mexico sends to the U.S. and promising to deport millions of illegal immigrants.
For Mexico, the prospect of such tariffs and deportations on this scale sounds ominous, and there’s no doubt that standing up to a U.S. president who cares little for diplomatic niceties is no easy, if not impossible, task.
But Sheinbaum found the strength to reassure her countrymen. «There is no cause for concern», she told the Mexican people. «We are a free, independent and sovereign country, and I am convinced that we will have good relations with the United States».
The second signal that Latin America will be important to the new administration was the invitation to a state dinner at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for the first foreign head of state — the «chainsaw president» of Argentina, Javier Milei. Donald Trump introduced Milei as his «star guest» and declared, to the applause of those who had paid $25,000 for the pleasure of raising a glass to the health of the newly elected U.S. president: «You have done an incredible job. Make Argentina great again».
It became clear that in his relations with Latin America, Trump will favor Argentina over its regional competitor, Brazil. By the way, American journalists recalled that loco («crazy») Javier promised during his presidential campaign last year to «get rid of» the Argentine peso by replacing it with the dollar, which would hand over the Central Bank of Argentina to the U.S. Federal Reserve System, thereby completely abandoning the country’s independent monetary policy. Moreover, this plan is still under discussion.
Obviously, U.S. policy toward the region does not stop at the Mexican border this time. With the wall separating the two countries, Washington has been looking at Latin America for the past decade, considering itself the sole master and therefore not particularly interfering in internal affairs.
China’s activities in the Southern Hemisphere, on the one hand, and internal dissatisfaction with migrants and the associated rise in crime, on the other, have forced Trump to change his views on the «backyard».
It is expected that the U.S. will increase pressure on Latin American countries to join it in the ongoing Sino-American geopolitical dispute. The Trump administration will continue to demand that Latin American countries make a choice in this rivalry. Latin Americans will resist this pressure because almost all countries benefit to some extent from multilateral cooperation. However, maintaining freedom of maneuver may come at a high cost, as it will create tensions in relations with the unpredictable Trump administration, which is ready to retaliate for disobedience.
In this, the new president will unconditionally support the new secretary of state. Rubio has long listened to Trump’s views on Latin America and will not hesitate to use new opportunities to promote his hardline views. In the Senate, he was one of the most outspoken critics of economic, political, and military cooperation between Russia and China; he will undoubtedly find ways to punish countries that get close to America’s geopolitical rivals or do not support Israel.
For many years, Rubio has called on the White House to «take the gloves off» when it comes to punishing what he calls «brutal dictatorships» — most notably Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and now Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Leftist governments should not be appeased, Rubio believes.
In the April issue of National Interest magazine, Rubio called for a shift in U.S. policy in the region toward «a new generation of potentially pro-American leaders in the Western Hemisphere, ready to strengthen partnerships with the U.S.» in security and trade, and deserving of greater American investment. «We must stop exporting progressive social values», he wrote, «and provide more support to our neighbors when they show a willingness to work with us, not with China».
Rubio does not hesitate to use his influence to intimidate leftist leaders who he believes threaten U.S. national security interests. Even democratically elected moderate politicians are targets. Earlier this year, he condemned Chilean President Gabriel Boric for criticizing Israel’s actions in Gaza, calling him «one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America».
Be that as it may, the Yankees have always considered and still consider Latin America as their «backyard». And it’s precisely from this «backyard» that Trump wants to end the history of a multipolar world and establish a «unipolar world of a great America». This seems to be the essence of US foreign policy in a disunited Latin America. From here, we should expect increased pressure on the countries of the Southern Hemisphere to join the U.S. in the ongoing Sino-American geopolitical dispute. There is no way to avoid a fight.
It is likely that the new administration will start with Venezuela, with which Trump has longstanding grievances: being vindictive, he cannot forgive the failure of Operation «Gideon» to overthrow and assassinate Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. A new scenario, as written in the American press, could involve an artificial escalation of tensions between Venezuela and Guyana amid the discovery of large oil fields. In the region, there is constant talk of a possible regional military conflict and US intervention.
This is Trump’s Monroe Doctrine — his «isolationist» foreign policy aimed first at preserving Yankee hegemony in the New World. And then, if all goes well, throughout the world.
Nothing new, really, except the old tried and true «big stick» approach.