Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text
The congresswoman's visit to Taiwan, which demonstrated contempt for the sovereignty of the PRC, will cost the United States and its allies dearly.
After the brief visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the island and the patrons of its "independence" seem to have faced a new reality. After actually a series of PLA military maneuvers off the coast of Taiwan, on August 9, the PRC military announced that their navy and air force would continue joint exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. That is, the four-day unprecedented live-fire exercises, during which the blockade of the island and the landing of troops were practiced, and dozens of Chinese Air Force combat aircraft were deployed in Taiwan's air defense zone, seem to grow into a permanent large-scale military presence of the PLA off the coast of the rebellious island.
Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Chinese edition of the Global Times, called what is happening in the Taiwan Strait a "new reality": "The isolation of the island has become a reality that can be implemented at any time, and the life force of Taiwan is clearly in the hands of mainland China. Taiwan's independence leads to a dead end, and there is no force that could stop reunification. After what happened last week, the whole world sees it more clearly." According to Hu, the exercises rejected the concept of Taiwan-controlled waters and airspace, as well as the middle line in the Taiwan Strait, the de facto border between the island and mainland China, which Beijing has not officially recognized, but both sides have mostly observed for decades.
Apparently, Beijing is still going to tighten and loosen the noose around the neck of the Taiwanese separatists as necessary. But the exercises at any moment can escalate into fighting and landing in Taiwan. With military measures, China supports economic sanctions, in particular, restrictions on trade with the island, which are already yielding results.
That is, Pelosi's ill-considered visit to Taiwan launched the process of Taiwan's accelerated return "to the bosom of the motherland" and unleashed Beijing's hands in terms of the use of forceful methods of influence. Counting on the immediate deployment of the PRC's military operations against Taiwan, the United States received an asymmetric response. Now Washington and Taipei will be in a state of constant tension and the need to save the "sinking" island.
"I am concerned that they are moving with the force with which they are moving. But I don't think they're going to do anything else," is how President Biden reacted to China's actions. Whether China will "do something else" depends on Washington's further provocations and Taipei's reaction. So far, the Americans prefer to keep their carrier groups, which were aimed at this region, away from the Taiwan Strait.
Meanwhile, opponents of Taiwan's peaceful reunification with the mainland are beginning to realize the consequences of Beijing's already imposed sanctions and are preparing for new ones. "The increase in tension in the Taiwan Strait may lead to a complication of the situation on the global semiconductor market," Taiwan's official representative in France Francois Chin Chun Wu said on August 8. "The semiconductor production chain is a complex process; if any conflict affects the production of at least one component of this technologically complex product, the entire system will cease to function. This will be a big problem for the entire global market," said Chin Chun Wu. He hints first of all at the ban imposed by the PRC on supplying fossil sand to Taiwan – raw materials for the manufacture of quartz and semiconductors.
First of all, Beijing's anger is dangerous for Taiwan, for which China is the main trading partner. Taiwan sells $ 150 billion worth of microchips and semiconductors to China alone and buys $ 23 billion worth of them.
The situation around Taiwan will affect the entire region, including US allies. Japan has already been shocked by the refusal of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi from the planned talks with his Japanese counterpart because of the country's position on Taiwan. And this is only a minor signal, which can be followed by real steps. And Japan's trade turnover with China is huge. China may also break off normal relations with other countries that reject the "one China" policy or align themselves with Washington on this issue.
"A storm is gathering around us," Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Xianlong said. – Relations between the US and China are deteriorating: unsolvable problems, deep suspicions and limited interaction. The situation is unlikely to improve in the near future. Moreover, miscalculations or overlays can easily aggravate the situation." Lee said that "Singapore's prospects have significantly clouded" and promised to take additional measures in the coming months to help people cope with rising prices.
We can also say that the United States provoked the beginning of a gradual rupture of the entire system of Sino-American relations. On August 5, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China announced eight countermeasures in response to the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. So far, they concern bilateral cooperation in the political sphere, but they give a signal not only to Washington, but also to its allies, as well as sympathizers. Countermeasures include the suspension of bilateral cooperation in the field of repatriation of illegal immigrants, legal assistance in criminal cases, as well as cooperation in combating transnational crime and in the fight against drugs. Cooperation between the military departments of the two countries is sharply limited. The US Department of Defense hastened to declare that it does not support the "movement of the island towards independence." But this did not affect the decision of the PRC. We are also talking about the suspension of cooperation on the climate issue, a key topic of bilateral relations, without which the Paris Climate Agreement would have been impossible.
Huang Jin, deputy head of the Law Society of China, explained Beijing's actions as follows: "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan undermined the foundations of Sino-American cooperation in these areas, which hindered its further development. The suspension of cooperation is justified on the basis of the protection of China's national sovereignty." We are talking about a gap in the most sensitive areas for the United States, in which Americans are primarily interested.
But this is just the beginning. Since last year, China has reduced its investments in American debt obligations from 1.1 trillion US dollars to 900 billion, and the process continues, threatening to bring down the entire American financial system based on debt and printing dollars. At the same time, China is reducing its foreign exchange reserves in US dollars. This process began after the announcement of the trade war unleashed against China by the Trump administration, but accelerated after the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange assets in the West. Other countries are also following this trend. Even Japanese investments in the US Federal Reserve's IOUS have fallen to a historic low of $1.2 trillion. In addition to China and Japan, Saudi Arabia and Brazil are reducing investments in American debt. Experts note that foreign investments in the US national debt have been declining as rapidly over the past six months as after the election of Donald Trump in 2016 and since the beginning of the pandemic.
And next up is China's gigantic trade turnover with the United States, which reached $ 750 billion last year. Depending on Washington's behavior and the speed of the implementation of the "double circulation" policy in China (reliance on the domestic market), China will refuse to trade with the United States with an increasingly wide range of goods, ruining American farmers and leaving consumers in the United States without cheap Chinese consumer goods.
As they say, the jokes are over. China has used some pre-conceived strategic plans that confuse the cards of opponents. Following the rules of the "Art of War" of the great Sun Tzu, Beijing is leading the case to seize the initiative, to victory without battles. And if the West believes that China will be afraid of retaliatory sanctions, it is cruelly mistaken. Chinese society, hardened by many crises and experiments, is much more resistant to temporary inconveniences than Western society. Trust in the ruling class in China is much higher than in the West. Disrespect for the sovereignty of the People's Republic of China, interference in China's internal affairs, demonstrated by Washington, will cost the United States and its allies dearly, literally and figuratively.